World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on August 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x14ceb845f1f41d90c7d624350150baf531e48c481e9d11b1b0b2cbfc0d508983
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,957
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,574
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,957 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 144 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 48c | 1,835$872 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$963.41 | 237 | 23.2%55 W · 182 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 33c | 882.24$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.31 | 218 | 54.6%119 W · 99 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3500…07f0backed Yes | 72c | 851.17$616 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.25 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 38c | 651.51$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.48 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed No | 40c | 629.95$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.98 | 57 | 49.1%28 W · 29 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed No | 3c | 585.84$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.99 | 104 | 14.4%15 W · 89 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 52c | 479.11$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.55 | 441 | 38.1%168 W · 273 L | +27.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 26c | 467.27$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.51 | 528 | 50.8%268 W · 260 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 13c | 406.11$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.95 | 266 | 32.7%87 W · 179 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 46c | 393.16$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.12 | 149 | 59.7%89 W · 60 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed No | 51c | 361.5$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.36 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -3.9wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e9…f1ccbacked No | 48c | 336.74$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.97 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 28c | 329.4$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.75 | 235 | 51.9%122 W · 113 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9169backed No | 47c | 319.77$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 133 | 57.1%76 W · 57 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…742dbacked Yes | 56c | 310$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.2 | 74 | 51.4%38 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd132…d314backed No | 49c | 306.8$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 59c | 286.55$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.69 | 95 | 58.9%56 W · 39 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaebd…a26fbacked Yes | 66c | 277.98$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.52 | 183 | 42.6%78 W · 105 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 77c | 273.72$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.76 | 141 | 26.2%37 W · 104 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2f…e889backed No | 49c | 266.73$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.7 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35fb…8511backed Yes | 50c | 243.07$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.62 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | +4.5wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 53c | 214$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.42 | 179 | 52.5%94 W · 85 L | -15.0wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 25c | 209.23$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.53 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 54c | 201.98$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.83 | 63 | 30.2%19 W · 44 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -16%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 47c | 179$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.94 | 285 | 58.9%168 W · 117 L | +14.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x80c0…c4f6backed Yes | 57c | 176.07$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.77 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 31c | 174.88$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.35 | 406 | 48.8%198 W · 208 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed Yes | 73c | 170.39$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.49 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x417f…d9a9backed Yes | 59c | 169.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.78 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | +3.9wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 43c | 161.17$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.14 | 183 | 48.6%89 W · 94 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 30c | 157.98$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.66 | 167 | 55.1%92 W · 75 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 45c | 156.38$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.63 | 399 | 52.4%209 W · 190 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda07…62a0backed Yes | 53c | 151.57$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.57 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 46c | 139.5$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.76 | 271 | 43.5%118 W · 153 L | -21.4wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xddc3…000bbacked No | 56c | 134.05$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 52 | 34.6%18 W · 34 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 19c | 132.94$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.65 | 149 | 54.4%81 W · 68 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 21c | 130$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.72 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | +6.1wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 47c | 128.29$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.29 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 42c | 126.15$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.31 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed No | 21c | 125.88$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.69 | 42 | 16.7%7 W · 35 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 59c | 122.44$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.08 | 80 | 25%20 W · 60 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabff…6b73backed No | 51c | 120$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 50c | 118.2$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.18 | 352 | 58%204 W · 148 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31b1…11d2backed Yes | 60c | 116$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.84 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.16per pick | 38cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 31c | 113$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.54 | 164 | 50.6%83 W · 81 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 51c | 111$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.61 | 144 | 54.2%78 W · 66 L | -9.8wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 58c | 105.6$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.83 | 77 | 41.6%32 W · 45 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 48c | 101.58$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.85 | 145 | 21.4%31 W · 114 L | -7.4wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 93 | 37.6%35 W · 58 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 55c | 96.89$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.12 | 311 | 52.4%163 W · 148 L | -12.4wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfddd…23debacked No | 52c | 96.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 28c | 95.76$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.99 | 73 | 35.6%26 W · 47 L | +9.4wins | +0.13per pick | 23cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes | 61c | 95.24$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.62 | 148 | 42.6%63 W · 85 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes | 51c | 90.04$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.84 | 72 | 48.6%35 W · 37 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 44c | 90$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.4 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +3.6wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 50c | 89.21$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.21 | 186 | 38.2%71 W · 115 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e2…c595backed Yes | 57c | 88.35$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.35 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…cafebacked Yes | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.72 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa8…63a4backed No | 49c | 87.66$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.89 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 52c | 87.54$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.23 | 230 | 44.8%103 W · 127 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa05f…0003backed Yes | 54c | 87$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.74 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | +5.1wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x65ce…6ff8backed Yes | 53c | 83.97$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.46 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 44c | 82.16$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.49 | 131 | 55.7%73 W · 58 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 31c | 80$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.9 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +5.4wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4a9d…a422backed Yes | 55c | 78.75$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.16 | 27 | 77.8%21 W · 6 L | +6.3wins | +0.23per pick | 54cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 48c | 75$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.7 | 108 | 37%40 W · 68 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…df39backed No | 32c | 73.98$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.59 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 50c | 73.88$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.24 | 180 | 35.6%64 W · 116 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…17abbacked Yes | 69c | 72.78$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.78 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 55c | 72.06$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.75 | 246 | 37.4%92 W · 154 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 57c | 71.2$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.55 | 173 | 45.1%78 W · 95 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 53c | 68.35$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.36 | 360 | 55.3%199 W · 161 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 41c | 67.02$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.54 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 21c | 63.47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 145 | 53.8%78 W · 67 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d1…1733backed No | 49c | 63.29$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.09 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 17c | 61.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 144 | 45.8%66 W · 78 L | -7.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 37c | 60.37$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.53 | 444 | 28.8%128 W · 316 L | -67.6wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 48c | 58.67$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.45 | 234 | 59.8%140 W · 94 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 55c | 58$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.27 | 106 | 29.2%31 W · 75 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 38c | 55.66$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.11 | 168 | 52.4%88 W · 80 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6715…9365backed Yes | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 74 | 27%20 W · 54 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -17%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 45c | 55.55$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.55 | 62 | 41.9%26 W · 36 L | -4.1wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 37c | 53.03$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.65 | 392 | 31.9%125 W · 267 L | +22.5wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +24%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 51c | 52.98$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.21 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | -5.7wins | -0.07per pick | 63cpaid | -14%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 45c | 51.98$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.29 | 136 | 46.3%63 W · 73 L | -10.5wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 48c | 50.09$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.82 | 343 | 54.8%188 W · 155 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34c1…1bb0backed Yes | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb8d…0511backed Yes | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -39%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2362…2ec5backed No | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93f7…c133backed Yes | 47c | 49.94$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.46 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…05a4backed Yes | 77c | 49.25$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed No | 45c | 49$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x666b…eedebacked Yes | 58c | 46.62$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.62 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +107.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd879…ae5dbacked Yes | 62c | 45.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.25 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +4.0wins | +0.28per pick | 57cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed No | 44c | 45.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x754b…d06abacked No | 52c | 45.02$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.27 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 52c | 45$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 42c | 44.04$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.53 | 148 | 27%40 W · 108 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on August 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on August 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on August 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on August 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on August 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on August 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.