Asian League · resolved market
Will Nagoya Grampus win on 2026-08-15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x15a8ec4304350ea81d9f518171bf107be2db52868d4a82326ed70bbb91e85f08
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,793
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $45,299
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,793 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Yes | 20c | 3,511$707 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$706.89 | 843 | 42.2%356 W · 487 L | +19.8wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7c2…73bfbacked Yes | 19c | 3,000$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570 | 117 | 31.6%37 W · 80 L | -6.7wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -21%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ba…e793backed No | 69c | 2,987$2,073 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$913.79 | 168 | 58.3%98 W · 70 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Yes | 14c | 2,685$387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386.73 | 2,520 | 39.8%1,002 W · 1,518 L | -21.2wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Yes | 23c | 1,983$456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$456.09 | 58 | 32.8%19 W · 39 L | -7.6wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 78c | 1,407$1,094 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.9 | 388 | 49.5%192 W · 196 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 78c | 1,336$1,039 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.83 | 396 | 49.7%197 W · 199 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9572…efffbacked No | 77c | 1,200$920 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.99 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 34cpaid | +76.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Yes | 31c | 871$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.44 | 219 | 53.9%118 W · 101 L | +8.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 12c | 796.92$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.54 | 968 | 46.1%446 W · 522 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4789…994abacked No | 80c | 625$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125 | 17 | 82.4%14 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 75cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02d4…d26cbacked Yes | 8c | 500$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 205 | 20%41 W · 164 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a85…4612backed Yes | 24c | 381$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.4 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf436…4591backed Yes | 15c | 309.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.34 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 23c | 298.61$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.68 | 1,464 | 35.6%521 W · 943 L | -33.5wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe432…934abacked Yes | 27c | 283$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.97 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed No | 78c | 279.89$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.57 | 762 | 39.2%299 W · 463 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Yes | 20c | 276$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.26 | 169 | 29%49 W · 120 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ca…2c01backed No | 75c | 266.67$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.67 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Yes | 31c | 258.93$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.22 | 62 | 48.4%30 W · 32 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d60…453dbacked No | 78c | 256.41$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.41 | 246 | 54.1%133 W · 113 L | -7.5wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Yes | 29c | 252.99$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.22 | 263 | 48.7%128 W · 135 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9930…696ebacked Yes | 23c | 205.48$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.26 | 84 | 40.5%34 W · 50 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabce…2f87backed No | 77c | 200$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 260 | 52.7%137 W · 123 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +13%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc423…03b9backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 34 | 0%0 W · 34 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3440…6748backed Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes | 29c | 187$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.51 | 1,035 | 41.6%431 W · 604 L | -33.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9db…6789backed Yes | 32c | 168.94$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.33 | 50 | 36%18 W · 32 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9079…b19bbacked Yes | 31c | 148.12$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.41 | 147 | 45.6%67 W · 80 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 20c | 125.23$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.46 | 1,766 | 50.2%887 W · 879 L | +31.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd75a…d264backed Yes | 33c | 118$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.94 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43ed…6232backed Yes | 32c | 113.78$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.97 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | -5.7wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -39%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed No | 79c | 111.44$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.88 | 357 | 51%182 W · 175 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3f…6712backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 149 | 49%73 W · 76 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked No | 79c | 96.22$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.47 | 144 | 40.3%58 W · 86 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05b2…953bbacked Yes | 30c | 92$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f56…348abacked Yes | 30c | 90.68$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.13 | 99 | 42.4%42 W · 57 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x68f8…12c8backed No | 78c | 88.46$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.46 | 29 | 79.3%23 W · 6 L | +4.0wins | +0.14per pick | 65cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x664a…fc5fbacked Yes | 38c | 84$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.7 | 242 | 47.9%116 W · 126 L | +9.7wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40e9…494fbacked Yes | 14c | 77.94$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Yes | 20c | 76.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 293 | 50.9%149 W · 144 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x489d…f6e3backed Yes | 20c | 69.35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 171 | 51.5%88 W · 83 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5eeb…01b2backed Yes | 15c | 68.15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 294 | 25.2%74 W · 220 L | -14.3wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Yes | 34c | 56.61$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 935 | 35.2%329 W · 606 L | -21.8wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -33%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Yes | 41c | 55.24$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.56 | 450 | 52.2%235 W · 215 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3654…1b78backed No | 79c | 53$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.13 | 182 | 61.5%112 W · 70 L | +9.0wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c3a…50aebacked No | 76c | 52.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.63 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfeef…4b1fbacked No | 79c | 52.2$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.96 | 109 | 60.6%66 W · 43 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25f5…0ea0backed No | 78c | 51.31$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.29 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc617…9ff2backed No | 78c | 51.28$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d93…fdefbacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 83 | 42.2%35 W · 48 L | -9.3wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -26%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfdbf…cd24backed No | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed No | 55c | 44.3$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.06 | 261 | 36.8%96 W · 165 L | -18.0wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7403…b24abacked No | 77c | 43.48$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ab…16d0backed Yes | 26c | 41.73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 118 | 61.9%73 W · 45 L | +12.0wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe906…db88backed No | 76c | 39.47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.47 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x862f…200bbacked No | 80c | 37.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 78cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d0…2fefbacked No | 68c | 35.97$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.51 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8084…abe8backed No | 80c | 27.5$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 78cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x833c…ac24backed No | 78c | 22.8$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.06 | 63 | 68.3%43 W · 20 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked No | 80c | 22$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 1,116 | 49.5%552 W · 564 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b3b…1f1bbacked No | 78c | 20.51$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ddd…73b2backed No | 79c | 18.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.76 | 92 | 65.2%60 W · 32 L | +6.7wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x713d…15d0backed No | 78c | 17.95$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.95 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Nagoya Grampus win on 2026-08-15?this page
- Will Kashima Antlers vs. Nagoya Grampus end in a draw?No won
- Will Kashima Antlers win on 2026-08-15?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.