F1 · resolved market
Verstappen vs. Norris
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x16d518606b94a35322d8dc851cc699d7d0e7b4408b9c7ae911a1934efc6de02d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Norris of Verstappen, Norris
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- F1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,146
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,323
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,146 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in F1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in F1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa599…4513backed Norris | 69c | 477.63$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.7 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45e8…cc6cbacked Norris | 75c | 386.66$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.66 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa31…3b4bbacked Verstappen | 32c | 312.5$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 54cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…0635backed Verstappen | 25c | 268.65$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.16 | 159 | 32.7%52 W · 107 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb6…8f5dbacked Verstappen | 30c | 217$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.1 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | -2.7wins | -0.11per pick | 23cpaid | -65.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Verstappen | 30c | 203.96$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.5 | 213 | 37.6%80 W · 133 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46a6…8c21backed Norris | 69c | 200$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Verstappen | 29c | 128.64$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.31 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.7wins | +0.20per pick | 45cpaid | +53.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6c43…fb9bbacked Norris | 71c | 100.07$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.02 | 112 | 50%56 W · 56 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8307…1cadbacked Norris | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +35%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89c6…7961backed Verstappen | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 34 | 20.6%7 W · 27 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f70…6215backed Verstappen | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb410…7736backed Norris | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 20 | 80%16 W · 4 L | +3.9wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +49%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ec…f035backed Verstappen | 29c | 67.03$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…da90backed Norris | 60c | 65$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.05 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e37…03d2backed Norris | 71c | 64.58$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.73 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | +7.0wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x34b0…9017backed Verstappen | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 19cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x972c…819dbacked Norris | 76c | 39.26$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.26 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…65fdbacked Norris | 65c | 29.86$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.45 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8a2…973cbacked Norris | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in F1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Verstappen vs. Norris this page
- Albon vs. SainzSainz won
- Alonso vs. StrollAlonso won
- Hamilton vs. LeclercLeclerc won
- Hamilton vs. RussellRussell won
- Leclerc vs. RussellLeclerc won
- Leclerc vs. VerstappenLeclerc won
- Piastri vs. Norris Piastri won
- Verstappen vs. PiastriPiastri won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.