MLB · resolved market
Cardinals vs. Nationals
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1614943280910ce993e54a1c9b4d894fac42bb5962ee4cd684eb2a266bb39443
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cardinalsof Cardinals, Nationals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $44,041
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $53,452
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,041 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Cardinals | 53c | 6,801$3,581 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,220 | 390 | 41%160 W · 230 L | -22.2wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Nationals | 45c | 5,941$2,672 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,671.77 | 1,591 | 50.3%801 W · 790 L | +68.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ed…16f3backed Nationals | 50c | 5,000$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x134a…9e42backed Nationals | 5c | 2,055$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.95 | 46 | 32.6%15 W · 31 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c4…5919backed Nationals | 3c | 1,462$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 1,180 | 7.2%85 W · 1,095 L | -13.6wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Cardinals | 56c | 1,157$646 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510.82 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…7448backed Nationals | 17c | 1,035$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 1,213 | 40.5%491 W · 722 L | -32.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…ddfabacked Nationals | 48c | 1,000$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480 | 374 | 46.8%175 W · 199 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Nationals | 6c | 953.87$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0df8…b67ebacked Cardinals | 51c | 857.52$439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$418.52 | 92 | 45.7%42 W · 50 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a0e…4dc6backed Nationals | 49c | 681.63$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa530…4280backed Nationals | 13c | 665.54$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.52 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Nationals | 34c | 658.71$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.59 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Nationals | 7c | 656.8$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.73 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ccf…2fedbacked Cardinals | 52c | 640.38$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.38 | 391 | 60.4%236 W · 155 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Cardinals | 51c | 608.71$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.27 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cc…73e6backed Nationals | 49c | 400$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196 | 145 | 39.3%57 W · 88 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x363d…fe75backed Nationals | 50c | 400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 212 | 42.5%90 W · 122 L | -13.7wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4103…9b9ebacked Cardinals | 51c | 390.38$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.38 | 308 | 42.9%132 W · 176 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b36…fd74backed Cardinals | 52c | 386.54$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.54 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x387c…a6dbbacked Nationals | 49c | 384$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8d…5232backed Nationals | 8c | 306$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.91 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb13d…2e90backed Nationals | 47c | 296.96$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.57 | 686 | 56.4%387 W · 299 L | +38.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ad…d11dbacked Cardinals | 50c | 250$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125 | 140 | 50.7%71 W · 69 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Cardinals | 50c | 247.72$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.86 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61fb…e089backed Nationals | 13c | 201.28$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.57 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 18cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd33b…4e00backed Nationals | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 98 | 54.1%53 W · 45 L | +8.4wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Cardinals | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a9e…f27abacked Cardinals | 51c | 199.99$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.99 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Nationals | 49c | 199.98$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.99 | 932 | 40.5%377 W · 555 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e42…9003backed Nationals | 45c | 198$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.12 | 432 | 50.7%219 W · 213 L | +10.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1999…fedbbacked Cardinals | 52c | 194.77$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.77 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc91a…c6b8backed Cardinals | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 107 | 46.7%50 W · 57 L | +4.4wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Cardinals | 52c | 192.26$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.26 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Cardinals | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e6f…0142backed Cardinals | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 125 | 49.6%62 W · 63 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed Nationals | 12c | 179.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.36 | 979 | 50.2%491 W · 488 L | +49.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Nationals | 6c | 173.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.26 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Cardinals | 50c | 170.32$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.16 | 416 | 43.8%182 W · 234 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd55c…34febacked Nationals | 48c | 159.45$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.53 | 376 | 49.5%186 W · 190 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc398…f446backed Nationals | 57c | 153.08$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.1 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.18per pick | 46cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x11d7…52e1backed Nationals | 50c | 143.76$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.88 | 809 | 55.5%449 W · 360 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b1e…65c1backed Nationals | 48c | 135.42$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 299 | 48.8%146 W · 153 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Cardinals | 75c | 111.99$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.51 | 639 | 42.7%273 W · 366 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85f1…a2f6backed Cardinals | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb20e…022bbacked Cardinals | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f36…4e9cbacked Cardinals | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 132 | 54.5%72 W · 60 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc614…b14bbacked Cardinals | 52c | 76.92$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.92 | 525 | 42.5%223 W · 302 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1803…772ebacked Cardinals | 52c | 76.92$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.92 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…4f2abacked Cardinals | 53c | 76.64$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.02 | 493 | 48.3%238 W · 255 L | +15.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb00d…09e2backed Cardinals | 51c | 73.51$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.02 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Cardinals | 51c | 58.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.56 | 382 | 45.5%174 W · 208 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72fe…e2cebacked Nationals | 48c | 55$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 519 | 55.3%287 W · 232 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5d…2f6fbacked Nationals | 50c | 54.11$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8fae…43e7backed Nationals | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef63…96cbbacked Nationals | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 467 | 53.7%251 W · 216 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60b9…5675backed Cardinals | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.08 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.29per pick | 55cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Cardinals | 53c | 47.17$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.17 | 944 | 55.3%522 W · 422 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc339…89a6backed Cardinals | 52c | 47.12$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Nationals | 49c | 47$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.03 | 1,466 | 44.1%647 W · 819 L | +44.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf03…1d5fbacked Nationals | 49c | 46.94$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef75…5d78backed Cardinals | 57c | 46.88$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.16 | 1,358 | 45.9%624 W · 734 L | +41.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0869…3e89backed Nationals | 49c | 44$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.56 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd59…d685backed Cardinals | 51c | 44$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3685…ccf4backed Cardinals | 51c | 43.63$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.38 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +45.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf391…73c3backed Nationals | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 295 | 52.2%154 W · 141 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7390…9fb2backed Cardinals | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda58…c92bbacked Nationals | 50c | 34.82$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.41 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcc1c…7245backed Nationals | 50c | 32.76$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b69…e32abacked Cardinals | 53c | 30.9$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.52 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 64cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Cardinals | 52c | 30.38$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.58 | 2,045 | 53.8%1,100 W · 945 L | +32.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9ff…3c46backed Nationals | 50c | 28.25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.13 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x928c…834cbacked Nationals | 50c | 27.3$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81e3…77a9backed Cardinals | 52c | 21.16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.16 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd32d…3c32backed Cardinals | 52c | 21.15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2bae…2e92backed Cardinals | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d1…5ba7backed Cardinals | 74c | 17.12$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.45 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.25per pick | 64cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.