F1 · resolved market
Hamilton vs. Leclerc
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf213af288d3caf1d09d5a9ea63cc89527f620f673f50b81954ca7debec23c467
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Leclercof Hamilton, Leclerc
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- F1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $223,146
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $222,964
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $223,146 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in F1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in F1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2465…2f73backed Hamilton | 31c | 55,455$17,191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,191.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15ae…8f1abacked Leclerc | 69c | 55,455$38,264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,191.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7202…92f4backed Leclerc | 68c | 53,375$36,295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,080 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42ff…8477backed Hamilton | 32c | 53,375$17,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,080 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Leclerc | 47c | 1,736$818 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$917.36 | 213 | 37.6%80 W · 133 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f88…ca51backed Hamilton | 53c | 913$483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$483.15 | 80 | 27.5%22 W · 58 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -12%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e17…2e74backed Hamilton | 53c | 754.72$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1da…e76cbacked Leclerc | 54c | 487.85$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.19 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +70.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06a9…1a49backed Hamilton | 51c | 391.59$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 83 | 38.6%32 W · 51 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb6…8f5dbacked Hamilton | 8c | 355.62$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.35 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | -2.7wins | -0.11per pick | 23cpaid | -65.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…0635backed Leclerc | 46c | 323.71$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.19 | 159 | 32.7%52 W · 107 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc922…2618backed Hamilton | 47c | 284.21$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.58 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.29per pick | 58cpaid | +51.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf442…ccf8backed Hamilton | 53c | 206.51$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.45 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.20per pick | 43cpaid | +56.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Hamilton | 26c | 200$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 126 | 16.7%21 W · 105 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -52%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b29…5a9abacked Hamilton | 54c | 200$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 118 | 60.2%71 W · 47 L | +9.9wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Hamilton | 48c | 200$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 208 | 43.3%90 W · 118 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xced9…e7bebacked Leclerc | 53c | 190.09$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.09 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33c9…858bbacked Hamilton | 59c | 170.07$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x616f…6012backed Hamilton | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | -3.6wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1781…a0ecbacked Leclerc | 52c | 158$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.51 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2130…b64dbacked Hamilton | 45c | 150$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -25%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cfd…a1dbbacked Leclerc | 68c | 147.21$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.21 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.24per pick | 35cpaid | -83.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd986…1320backed Hamilton | 32c | 138.66$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.36 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2515…a008backed Hamilton | 53c | 113.21$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb410…7736backed Leclerc | 41c | 100$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 20 | 80%16 W · 4 L | +3.9wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +49%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6c43…fb9bbacked Leclerc | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 112 | 50%56 W · 56 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46a6…8c21backed Leclerc | 45c | 99.82$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.9 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x608e…38d5backed Leclerc | 53c | 94.81$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ded…9025backed Hamilton | 49c | 70$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.1 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecb1…5da3backed Leclerc | 80c | 68.84$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.77 | 89 | 39.3%35 W · 54 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked Leclerc | 66c | 64.71$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 100 | 51%51 W · 49 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe06…d5d5backed Leclerc | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed Leclerc | 68c | 46.87$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd0b…41febacked Hamilton | 35c | 42.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0f…05fdbacked Leclerc | 53c | 39.42$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.53 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +65.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffc5…3b2fbacked Leclerc | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70bb…14c2backed Leclerc | 54c | 20.37$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.37 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -25%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed65…b1b2backed Leclerc | 72c | 18.06$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.06 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in F1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Hamilton vs. Leclercthis page
- Albon vs. SainzSainz won
- Alonso vs. StrollAlonso won
- Hamilton vs. RussellRussell won
- Leclerc vs. RussellLeclerc won
- Leclerc vs. VerstappenLeclerc won
- Piastri vs. Norris Piastri won
- Verstappen vs. Norris Norris won
- Verstappen vs. PiastriPiastri won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.