MLB · resolved market
Padres vs. Pirates
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1426d73f1b89eb779247d6ba8d4810b7d7344ea1af1d9b7e9b06c20be4454ec4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Padresof Padres, Pirates
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $101,484
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $105,752
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $101,484 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x245b…00c5backed Padres | 57c | 40,939$23,316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,622.38 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfba6…375cbacked Pirates | 42c | 14,755$6,262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,261.73 | 867 | 51.8%449 W · 418 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Pirates | 43c | 12,300$5,241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,241 | 1,591 | 50.3%801 W · 790 L | +68.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05b9…af0abacked Padres | 57c | 5,509$3,163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,345.32 | 72 | 50%36 W · 36 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…dbbcbacked Pirates | 44c | 3,918$1,724 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,723.72 | 245 | 53.5%131 W · 114 L | +10.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Padres | 60c | 3,700$2,220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,480 | 981 | 49.8%489 W · 492 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd656…d127backed Padres | 55c | 3,663$2,015 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,648.47 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +4.7wins | +0.30per pick | 45cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked Padres | 53c | 3,636$1,927 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,708.96 | 418 | 50%209 W · 209 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cbe…12bcbacked Pirates | 41c | 3,369$1,395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,395.09 | 1,132 | 48.9%553 W · 579 L | -16.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Pirates | 43c | 3,311$1,424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,423.89 | 733 | 52.4%384 W · 349 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…ddfabacked Pirates | 43c | 3,219$1,384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,384.03 | 374 | 46.8%175 W · 199 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b1…6f55backed Pirates | 42c | 2,410$1,012 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,012.04 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | -4.8wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f3…d82cbacked Padres | 55c | 2,332$1,289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,042.63 | 76 | 51.3%39 W · 37 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Padres | 59c | 2,000$1,180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$820 | 1,352 | 50.8%687 W · 665 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Padres | 58c | 1,749$1,006 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$743.2 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Pirates | 43c | 1,741$746 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$745.55 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe6…ab9dbacked Pirates | 41c | 1,532$628 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$628.25 | 237 | 52.7%125 W · 112 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Pirates | 43c | 1,469$637 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$637.2 | 235 | 45.5%107 W · 128 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf62d…d3a0backed Pirates | 41c | 1,463$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 150 | 50%75 W · 75 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x11d7…52e1backed Pirates | 43c | 1,440$619 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$619.2 | 809 | 55.5%449 W · 360 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Padres | 58c | 1,357$781 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$575.53 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbde5…9c38backed Padres | 61c | 1,300$789 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$511 | 511 | 51.7%264 W · 247 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Pirates | 44c | 1,241$542 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$541.53 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e42…9003backed Pirates | 44c | 1,231$542 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$542.12 | 432 | 50.7%219 W · 213 L | +10.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Padres | 58c | 1,000$580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420 | 1,250 | 52.2%653 W · 597 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ff…252ebacked Pirates | 42c | 1,000$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x594f…392cbacked Padres | 58c | 999.99$580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Padres | 56c | 900$504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$396 | 416 | 43.8%182 W · 234 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb13d…2e90backed Pirates | 43c | 900$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384 | 686 | 56.4%387 W · 299 L | +38.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9a…06d0backed Padres | 56c | 819.64$459 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360.64 | 178 | 66.3%118 W · 60 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Pirates | 41c | 800$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328 | 958 | 50%479 W · 479 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Pirates | 38c | 714.69$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.07 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4673…d99bbacked Pirates | 43c | 650$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.5 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd55c…34febacked Padres | 59c | 618.67$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.66 | 376 | 49.5%186 W · 190 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff5c…ccbdbacked Pirates | 42c | 595.24$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 204 | 48.5%99 W · 105 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea7…7a4abacked Padres | 56c | 535.71$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.71 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed Pirates | 42c | 500$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 219 | 41.1%90 W · 129 L | -19.8wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -19%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9716…378abacked Padres | 58c | 500$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210 | 508 | 52.6%267 W · 241 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Pirates | 43c | 384$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.83 | 229 | 46.3%106 W · 123 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4cf4…15ddbacked Pirates | 43c | 360$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.8 | 61 | 55.7%34 W · 27 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0df8…b67ebacked Padres | 59c | 355.93$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.93 | 92 | 45.7%42 W · 50 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa3…072dbacked Pirates | 42c | 346.64$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.69 | 83 | 47%39 W · 44 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Padres | 59c | 338.98$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.98 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked Pirates | 11c | 255$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.98 | 475 | 4.4%21 W · 454 L | -20.9wins | -0.04per pick | 9cpaid | -72.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef75…5d78backed Pirates | 31c | 252.91$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.4 | 1,358 | 45.9%624 W · 734 L | +41.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cc…73e6backed Pirates | 27c | 250$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 145 | 39.3%57 W · 88 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3b…1d77backed Padres | 56c | 244$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.36 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed Pirates | 43c | 200$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 979 | 50.2%491 W · 488 L | +49.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x88cf…7d31backed Padres | 55c | 200$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 198 | 49.5%98 W · 100 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa78d…e8cbbacked Pirates | 43c | 194$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.42 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | +3.6wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed Pirates | 28c | 180$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 797 | 40.4%322 W · 475 L | -19.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Padres | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.49 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72fe…e2cebacked Padres | 58c | 157$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.41 | 519 | 55.3%287 W · 232 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d7…b646backed Pirates | 46c | 146.18$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.24 | 182 | 36.3%66 W · 116 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafbc…a8b5backed Pirates | 45c | 137.6$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.92 | 375 | 52.5%197 W · 178 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49f7…046bbacked Padres | 59c | 120$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.2 | 237 | 53.2%126 W · 111 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Pirates | 51c | 108.52$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.49 | 639 | 42.7%273 W · 366 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Padres | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 1,510 | 39%589 W · 921 L | -16.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fce…2566backed Pirates | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef63…96cbbacked Padres | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 467 | 53.7%251 W · 216 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x664b…8509backed Pirates | 45c | 90$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 65 | 43.1%28 W · 37 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cb…b857backed Padres | 54c | 81$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.26 | 38 | 65.8%25 W · 13 L | +5.2wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7742…a0bfbacked Padres | 59c | 66.61$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed Pirates | 43c | 60$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 163 | 47.2%77 W · 86 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d9…ec52backed Padres | 59c | 52.34$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce9a…30e9backed Padres | 59c | 51.08$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e5b…2b2dbacked Padres | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -3.5wins | -0.19per pick | 50cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Pirates | 43c | 37.91$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.3 | 2,045 | 53.8%1,100 W · 945 L | +32.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Padres | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 944 | 55.3%522 W · 422 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f19…72d9backed Pirates | 41c | 33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.53 | 416 | 49%204 W · 212 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…1eedbacked Padres | 55c | 23.64$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.64 | 64 | 45.3%29 W · 35 L | +5.2wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x60ab…d681backed Padres | 59c | 20.34$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.34 | 743 | 56.9%423 W · 320 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.