Dota2 · resolved market
Xtreme Gaming to win 2-0?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x13570369c6c6c3077085e6ec7a21457cc163b5cef666e3492291febf3406fad4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,259
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,900
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,259 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked Yes | 54c | 818.65$445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$444.62 | 237 | 36.7%87 W · 150 L | -5.4wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 42c | 578.42$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.49 | 196 | 43.9%86 W · 110 L | -8.8wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked No | 44c | 554.99$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.8 | 81 | 46.9%38 W · 43 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9e0…6ec6backed Yes | 58c | 433.54$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 44c | 424.43$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.68 | 84 | 57.1%48 W · 36 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc173…be7cbacked Yes | 58c | 345.06$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe66e…946bbacked Yes | 56c | 300$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168 | 210 | 43.8%92 W · 118 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 20c | 251.42$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.36 | 49 | 10.2%5 W · 44 L | -6.9wins | -0.14per pick | 24cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2d39…6053backed No | 51c | 211.77$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.04 | 1,036 | 47.2%489 W · 547 L | +15.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 55c | 200.64$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.7 | 935 | 46.4%434 W · 501 L | -15.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7d6…cab5backed Yes | 61c | 200$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121 | 513 | 64.9%333 W · 180 L | +16.4wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cb…85babacked No | 44c | 200$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -4.4wins | -0.16per pick | 42cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x41f4…ee16backed Yes | 57c | 152.15$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.7 | 385 | 47.5%183 W · 202 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29d3…b2edbacked No | 43c | 142.72$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.8 | 142 | 59.9%85 W · 57 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21f4…81a6backed No | 16c | 125$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 50 | 8%4 W · 46 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x209e…8bb4backed No | 45c | 117.75$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.16 | 805 | 44.6%359 W · 446 L | -25.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked No | 45c | 110$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.5 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3471…f17ebacked No | 46c | 105.82$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.21 | 1,155 | 47.8%552 W · 603 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3f…6712backed Yes | 64c | 95$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.8 | 107 | 41.1%44 W · 63 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08fa…f1e0backed No | 44c | 78.67$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.23 | 813 | 45.1%367 W · 446 L | -26.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -20%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdde7…0b2dbacked Yes | 33c | 71.55$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 44c | 60.57$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.92 | 92 | 56.5%52 W · 40 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07b1…b027backed No | 44c | 56$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.36 | 140 | 43.6%61 W · 79 L | +7.1wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x419b…6ea1backed Yes | 56c | 53.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 224 | 53.1%119 W · 105 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 44c | 47.7$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.71 | 39 | 69.2%27 W · 12 L | +4.4wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed No | 42c | 43.73$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 529 | 50.9%269 W · 260 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1c4…bbfbbacked Yes | 56c | 41.5$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.24 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc9d…de16backed Yes | 56c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 89 | 65.2%58 W · 31 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5a2…a9bfbacked Yes | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 194 | 55.7%108 W · 86 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabe5…d99abacked Yes | 54c | 30.87$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.67 | 386 | 49.5%191 W · 195 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9332…a3dbbacked Yes | 50c | 29.83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 760 | 48.6%369 W · 391 L | +26.2wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ee…519cbacked Yes | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 669 | 47.1%315 W · 354 L | -10.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f5…57e2backed Yes | 57c | 17.84$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 508 | 55.5%282 W · 226 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Xtreme Gaming to win 2-0?this page
- Poor Rangers to win 2-0?No won
- Poor Rangers vs Xtreme Gaming: Draw (1-1)?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.