TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: RE.Arise vs No Hoodwink (BO3) - EPL Masters Group B

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
RE.Ariseof RE.Arise, No Hoodwink
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$208,306
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$242,297

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $208,306 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 224 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3413…8ff2backed No Hoodwink57c50,099$28,556 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28,556.247146.1%217 W · 254 L+25.3wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+11.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x86b1…c094backed RE.Arise38c12,933$4,967 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,966.7565625.6%168 W · 488 L+14.7wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0224…292abacked No Hoodwink54c8,764$4,740 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,740.253852.6%20 W · 18 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9f9c…34d9backed RE.Arise22c8,181$1,798 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,382.84560%3 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+60.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd3b0…329ebacked RE.Arise42c7,000$2,951 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,048.5380056%448 W · 352 L+23.0wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0993…525fbacked RE.Arise42c6,628$2,788 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,839.581844.4%8 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b97…8d30backed RE.Arise46c6,337$2,898 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,438.9836248.6%176 W · 186 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e5e…7315backed No Hoodwink59c6,000$3,540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,5402138.1%8 W · 13 L-2.6wins-0.12per pick51cpaid-38.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked No Hoodwink58c4,796$2,769 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,769.331,52137.9%576 W · 945 L-57.8wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-26.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd06c…cdafbacked RE.Arise46c4,308$1,982 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,326.371,17943.1%508 W · 671 L+41.0wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf3ce…a57abacked No Hoodwink55c3,428$1,893 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,892.631,19759.2%709 W · 488 L+63.9wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+10.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x40db…ca8cbacked RE.Arise76c3,034$2,293 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$740.7553558.9%315 W · 220 L+17.9wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+1.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbfab…f067backed RE.Arise43c2,990$1,288 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,702.2547457.4%272 W · 202 L+9.9wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8342…6dc8backed RE.Arise43c2,983$1,282 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,700.0447953.9%258 W · 221 L+11.1wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6e44…21bcbacked No Hoodwink77c2,940$2,263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,262.7279159.4%470 W · 321 L+18.8wins+0.02per pick57cpaid-1.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb077…8fe8backed RE.Arise54c2,661$1,427 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,233.1819148.7%93 W · 98 L-5.6wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-4.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8d59…8b19backed RE.Arise41c2,283$933 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,349.954341.9%18 W · 25 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-28.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4301…ac39backed No Hoodwink77c2,107$1,620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,620333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.33per pick66cpaid-54.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed RE.Arise25c2,047$511 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,536.3867932.5%221 W · 458 L-27.2wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-28.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9aff…b136backed RE.Arise24c2,000$470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,529.9831444.9%141 W · 173 L+14.0wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+1.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x31a4…7afcbacked No Hoodwink46c1,920$883 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$883.294442.3%399 W · 545 L-20.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb9ab…f282backed RE.Arise48c1,774$852 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$922.7319742.1%83 W · 114 L-12.6wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-16%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x82d2…beeabacked RE.Arise49c1,767$874 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$892.4416746.1%77 W · 90 L-4.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a95…343bbacked RE.Arise43c1,754$747 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,007.5569235.3%244 W · 448 L+15.4wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf3a…fbfdbacked RE.Arise43c1,602$681 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$921.2350850.8%258 W · 250 L+8.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5266…22acbacked RE.Arise39c1,588$616 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$972.063256.3%18 W · 14 L+3.5wins+0.11per pick45cpaid+3.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1b1f…d6d5backed No Hoodwink66c1,515$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0007955.7%44 W · 35 L-2.6wins-0.03per pick59cpaid-8.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed RE.Arise38c1,452$557 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$895.0690753.7%487 W · 420 L+50.2wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+5.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6eac…ed37backed RE.Arise43c1,200$516 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68456949%279 W · 290 L+34.0wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+12.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xea58…0308backed No Hoodwink58c1,150$667 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6673641.7%15 W · 21 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-12.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc1de…21f5backed RE.Arise42c1,142$476 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$665.8329952.2%156 W · 143 L+19.9wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+13.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1614…0bedbacked RE.Arise41c1,067$440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$627.487739%30 W · 47 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-14.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x51be…12c2backed No Hoodwink47c1,058$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500.4718549.7%92 W · 93 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x149a…49d0backed RE.Arise43c1,000$430 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57050769.2%351 W · 156 L+33.7wins+0.07per pick63cpaid+10.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x08a5…db43backed RE.Arise46c1,000$460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5407452.7%39 W · 35 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc740…522fbacked RE.Arise42c988.44$418 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$570.441060%6 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+6.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1365…c82abacked RE.Arise43c980.49$422 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$558.8861256%343 W · 269 L+13.6wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c7b…6e9dbacked No Hoodwink77c979.53$754 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$754.2425246.8%118 W · 134 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-5.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc910…8bbcbacked RE.Arise49c964$472 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$491.6411154.1%60 W · 51 L+4.6wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+2.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbfbe…dc24backed RE.Arise43c960$413 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$547.27350.7%37 W · 36 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd19e…d70ebacked RE.Arise42c944.47$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$544.4720160.2%121 W · 80 L+10.2wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+12.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfbe8…bb28backed No Hoodwink55c936.97$516 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$516.42740.7%11 W · 16 L-4.8wins-0.18per pick59cpaid-27.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x8b6a…9fb9backed No Hoodwink58c840.06$483 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$483.221947.4%9 W · 10 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+27%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x249e…4fa6backed No Hoodwink59c839.45$492 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$491.7216750.3%84 W · 83 L-4.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-11.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7e59…7b8bbacked No Hoodwink57c838.13$479 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$478.8223336.9%86 W · 147 L-4.7wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-34.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xefdd…1e8abacked RE.Arise43c804.1$343 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$461.0215050%75 W · 75 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x53e9…5ef8backed RE.Arise16c799.99$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66818143.6%79 W · 102 L+7.1wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked RE.Arise25c741.67$187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$554.5788938%338 W · 551 L-46.3wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-30.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1747…4afcbacked No Hoodwink58c732.38$423 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$423.113943.2%60 W · 79 L+0.4wins0.00per pick43cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8aa0…1160backed No Hoodwink52c731$378 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$377.8814854.7%81 W · 67 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x335d…8c00backed RE.Arise43c726.92$316 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$410.92977.8%7 W · 2 L+2.5wins+0.27per pick50cpaid+62.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xebb9…1d15backed RE.Arise43c697.67$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$397.679535.8%34 W · 61 L-5.2wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-19.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9c42…b792backed No Hoodwink54c682$366 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$365.972147.6%10 W · 11 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x935c…59f8backed No Hoodwink60c661.34$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4001145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-24.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x09a6…73c7backed RE.Arise46c653.71$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$353.716654.5%36 W · 30 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x63b1…1676backed No Hoodwink77c649.35$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50014646.6%68 W · 78 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-9.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6bea…5d50backed RE.Arise44c627.8$276 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$351.747748.6%232 W · 245 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd385…34fbbacked No Hoodwink51c621.36$317 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$316.94259.5%25 W · 17 L+2.9wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5b10…9659backed RE.Arise43c600$258 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34249455.1%272 W · 222 L+6.0wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x91b9…889fbacked RE.Arise49c597.54$295 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$302.898644.2%38 W · 48 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-8.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x68b7…13d4backed No Hoodwink52c576.92$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a7c…8964backed RE.Arise47c556.12$261 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$294.7441050.2%206 W · 204 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xae27…6fb2backed RE.Arise17c547.17$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$456.295221.2%11 W · 41 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick24cpaid-22%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x45b2…95e2backed No Hoodwink41c531.11$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.57728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick27cpaid+42.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed RE.Arise29c520.99$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$371.5237632.2%121 W · 255 L-13.5wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-36.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed RE.Arise40c502.84$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$303.9258742.8%251 W · 336 L-26.8wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-26%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x07fa…f5cdbacked RE.Arise41c500$205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29545940.5%186 W · 273 L+14.4wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+9.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1c81…5518backed No Hoodwink52c487.93$254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253.725337.7%20 W · 33 L-6.4wins-0.12per pick50cpaid-27.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6b80…e5dfbacked No Hoodwink54c472.09$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254.932040%8 W · 12 L-2.9wins-0.15per pick55cpaid+0.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7f40…c8ffbacked RE.Arise68c467.2$318 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.1831052.6%163 W · 147 L+15.3wins+0.05per pick48cpaid-2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed No Hoodwink54c445.62$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240.0592846.2%429 W · 499 L-16.6wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-15.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd098…8d1cbacked No Hoodwink53c442.44$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234.5450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-27%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked RE.Arise45c438.67$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$242.1156545%254 W · 311 L-19.6wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-22.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No Hoodwink11c430.43$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.0978516.6%130 W · 655 L-135.4wins-0.17per pick34cpaid-66.7%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0xdccd…f41abacked RE.Arise43c427.71$186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$241.8312252.5%64 W · 58 L+17.2wins+0.14per pick38cpaid+19.5%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x5e6c…0c16backed RE.Arise35c427.4$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$277.418736.4%68 W · 119 L-4.7wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-15.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcecf…e84fbacked No Hoodwink52c425$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2211060%6 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+8.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xccf6…b29fbacked RE.Arise51c422.54$215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207.63560%3 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+8.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2140…0e12backed No Hoodwink54c415.88$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224.5812345.5%56 W · 67 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1bec…8d52backed No Hoodwink54c406.85$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.131040%4 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-19.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xde30…3159backed RE.Arise43c403.16$173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$229.819547.2%92 W · 103 L-7.3wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-17.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0fac…b89abacked No Hoodwink53c376.5$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20022450%112 W · 112 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x67b0…89d3backed RE.Arise56c357.57$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.171172.7%8 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick69cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked No Hoodwink77c343.74$266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$266.081,69141.4%700 W · 991 L-40.8wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-25.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5d5a…4289backed RE.Arise44c321.82$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180.5330357.1%173 W · 130 L+12.9wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe8e0…7eecbacked RE.Arise50c320$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.7143649.1%214 W · 222 L-7.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-16.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x08be…3220backed No Hoodwink53c315.6$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.2710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5d59…bdf3backed No Hoodwink53c307.21$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.8267555%371 W · 304 L+8.2wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x736d…c635backed RE.Arise37c295.18$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.1696942.8%415 W · 554 L-19.8wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3865…fcbebacked RE.Arise46c283.8$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.034654.3%25 W · 21 L+2.8wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+2.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7bb5…3a71backed RE.Arise46c282.61$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.616669.7%46 W · 20 L+5.7wins+0.09per pick61cpaid+1.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe1d3…b8debacked RE.Arise27c275$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200.2569552.2%363 W · 332 L+45.3wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+12.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed RE.Arise30c272.15$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$190.237146.4%172 W · 199 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd5e8…fafcbacked RE.Arise41c268.52$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.438444%37 W · 47 L+0.3wins0.00per pick44cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe9cb…f7dbbacked RE.Arise46c260$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.48842%37 W · 51 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9cb3…1367backed No Hoodwink61c259.26$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.4910030%30 W · 70 L-15.1wins-0.15per pick45cpaid-53.7%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x41a5…75bbbacked No Hoodwink52c255.13$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.6761249.7%304 W · 308 L+10.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x56ac…f2eabacked No Hoodwink53c244.11$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130875%6 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.15per pick60cpaid+21.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x42cd…2359backed RE.Arise42c231.2$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.26657.6%38 W · 28 L+4.2wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+10.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9d4d…4065backed No Hoodwink52c228.73$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.943562.9%22 W · 13 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.