Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 10°C on March 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x134a85f58a0fab4e345a85712e5a3facc2e0fb424b62eab527f1935103603db5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,693
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,693 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 117 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed Yes | 46c | 1,111$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600.94 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6c2b…36f4backed No | 63c | 946.52$599 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$599.11 | 73 | 47.9%35 W · 38 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea2…e97fbacked No | 14c | 855.4$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.79 | 350 | 18%63 W · 287 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 53c | 803.46$427 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376.9 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 6c | 661.51$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.06 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 32c | 640.7$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$436.59 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64b0…ab64backed Yes | 39c | 531.3$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.16 | 294 | 59.5%175 W · 119 L | +20.7wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4eb5…84aabacked No | 71c | 500$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354.98 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6036…cc41backed Yes | 42c | 493.47$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.78 | 93 | 33.3%31 W · 62 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 29c | 365.73$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.3 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 31c | 355.36$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.26 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 62c | 295.28$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.06 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x431c…4bbdbacked Yes | 63c | 250$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.5 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x293e…9962backed No | 9c | 247.95$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.7 | 157 | 59.2%93 W · 64 L | +12.6wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 38c | 239.17$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.52 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed Yes | 33c | 239.05$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.05 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9e…9ec0backed Yes | 49c | 232.71$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.83 | 90 | 46.7%42 W · 48 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 60c | 230.28$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.19 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe073…abb2backed No | 66c | 227.69$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.16 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 67c | 219.92$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.04 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad62…2aa9backed Yes | 28c | 209.57$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.19 | 165 | 32.7%54 W · 111 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 52c | 206.58$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.59 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca85…fe6cbacked No | 9c | 204.08$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.62 | 222 | 36.5%81 W · 141 L | +10.1wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked No | 18c | 203.31$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.54 | 342 | 19.9%68 W · 274 L | +18.6wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 26c | 200$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 45c | 195.55$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.55 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 11c | 189.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.23 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0eec…e587backed No | 9c | 177.14$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.92 | 88 | 35.2%31 W · 57 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 45c | 174.49$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.22 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xce31…19c4backed Yes | 30c | 167.23$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.4 | 165 | 20.6%34 W · 131 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x523f…d6ecbacked No | 69c | 165.9$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x68db…44f0backed Yes | 31c | 163.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.59 | 191 | 48.2%92 W · 99 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26b7…68a2backed No | 11c | 163.23$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.58 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 35c | 161.99$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.49 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a48…53d4backed Yes | 66c | 151.98$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.67 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4457…f3e2backed No | 29c | 145$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.75 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1dfe…b4f9backed No | 55c | 145$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.75 | 65 | 50.8%33 W · 32 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 49c | 138.15$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.28 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb157…f7cebacked Yes | 43c | 137.67$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3738…ed32backed Yes | 33c | 122.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.71 | 201 | 44.3%89 W · 112 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 35c | 122.84$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.29 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 66c | 120.89$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.03 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 13c | 115$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.05 | 398 | 10.8%43 W · 355 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 25c | 108.35$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.09 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 15c | 104.14$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.13 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b25…51eebacked Yes | 62c | 100.35$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.35 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7deb…7c0abacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 156 | 26.3%41 W · 115 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd271…37e0backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 310 | 29.7%92 W · 218 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x860d…fa0cbacked No | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 242 | 16.9%41 W · 201 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4a…1de1backed Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x148f…2f09backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.8 | 71 | 40.8%29 W · 42 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8eea…e285backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73 | 410 | 46.8%192 W · 218 L | +57.4wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x1348…7037backed Yes | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.45 | 176 | 65.9%116 W · 60 L | +12.7wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb6…c66bbacked Yes | 39c | 99.99$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.99 | 69 | 39.1%27 W · 42 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 26c | 95.35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.41 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fbc…4105backed Yes | 29c | 91.73$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.19 | 337 | 26.4%89 W · 248 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bba…a2eabacked Yes | 79c | 89.61$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.25 | 182 | 55.5%101 W · 81 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 56c | 87$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.39 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca41…8486backed Yes | 43c | 87$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.59 | 79 | 39.2%31 W · 48 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…c210backed Yes | 52c | 86.38$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.72 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b39…eae4backed No | 70c | 84.8$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.36 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -4.0wins | -0.27per pick | 54cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 15c | 80.01$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.38 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b09…aca6backed Yes | 26c | 80$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.2 | 262 | 36.6%96 W · 166 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 35c | 78.79$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.52 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca27…5c6dbacked Yes | 49c | 78.71$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.08 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 34c | 78.7$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.7 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 61c | 75.57$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.83 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked No | 71c | 70.09$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 54c | 69.2$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.91 | 314 | 42.4%133 W · 181 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c23…56ecbacked Yes | 44c | 67.57$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.57 | 301 | 41.2%124 W · 177 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffb…119dbacked Yes | 44c | 64.19$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.95 | 430 | 21.9%94 W · 336 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed Yes | 31c | 63.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.66 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 39c | 60.01$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.87 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3db6…4894backed Yes | 42c | 58.97$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.97 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf306…2155backed Yes | 27c | 55.68$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.68 | 57 | 33.3%19 W · 38 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80e1…47a8backed Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 242 | 62.4%151 W · 91 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc769…0925backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x025b…1793backed Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.25 | 126 | 32.5%41 W · 85 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed5…72a6backed Yes | 62c | 48.42$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.42 | 101 | 54.5%55 W · 46 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d6f…5e82backed Yes | 45c | 47.62$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.24 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x888f…23f5backed Yes | 28c | 47.06$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.95 | 173 | 38.2%66 W · 107 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 33c | 45.46$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.47 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f43…a1dfbacked Yes | 38c | 45.09$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.06 | 70 | 37.1%26 W · 44 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8095…d7abbacked Yes | 60c | 45$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.86 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a84…171fbacked Yes | 38c | 44.92$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.9 | 252 | 39.7%100 W · 152 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bcb…634fbacked Yes | 33c | 44.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.03 | 215 | 47.4%102 W · 113 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 36c | 44$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.02 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc156…08bfbacked Yes | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Yes | 37c | 42.27$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.68 | 346 | 17.9%62 W · 284 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed No | 55c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf9c2…d167backed Yes | 45c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xade1…9040backed Yes | 41c | 39.02$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.02 | 338 | 39.9%135 W · 203 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 72c | 35.65$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.82 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d4…899ebacked Yes | 42c | 35.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.74 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed No | 63c | 35$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7d3…a7a6backed Yes | 60c | 35$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.95 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 35c | 33.79$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.85 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked No | 60c | 33.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 55c | 33.34$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.86 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 10°C on March 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 11°C on March 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 12°C on March 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 13°C or higher on March 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 7°C on March 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 8°C on March 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 9°C on March 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.