Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 9°C on March 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x873434e24be4cf7b3c87f68e4d7d3c87a7687c6237861f79c45f855d0d97177b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $50,884
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $50,884 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 108 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd271…37e0backed Yes | 1c | 35,677$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.25 | 310 | 29.7%92 W · 218 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4eb5…84aabacked No | 71c | 500$353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.01 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9e…9ec0backed Yes | 14c | 484.77$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.56 | 90 | 46.7%42 W · 48 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed Yes | 69c | 397.39$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.41 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2287…139ebacked Yes | 58c | 380$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.4 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 58c | 354.61$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.08 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6516…7b7cbacked Yes | 61c | 311.94$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.84 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -3.0wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 18c | 310.99$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.82 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed Yes | 45c | 301$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 30c | 286.22$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.06 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 66c | 219.39$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.8 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes | 43c | 211.01$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.74 | 541 | 43.1%233 W · 308 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad62…2aa9backed Yes | 51c | 208$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.75 | 165 | 32.7%54 W · 111 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6036…cc41backed Yes | 30c | 206.25$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.09 | 93 | 33.3%31 W · 62 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea2…e97fbacked No | 30c | 201.24$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.24 | 350 | 18%63 W · 287 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked No | 30c | 201.18$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.03 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 11c | 200$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee2a…729bbacked No | 41c | 197.17$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.17 | 104 | 26%27 W · 77 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 70c | 186.77$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.34 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 35c | 164.99$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.6 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x387c…8622backed Yes | 61c | 164.67$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.97 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 60c | 151.05$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.1 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6036…d2ccbacked Yes | 60c | 150.23$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.68 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 65c | 136.38$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.2 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca27…5c6dbacked Yes | 68c | 123.98$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64b0…ab64backed Yes | 62c | 122.8$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.24 | 294 | 59.5%175 W · 119 L | +20.7wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 65c | 122.48$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.81 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 51c | 119.56$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.76 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 50c | 112.03$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.91 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 206 | 31.6%65 W · 141 L | -23.6wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked Yes | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4a…1de1backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68db…44f0backed Yes | 51c | 97.89$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 191 | 48.2%92 W · 99 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 59c | 97.48$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.27 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 17c | 94.05$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 49c | 93.62$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.72 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdf4…df5ebacked Yes | 43c | 93.03$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3738…ed32backed Yes | 57c | 93$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.1 | 201 | 44.3%89 W · 112 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75ea…1616backed Yes | 36c | 91.98$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.78 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe472…4360backed Yes | 63c | 84.7$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 53 | 28.3%15 W · 38 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb6…c66bbacked Yes | 26c | 80.36$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.89 | 69 | 39.1%27 W · 42 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 66c | 75.8$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.77 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x148f…2f09backed Yes | 43c | 74.69$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.25 | 71 | 40.8%29 W · 42 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked No | 39c | 74.34$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.68 | 368 | 19.6%72 W · 296 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x34a9…d343backed No | 55c | 72.55$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.55 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 28c | 70.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.3 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 29c | 68.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 34c | 66$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.37 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 56c | 64.95$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.82 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f15…0ce5backed No | 60c | 62.95$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 67c | 55.46$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.28 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfca…2db8backed No | 31c | 55$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.14 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfba8…8d3cbacked No | 60c | 54.54$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.75 | 90 | 55.6%50 W · 40 L | -7.7wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -16%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x91f2…e2d7backed Yes | 66c | 53.52$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.42 | 165 | 48.5%80 W · 85 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1f…9ff2backed Yes | 34c | 52.29$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 323 | 52.9%171 W · 152 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeaeb…8032backed Yes | 39c | 50.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c40…b828backed Yes | 34c | 50.68$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3319…977abacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 264 | 26.9%71 W · 193 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fc…938bbacked Yes | 31c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.49 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +3.7wins | +0.13per pick | 29cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99f1…946cbacked Yes | 40c | 49.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +3.6wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +40%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Yes | 42c | 49.75$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.04 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 59c | 47.42$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.45 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 43c | 46.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3db6…4894backed Yes | 34c | 46.68$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x888f…23f5backed Yes | 58c | 46.11$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.89 | 173 | 38.2%66 W · 107 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes | 48c | 44$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.32 | 321 | 47.4%152 W · 169 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed5…72a6backed No | 55c | 43.82$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.62 | 101 | 54.5%55 W · 46 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 54c | 43.64$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.56 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked Yes | 34c | 43.07$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 37c | 42.3$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.65 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked Yes | 39c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb9…c3f1backed Yes | 44c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +78%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf674…8564backed Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 162 | 34%55 W · 107 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xade1…9040backed Yes | 35c | 39.07$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 338 | 39.9%135 W · 203 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23a9…12f7backed Yes | 58c | 38.65$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed No | 47c | 37.87$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.07 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb46…af70backed Yes | 55c | 36.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed38…56c3backed Yes | 53c | 35.59$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a84…171fbacked Yes | 38c | 34.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.24 | 252 | 39.7%100 W · 152 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed No | 66c | 34.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.02 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 47c | 34.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.66 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xce31…19c4backed Yes | 41c | 33.78$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.98 | 165 | 20.6%34 W · 131 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed No | 54c | 33$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.18 | 358 | 43.9%157 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4156…997ebacked Yes | 49c | 32.79$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 61c | 32.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.7 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 40c | 31.6$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.56 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 56c | 31.32$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.93 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7d3…a7a6backed Yes | 65c | 31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3735…5a5bbacked No | 65c | 30.88$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.81 | 151 | 36.4%55 W · 96 L | -11.3wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -36%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x71b5…d067backed Yes | 45c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 82 | 46.3%38 W · 44 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3007…8f81backed Yes | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 70 | 44.3%31 W · 39 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9dd…1870backed Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -3.9wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0cab…7489backed No | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 103 | 71.8%74 W · 29 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 69c | 29.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c23…56ecbacked No | 59c | 28.73$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.73 | 301 | 41.2%124 W · 177 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef3…e35bbacked Yes | 50c | 28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 18cpaid | -41%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 69c | 28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.68 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb93…8fe7backed Yes | 63c | 27.3$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.10per pick | 64cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa7a…957ebacked Yes | 50c | 26.09$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +43%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 9°C on March 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 10°C on March 14?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 11°C on March 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 12°C on March 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 13°C or higher on March 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 7°C on March 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 8°C on March 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.