World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on August 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe60b0003bc7912c54bc1827254c981d6ab1889b8fa40b64c119dcce64c610c76
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,134
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,292
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,134 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 102 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6715…9365backed Yes | 37c | 2,845$1,051 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,050.99 | 74 | 27%20 W · 54 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -17%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…742dbacked No | 74c | 2,101$1,550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$550.67 | 74 | 51.4%38 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 27c | 1,266$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.99 | 441 | 38.1%168 W · 273 L | +27.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 13c | 681.22$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.42 | 128 | 16.4%21 W · 107 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 3c | 639.64$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.29 | 104 | 14.4%15 W · 89 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 72c | 608.15$438 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.42 | 218 | 54.6%119 W · 99 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 63c | 491$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.96 | 311 | 52.4%163 W · 148 L | -12.4wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 65c | 445.91$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.28 | 149 | 59.7%89 W · 60 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed No | 73c | 443.98$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.77 | 141 | 26.2%37 W · 104 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 18c | 439.84$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.4 | 327 | 48.6%159 W · 168 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 31c | 381.99$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.42 | 57 | 49.1%28 W · 29 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 18c | 375.48$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.51 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 76c | 329.4$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.55 | 235 | 51.9%122 W · 113 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8116…465dbacked Yes | 30c | 308.26$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked No | 61c | 276.39$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.05 | 53 | 17%9 W · 44 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x859c…6eafbacked Yes | 23c | 233.78$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.77 | 62 | 24.2%15 W · 47 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 67c | 219.12$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.43 | 95 | 58.9%56 W · 39 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 80c | 209.24$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.63 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa769…843ebacked Yes | 32c | 202.57$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.51 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 34c | 199.99$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.41 | 63 | 30.2%19 W · 44 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -16%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 67c | 189.05$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.06 | 343 | 54.8%188 W · 155 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 61c | 174.2$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.21 | 406 | 48.8%198 W · 208 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…4c1ebacked No | 78c | 170$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 16 | 87.5%14 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 79cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 10c | 168.61$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.84 | 42 | 16.7%7 W · 35 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaebd…a26fbacked Yes | 11c | 148.66$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.47 | 183 | 42.6%78 W · 105 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 36c | 148$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.28 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | +5.8wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 18c | 131$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.59 | 103 | 20.4%21 W · 82 L | -6.7wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 30c | 126.61$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 77 | 41.6%32 W · 45 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes | 23c | 121$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.95 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 67c | 120$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.62 | 285 | 58.9%168 W · 117 L | +14.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa99…29afbacked Yes | 20c | 120$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 72 | 36.1%26 W · 46 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06da…af33backed Yes | 15c | 119.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 76c | 118.2$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.66 | 352 | 58%204 W · 148 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca28…ceb2backed Yes | 23c | 115$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.3 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e9…f1ccbacked Yes | 49c | 114.57$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.65 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 64c | 114.48$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.2 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 23c | 113.27$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 221 | 11.3%25 W · 196 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 38c | 113$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.54 | 230 | 44.8%103 W · 127 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9169backed Yes | 47c | 109.33$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.38 | 133 | 57.1%76 W · 57 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 74c | 108$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.53 | 399 | 52.4%209 W · 190 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56ab…784ebacked Yes | 41c | 106.05$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 54c | 105.79$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.43 | 266 | 32.7%87 W · 179 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 65c | 104$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.4 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 93 | 37.6%35 W · 58 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 271 | 43.5%118 W · 153 L | -21.4wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 58 | 55.2%32 W · 26 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.74 | 148 | 42.6%63 W · 85 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 71c | 98.24$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 136 | 46.3%63 W · 73 L | -10.5wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd44d…2305backed Yes | 18c | 90.97$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 72c | 89.73$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.93 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…df39backed No | 72c | 82.56$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.03 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 72c | 80.8$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.87 | 162 | 54.3%88 W · 74 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa8…63a4backed Yes | 34c | 80.54$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.59 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd4…6084backed Yes | 36c | 78.5$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.26 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -37%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74dd…2131backed Yes | 24c | 78.12$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.99 | 59 | 13.6%8 W · 51 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d1…1733backed No | 59c | 77.74$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.61 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 60c | 76.9$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.63 | 323 | 54.2%175 W · 148 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 21c | 74$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.63 | 108 | 37%40 W · 68 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a84…171fbacked Yes | 29c | 69.95$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.58 | 107 | 33.6%36 W · 71 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 29c | 66.85$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.18 | 444 | 28.8%128 W · 316 L | -67.6wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c3…be1ebacked Yes | 48c | 62.51$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.05 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30d6…50c3backed Yes | 35c | 60$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e2…06f4backed No | 66c | 59.66$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.28 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 19c | 58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 106 | 29.2%31 W · 75 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 35c | 56.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 186 | 38.2%71 W · 115 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed Yes | 32c | 55.97$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.91 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 62c | 55.71$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.36 | 164 | 50.6%83 W · 81 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2f…e889backed Yes | 50c | 55.28$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.46 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 78c | 55$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.2 | 360 | 55.3%199 W · 161 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x754b…d06abacked Yes | 28c | 53.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.21 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 36c | 53.48$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 181 | 58%105 W · 76 L | +13.2wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 79c | 53.41$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 168 | 50.6%85 W · 83 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 78c | 52.72$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 144 | 45.8%66 W · 78 L | -7.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 69c | 51.9$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 68c | 50.97$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.41 | 183 | 48.6%89 W · 94 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa35…bda4backed Yes | 39c | 50.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd052…d930backed No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 71c | 49.2$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.08 | 234 | 59.8%140 W · 94 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed No | 69c | 46.19$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.32 | 36 | 69.4%25 W · 11 L | +4.8wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 30c | 43.89$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked Yes | 33c | 42.43$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +54.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 36c | 41.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.86 | 179 | 52.5%94 W · 85 L | -15.0wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x34c1…1bb0backed No | 61c | 37.15$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.49 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5454…09f2backed Yes | 32c | 35.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 64c | 35.79$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.93 | 168 | 52.4%88 W · 80 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc11…dadbbacked No | 57c | 35.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.32 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 76c | 35.25$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.36 | 167 | 55.1%92 W · 75 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 72c | 35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.87 | 186 | 62.4%116 W · 70 L | +13.0wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…16f9backed Yes | 44c | 34.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.49 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 80c | 33.39$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.77 | 180 | 35.6%64 W · 116 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes | 40c | 33.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 72 | 48.6%35 W · 37 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 69c | 31.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.92 | 186 | 69.4%129 W · 57 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b9a…0f66backed Yes | 36c | 30.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 68c | 30.51$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 160 | 51.9%83 W · 77 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38d6…d072backed No | 71c | 28.16$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.14 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x104d…5abbbacked Yes | 36c | 27.94$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked No | 66c | 22.76$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 32 | 12.5%4 W · 28 L | -5.4wins | -0.17per pick | 29cpaid | -82.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6793…1869backed No | 78c | 22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.84 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 74cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dbb…7afdbacked No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0114…f0b9backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 66cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on August 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on August 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on August 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on August 2?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on August 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on August 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.