TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs Gentle Mates - Map 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
3DMAXof 3DMAX, Gentle Mates
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$60,773
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$75,534

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $60,773 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 101 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x51db…f9b3backed Gentle Mates25c3,841$955 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$955.146,48042.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L-79.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x38ce…1581backed Gentle Mates4c3,450$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138650%3 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+31.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb1b8…9d1fbacked Gentle Mates14c3,303$462 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$462.4932832.3%106 W · 222 L+10.6wins+0.03per pick29cpaid+15.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ebc…a33dbacked 3DMAX77c1,670$1,281 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$388.2563157.1%360 W · 271 L+40.1wins+0.06per pick51cpaid-7.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc28f…6193backed Gentle Mates52c1,310$680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$679.5910956.9%62 W · 47 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked 3DMAX68c1,131$773 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$357.412,62247.6%1,249 W · 1,373 L-33.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-10.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa6c…a9b3backed Gentle Mates52c961.8$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5001,16354.3%631 W · 532 L-38.8wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-6.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed 3DMAX53c900.06$478 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$421.9769445%312 W · 382 L-24.7wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-18.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdbaf…f5d1backed Gentle Mates36c880.17$317 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$316.8661034.3%209 W · 401 L-12.0wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-9.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked Gentle Mates21c820.3$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.584,93337.4%1,844 W · 3,089 L-249.2wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-32.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked 3DMAX73c800$587 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213.041,77959.1%1,052 W · 727 L+104.8wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc0f1…8680backed 3DMAX74c750$555 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1952,52243%1,085 W · 1,437 L+42.7wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Gentle Mates26c750$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1952,62630.9%812 W · 1,814 L-105.4wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-29.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x79df…31d6backed Gentle Mates7c749.98$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.527831.7%88 W · 190 L-1.2wins0.00per pick32cpaid-8.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2529…548abacked Gentle Mates22c682.54$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.573,22551.2%1,651 W · 1,574 L+88.0wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1bf8…9d51backed Gentle Mates53c662.54$354 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$353.58955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+27.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Gentle Mates49c610.94$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.3661948%297 W · 322 L-11.6wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x72aa…90e0backed Gentle Mates23c588.99$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.654,22849.2%2,080 W · 2,148 L+59.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf1ee…519cbacked 3DMAX75c574.13$431 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.573,20245.6%1,459 W · 1,743 L-79.3wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-16%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8c0d…1068backed 3DMAX61c525.13$321 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204.632361.6%199 W · 124 L+0.4wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf876…1deebacked Gentle Mates50c500$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25019546.2%90 W · 105 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb378…e4c0backed Gentle Mates5c500$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2538312.8%49 W · 334 L-12.7wins-0.03per pick16cpaid-30.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5a9c…fc2bbacked Gentle Mates25c499.99$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1252821.4%6 W · 22 L-4.2wins-0.15per pick37cpaid-54.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xfe8a…23cebacked Gentle Mates16c475$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$762,21447.5%1,052 W · 1,162 L-5.6wins0.00per pick48cpaid-14.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Gentle Mates18c420.2$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.042,22141.3%917 W · 1,304 L-22.6wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-19.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4cf7…4b3abacked 3DMAX48c420$202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$218.415646.8%73 W · 83 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x24eb…75eebacked 3DMAX50c414.7$207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.1518043.3%78 W · 102 L-4.9wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbc57…1d94backed 3DMAX51c392.16$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192.16728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.21per pick50cpaid-51.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9767…b5c4backed Gentle Mates51c392.16$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2009850%49 W · 49 L+4.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc6ae…afe9backed 3DMAX51c388.33$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191.3325440.6%103 W · 151 L+6.5wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x82dc…5700backed Gentle Mates29c372.35$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.0987047.9%417 W · 453 L+15.6wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-14%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d79…9e95backed 3DMAX60c333.33$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.3316349.1%80 W · 83 L0.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7999…1d86backed Gentle Mates38c333.09$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.5524842.3%105 W · 143 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-9.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x34ab…4103backed 3DMAX75c332.77$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.772272.7%16 W · 6 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick67cpaid+7.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0c71…c0e5backed 3DMAX74c301.27$223 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.3336446.7%170 W · 194 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe881…fb3dbacked Gentle Mates47c297$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.5435466.1%234 W · 120 L+11.9wins+0.03per pick63cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc6f1…5729backed 3DMAX53c275.98$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.717065.7%46 W · 24 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick68cpaid-2.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x633e…d305backed 3DMAX76c250.62$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.1512937.2%48 W · 81 L-14.7wins-0.11per pick49cpaid-35.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked Gentle Mates28c241.86$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.524,69143.6%2,043 W · 2,648 L-83.2wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-21.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd46e…d10dbacked 3DMAX49c232.65$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.6553034.7%184 W · 346 L-32.8wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-19.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6770…c3bdbacked Gentle Mates10c228.84$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.9863038.6%243 W · 387 L-26.4wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-26.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed Gentle Mates49c217.25$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.392,06641.5%858 W · 1,208 L-49.5wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x34ec…2711backed 3DMAX48c208.33$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.338643%37 W · 49 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick40cpaid-1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbfeb…763ebacked 3DMAX49c203.52$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.5213742.3%58 W · 79 L-0.1wins0.00per pick42cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked 3DMAX64c191.59$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.9748948.9%239 W · 250 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7126…bfcbbacked 3DMAX63c189.21$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.4119548.2%94 W · 101 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xa0ce…7ecbbacked 3DMAX75c189$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.252839.3%11 W · 17 L-3.1wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-31.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9c4d…5762backed 3DMAX69c188.41$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.4117054.7%93 W · 77 L-3.8wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-12.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8a80…11c5backed Gentle Mates20c166.66$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.2275438.9%293 W · 461 L-38.9wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-24.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed 3DMAX62c153.71$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.324,06450.9%2,067 W · 1,997 L+69.5wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x59e2…1c55backed 3DMAX72c150$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4210153.5%54 W · 47 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd7b2…70f0backed Gentle Mates35c150$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.542831.3%134 W · 294 L-16.8wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-20.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xba8e…8e0dbacked Gentle Mates37c150$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.850358.6%295 W · 208 L-1.0wins0.00per pick59cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6efa…a0a7backed Gentle Mates39c149.98$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.0130247%142 W · 160 L-11.2wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe8e0…7eecbacked Gentle Mates18c148.26$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.871,84841.7%770 W · 1,078 L-69.2wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-21.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x423f…eedcbacked 3DMAX69c143$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.3340655.7%226 W · 180 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xde30…3159backed 3DMAX74c121.73$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.6524260.3%146 W · 96 L+13.0wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+9.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Gentle Mates19c115.62$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.83,45929.3%1,012 W · 2,447 L-279.9wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-43.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x07e2…6099backed Gentle Mates52c112.69$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.210657.5%61 W · 45 L+9.4wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+18.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x39a9…c69ebacked Gentle Mates18c111.11$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202835.7%10 W · 18 L-0.1wins0.00per pick36cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeef9…8731backed Gentle Mates50c110$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5537453.2%199 W · 175 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x9227…7cedbacked Gentle Mates37c105.81$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.1539847.7%190 W · 208 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid+3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xedf7…4003backed 3DMAX53c104.82$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.980740.3%325 W · 482 L-3.1wins0.00per pick41cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked 3DMAX77c103$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.362,13642.9%916 W · 1,220 L-68.1wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-20%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb909…d559backed 3DMAX49c100$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5117648.3%85 W · 91 L+5.5wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb36f…53d0backed Gentle Mates10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1021346.9%100 W · 113 L-8.7wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-8.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe50b…c2a8backed Gentle Mates50c100$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5024850.4%125 W · 123 L+0.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x76f1…f655backed Gentle Mates20c100$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2091743.7%401 W · 516 L-35.6wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-18.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xca08…08bdbacked Gentle Mates51c100$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5141250.2%207 W · 205 L-8.6wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf1f2…8c8dbacked 3DMAX70c100$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.8572353.5%387 W · 336 L+28.5wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1abe…f19fbacked Gentle Mates50c100$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.10per pick56cpaid+7.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xebff…70e5backed Gentle Mates20c97.99$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.892,77424.5%681 W · 2,093 L-295.8wins-0.11per pick35cpaid-50.7%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xe76d…5a75backed 3DMAX47c94.34$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5053444.9%240 W · 294 L+11.2wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x186a…559dbacked Gentle Mates53c94.34$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$508960.7%54 W · 35 L+4.1wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+10.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2217…1660backed 3DMAX64c91$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.768045%36 W · 44 L-3.0wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-18.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x42a2…863bbacked 3DMAX61c90.08$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.081384.6%11 W · 2 L+2.8wins+0.22per pick63cpaid+30%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb91c…ed66backed Gentle Mates23c89.31$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.7270042.3%296 W · 404 L-16.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-7.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x696a…823bbacked 3DMAX74c81.08$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.085362.3%33 W · 20 L-2.3wins-0.04per pick67cpaid-11%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8058…4cc3backed 3DMAX64c78.13$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.1316958%98 W · 71 L-0.5wins0.00per pick58cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2dbb…2e57backed 3DMAX54c74.07$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.073073.3%22 W · 8 L+4.0wins+0.13per pick60cpaid+26.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x765b…5043backed Gentle Mates37c66.87$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251030%3 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.12per pick42cpaid-46.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x77de…e67abacked Gentle Mates46c65.8$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.0152645.1%237 W · 289 L-20.2wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9929…15a8backed 3DMAX73c65.75$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.7517163.7%109 W · 62 L+5.7wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+2.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9051…32d2backed 3DMAX52c57.69$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.6930859.1%182 W · 126 L+12.3wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe80c…f3e6backed 3DMAX64c54.69$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.6941938.9%163 W · 256 L-8.5wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc6d…31cebacked Gentle Mates38c52.63$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010947.7%52 W · 57 L+9.4wins+0.09per pick39cpaid+14.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x92b5…2defbacked Gentle Mates52c51.92$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2780741.3%333 W · 474 L-10.9wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x90a7…5ac0backed Gentle Mates35c50$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.522746.7%106 W · 121 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d0e…4f01backed Gentle Mates49c50$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.567750.2%340 W · 337 L+0.5wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x505f…645ebacked Gentle Mates30c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.92,60452.6%1,371 W · 1,233 L+98.0wins+0.04per pick49cpaid-3.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8705…edbabacked Gentle Mates47c50$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.540140.6%163 W · 238 L-10.0wins-0.02per pick43cpaid+8.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x94d2…cfbdbacked 3DMAX61c45.85$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.852,11047.2%995 W · 1,115 L-62.2wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-18.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xccf6…b29fbacked Gentle Mates51c43.14$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$228855.7%49 W · 39 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf331…2489backed Gentle Mates42c40.48$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1721252.8%112 W · 100 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x67b1…63ecbacked Gentle Mates29c37.93$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1121623.6%51 W · 165 L-27.4wins-0.13per pick36cpaid-39.1%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0x0ba9…a8d8backed 3DMAX64c31$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.1640666.3%269 W · 137 L+10.7wins+0.03per pick64cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x56fb…3a1bbacked 3DMAX72c30.88$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.6313871%98 W · 40 L+13.7wins+0.10per pick61cpaid+12%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked 3DMAX59c28$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.571,59146.6%741 W · 850 L+30.3wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-11.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed 3DMAX65c27$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.55,28731.3%1,657 W · 3,630 L-383.3wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-37.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe27c…79e0backed 3DMAX51c20.1$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.8523161.5%142 W · 89 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick59cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.