Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on July 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1559bc74d3bdd9a1aefe572b1e8696a52db9c38df033426fc6dc729e431bb480
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,996
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,534
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,996 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x17bd…f0babacked Yes | 79c | 522.86$412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.59 | 112 | 50.9%57 W · 55 L | +6.4wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb7…d9b8backed Yes | 37c | 400$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.44 | 72 | 23.6%17 W · 55 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 31c | 256.49$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.94 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc5…d6b7backed No | 58c | 175$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.1 | 274 | 61.7%169 W · 105 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b1b…2caebacked Yes | 40c | 174.63$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.23 | 229 | 37.1%85 W · 144 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 75c | 172.99$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.03 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 13c | 165.29$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.85 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 70c | 147.12$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.22 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 44c | 120$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.85 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 21c | 117.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.9 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 27c | 99.09$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.11 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 14c | 86.39$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.39 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 48c | 86.3$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.88 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 56c | 83.13$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.39 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 45c | 80.87$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.62 | 371 | 44.2%164 W · 207 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x108a…8159backed Yes | 21c | 79.55$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.47 | 587 | 32.9%193 W · 394 L | +34.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 38c | 76.83$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.18 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 79c | 76.05$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.05 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 38c | 75$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.75 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 15c | 70$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.79 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 60c | 70$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51dd…4053backed No | 64c | 70$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.8 | 403 | 52.4%211 W · 192 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 28c | 64.77$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.34 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa595…cdf1backed Yes | 79c | 60.22$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.72 | 155 | 61.9%96 W · 59 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 60c | 59.46$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.79 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 62c | 59.44$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.63 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6011…b31ebacked Yes | 24c | 57.25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.33 | 162 | 95.7%155 W · 7 L | +61.2wins | +0.38per pick | 58cpaid | +97.3%equal weight | 86+0.33 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 58c | 55.84$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.16 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 57c | 55.73$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x051c…c264backed Yes | 48c | 54.72$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.65 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 66cpaid | -33%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 62c | 46.79$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 40c | 46.42$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.78 | 471 | 36.5%172 W · 299 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…f053backed No | 46c | 44.96$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.68 | 180 | 46.1%83 W · 97 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52df…74f3backed Yes | 54c | 44.96$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.68 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 42c | 44.11$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.59 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 63c | 44$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.56 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 33c | 41.7$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.88 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 63c | 40$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.1 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7275…0225backed Yes | 45c | 36.5$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.08 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 41c | 33.68$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.87 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf950…6090backed Yes | 31c | 33.31$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.93 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +60.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 79c | 31.69$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.69 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 63c | 31.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.85 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 73c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.77 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 29.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.19 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 41c | 27.1$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.1 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked No | 65c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcff7…2fb1backed No | 63c | 24.7$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.56 | 214 | 51.9%111 W · 103 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked No | 62c | 24.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 57c | 23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 56c | 22.74$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50f4…04d4backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on July 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 30°C on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 38°C or higher on July 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.