Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: RE.Arise vs No Hoodwink - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x13aec6571e01cbf6cae10b5c6c0485c16ac903b825cb9c70d430d45075cc00ad
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- No Hoodwinkof RE.Arise, No Hoodwink
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,417
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,568
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,417 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5266…22acbacked RE.Arise | 7c | 1,898$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.01 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +4.1wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x93fd…a5edbacked RE.Arise | 8c | 1,487$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.94 | 406 | 44.6%181 W · 225 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08a5…db43backed RE.Arise | 22c | 1,486$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.17 | 74 | 52.7%39 W · 35 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b1f…d6d5backed No Hoodwink | 71c | 1,121$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.2 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6155…808ebacked RE.Arise | 41c | 980.72$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$401.21 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8342…6dc8backed No Hoodwink | 59c | 694.5$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.75 | 480 | 54%259 W · 221 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85b8…a8a9backed RE.Arise | 2c | 690.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed RE.Arise | 21c | 663.21$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.4 | 935 | 46.4%434 W · 501 L | -15.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked RE.Arise | 26c | 658.88$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.89 | 899 | 38%342 W · 557 L | -45.9wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -30%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51be…12c2backed No Hoodwink | 61c | 651.84$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.84 | 192 | 51%98 W · 94 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3de…6fe8backed No Hoodwink | 75c | 551.59$414 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.9 | 100 | 75%75 W · 25 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7a…8238backed RE.Arise | 32c | 481.76$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.13 | 77 | 35.1%27 W · 50 L | -5.2wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed RE.Arise | 15c | 451.54$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.68 | 915 | 53.3%488 W · 427 L | +48.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9aff…b136backed RE.Arise | 8c | 400$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 324 | 45.1%146 W · 178 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9f4…c1e4backed No Hoodwink | 69c | 363.77$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.04 | 426 | 39.4%168 W · 258 L | -39.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked No Hoodwink | 73c | 362.93$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.87 | 1,458 | 48.5%707 W · 751 L | +27.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked No Hoodwink | 70c | 362.8$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.87 | 1,702 | 41.2%701 W · 1,001 L | -44.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed RE.Arise | 35c | 266$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.21 | 691 | 32.6%225 W · 466 L | -26.8wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed10…15edbacked No Hoodwink | 62c | 229.99$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.2 | 881 | 66.7%588 W · 293 L | +76.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xec96…f5d7backed RE.Arise | 42c | 214.29$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 372 | 53%197 W · 175 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No Hoodwink | 67c | 185$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.05 | 793 | 41.7%331 W · 462 L | -13.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x249e…4fa6backed RE.Arise | 38c | 172.38$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.52 | 172 | 49.4%85 W · 87 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdccd…f41abacked No Hoodwink | 63c | 158.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.08 | 122 | 52.5%64 W · 58 L | +17.2wins | +0.14per pick | 38cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x924d…6cb9backed RE.Arise | 33c | 147.03$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.25 | 71 | 46.5%33 W · 38 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked RE.Arise | 26c | 116.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.9 | 892 | 38.1%340 W · 552 L | -42.7wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d59…bdf3backed No Hoodwink | 61c | 101.98$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.77 | 675 | 55%371 W · 304 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e6c…0c16backed RE.Arise | 23c | 100.97$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.22 | 191 | 35.6%68 W · 123 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked RE.Arise | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 143 | 36.4%52 W · 91 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15d1…ccfebacked No Hoodwink | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 546 | 59.7%326 W · 220 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed RE.Arise | 12c | 97.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 108 | 33.3%36 W · 72 L | -13.4wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked RE.Arise | 51c | 94.84$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.22 | 735 | 54.7%402 W · 333 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad2a…99a3backed No Hoodwink | 58c | 89.99$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.79 | 237 | 36.7%87 W · 150 L | -17.3wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked No Hoodwink | 76c | 86.17$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.49 | 569 | 45.2%257 W · 312 L | -18.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf20b…e27dbacked No Hoodwink | 49c | 79.84$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.72 | 117 | 46.2%54 W · 63 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed No Hoodwink | 66c | 65$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.05 | 1,120 | 36.1%404 W · 716 L | -39.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4078…a7f7backed RE.Arise | 40c | 60$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f0c…a691backed RE.Arise | 30c | 60$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x431a…50d7backed No Hoodwink | 62c | 58.31$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.31 | 213 | 44.1%94 W · 119 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb66e…ffc2backed RE.Arise | 36c | 55.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.86 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +4.8wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xde55…1d2abacked No Hoodwink | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 71 | 64.8%46 W · 25 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94e8…f707backed RE.Arise | 41c | 46.34$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 84 | 53.6%45 W · 39 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95e9…67b6backed No Hoodwink | 59c | 42.38$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.49 | 185 | 50.8%94 W · 91 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6df5…6430backed RE.Arise | 31c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 208 | 20.7%43 W · 165 L | -18.8wins | -0.09per pick | 30cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked RE.Arise | 29c | 35.84$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 535 | 38.5%206 W · 329 L | -26.6wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x633e…d305backed RE.Arise | 32c | 31.97$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 104 | 53.8%56 W · 48 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x762a…ed42backed No Hoodwink | 58c | 25.71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 85 | 32.9%28 W · 57 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked No Hoodwink | 77c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 587 | 46.5%273 W · 314 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked No Hoodwink | 77c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 440 | 49.3%217 W · 223 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x505f…645ebacked No Hoodwink | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.91 | 1,280 | 45%576 W · 704 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: RE.Arise vs No Hoodwink - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: RE.Arise vs No Hoodwink (BO3) - EPL Masters Group BRE.Arise won
- Dota 2: RE.Arise vs No Hoodwink - Game 2 WinnerRE.Arise won
- Game 2: Any Player Rampage?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.