Dota2 · resolved market
Games Total: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3007a67d915e997d62df348dde02107169f479257cae9bbca7a6a66ee3988a84
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,147
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,061
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,147 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x363c…9b0ebacked Over | 51c | 3,000$1,530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,529.95 | 121 | 48.8%59 W · 62 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3308…f04bbacked Under | 50c | 2,079$1,039 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,040.66 | 358 | 50.6%181 W · 177 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd619…c461backed Under | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000 | 170 | 40.6%69 W · 101 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe974…f815backed Over | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd36…6674backed Over | 50c | 1,340$670 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$670 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f05…b18ebacked Under | 49c | 1,126$552 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$574.45 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -4.4wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5da5…e620backed Under | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 93 | 52.7%49 W · 44 L | +6.2wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xedf3…969cbacked Over | 51c | 980.49$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Under | 50c | 783.76$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388.37 | 1,154 | 47.7%550 W · 604 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7655…f0b2backed Over | 47c | 704.62$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.23 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.29per pick | 51cpaid | +59.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc69b…2076backed Over | 16c | 547.1$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.7 | 188 | 44.7%84 W · 104 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Under | 49c | 500$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255 | 268 | 46.6%125 W · 143 L | -7.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e7…bf64backed Under | 49c | 499.99$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.99 | 324 | 41.7%135 W · 189 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ee…519cbacked Over | 50c | 489.42$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.62 | 669 | 47.1%315 W · 354 L | -10.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc918…7411backed Under | 62c | 473.92$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.99 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd786…59b8backed Under | 49c | 469.99$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.69 | 68 | 51.5%35 W · 33 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -14%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Under | 49c | 457.94$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.55 | 168 | 42.9%72 W · 96 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf07b…def2backed Under | 50c | 425$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.5 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd88…dadbbacked Over | 51c | 407$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.53 | 65 | 53.8%35 W · 30 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4731…36d7backed Under | 65c | 303.23$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.25 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf3…70e3backed Under | 50c | 300$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 57 | 66.7%38 W · 19 L | +8.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd86d…ecf8backed Over | 50c | 300$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +2.7wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x91a2…e415backed Over | 49c | 297$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.53 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Under | 52c | 248.17$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.32 | 325 | 48.9%159 W · 166 L | -7.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12d3…42e4backed Over | 51c | 235.39$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35c8…ce5cbacked Under | 57c | 231.77$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.8 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Over | 19c | 212.85$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.64 | 892 | 38.1%340 W · 552 L | -42.7wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec33…fad3backed Over | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabe5…d99abacked Under | 50c | 200$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.28 | 386 | 49.5%191 W · 195 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c2a…a4bbbacked Over | 51c | 194$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.89 | 61 | 59%36 W · 25 L | +8.0wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +44.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Under | 50c | 190.5$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.25 | 377 | 45.9%173 W · 204 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3214…cfcbbacked Over | 50c | 155$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.45 | 163 | 61.3%100 W · 63 L | +8.3wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c33…b8f1backed Over | 50c | 153.6$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.8 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 64cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Over | 49c | 153.28$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.52 | 713 | 42.5%303 W · 410 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 47c | 152.73$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.94 | 121 | 55.4%67 W · 54 L | +7.9wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +134.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeca1…fd38backed Over | 50c | 130$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x233a…ae12backed Over | 53c | 110.2$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3743…7bc1backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdd…e70ebacked Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ed1…fd2abacked Under | 50c | 99.43$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.12 | 227 | 38.3%87 W · 140 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Over | 48c | 98.47$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.4 | 683 | 45.8%313 W · 370 L | -8.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…0e78backed Over | 51c | 98.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 412 | 48.8%201 W · 211 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6eb8…c02ebacked Under | 77c | 83.44$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.97 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Under | 51c | 77$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.73 | 116 | 49.1%57 W · 59 L | +11.5wins | +0.10per pick | 39cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe76f…39fcbacked Over | 51c | 76.57$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +3.2wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd9…fb31backed Over | 53c | 73.21$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.6 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed Over | 40c | 67$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.91 | 1,120 | 36.1%404 W · 716 L | -39.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b9d…9b0ebacked Over | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 311 | 26%81 W · 230 L | -17.5wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x905c…de69backed Over | 51c | 58.92$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e0a…07fdbacked Over | 51c | 55.35$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 243 | 49%119 W · 124 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23b5…97e1backed Over | 25c | 53.26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 130 | 44.6%58 W · 72 L | +6.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a6a…56bdbacked Under | 51c | 53.03$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.15 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4bc…4347backed Under | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.08 | 42 | 64.3%27 W · 15 L | +6.8wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x69d2…a218backed Under | 52c | 48.07$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.07 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb3…ca8bbacked Under | 52c | 41$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.78 | 70 | 45.7%32 W · 38 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x173a…b343backed Over | 50c | 40.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Under | 52c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.3 | 785 | 16.6%130 W · 655 L | -135.4wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x07c1…68f4backed Over | 48c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa728…eb33backed Over | 51c | 39.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8430…3961backed Under | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 303 | 56.4%171 W · 132 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc08…5acdbacked Over | 49c | 39.11$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.31 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd799…326cbacked Over | 48c | 38.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.71 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | -5.0wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2a7e…9dc6backed Under | 51c | 32.08$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.72 | 140 | 58.6%82 W · 58 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2da3…f258backed Over | 37c | 31.48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 438 | 60.5%265 W · 173 L | +44.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed Over | 44c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.19 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -40%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe90f…a908backed Under | 51c | 28.8$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.11 | 58 | 58.6%34 W · 24 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 47c | 28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.84 | 711 | 43%306 W · 405 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc11f…2429backed Under | 52c | 26.33$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.64 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.21per pick | 49cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0ed2…f444backed Over | 50c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cd0…fb3dbacked Under | 51c | 21.54$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cf1…d7febacked Under | 47c | 21.06$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.06 | 61 | 49.2%30 W · 31 L | +5.2wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e6f…eb72backed Under | 50c | 21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e38…a78bbacked Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Games Total: O/U 2.5this page
- Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Liquid (BO3) - The International PlayoffsTeam Spirit won
- Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Liquid - Game 1 WinnerTeam Spirit won
- Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Liquid - Game 2 WinnerTeam Spirit won
- Game 1: Any Player Rampage?No won
- Game Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Team Liquid (+1.5)Team Spirit won
- Total Kills Over/Under 45.5 in Game 1?Over won
- Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 1?Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.