F1 · resolved market
Leclerc vs. Verstappen
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfb01500e3016cb24a56f3680612a059fc023c2344550c30cc454c52174f2d255
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Leclercof Leclerc, Verstappen
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- F1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,313
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,624
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,313 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in F1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in F1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Leclerc | 20c | 2,507$501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,005.38 | 213 | 37.6%80 W · 133 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c9…2c23backed Verstappen | 80c | 1,500$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdae3…8adabacked Verstappen | 80c | 1,253$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…0635backed Leclerc | 22c | 593.33$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$462.3 | 159 | 32.7%52 W · 107 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9304…f693backed Leclerc | 21c | 485.63$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$381.75 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +2.5wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +52.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xecb1…5da3backed Verstappen | 50c | 316$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158 | 89 | 39.3%35 W · 54 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffc5…3b2fbacked Verstappen | 74c | 216.32$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1781…a0ecbacked Leclerc | 25c | 216$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.24 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46a6…8c21backed Verstappen | 76c | 202$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.52 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ca…198bbacked Leclerc | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d4…84a1backed Verstappen | 80c | 200$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8338…8be1backed Verstappen | 77c | 196.03$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c43…fb9bbacked Leclerc | 24c | 180.66$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.72 | 112 | 50%56 W · 56 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a4f…8de3backed Verstappen | 78c | 152.77$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.39 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fb3…05e5backed Leclerc | 24c | 110$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.88 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.26per pick | 36cpaid | +103.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb410…7736backed Leclerc | 27c | 100$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73 | 20 | 80%16 W · 4 L | +3.9wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +49%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd5dd…7564backed Leclerc | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -60%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf028…2709backed Verstappen | 78c | 99.98$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.02 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Verstappen | 74c | 96$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.04 | 208 | 43.3%90 W · 118 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b29…5a9abacked Verstappen | 75c | 91.46$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.6 | 118 | 60.2%71 W · 47 L | +9.9wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf5c5…192cbacked Verstappen | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a86…80efbacked Verstappen | 80c | 43.75$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.18per pick | 56cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c57…eb35backed Verstappen | 75c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09cd…8be5backed Verstappen | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa8a…d01dbacked Leclerc | 35c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ded…9025backed Verstappen | 77c | 28$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.56 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedfb…ebafbacked Leclerc | 39c | 27.74$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffb…a834backed Leclerc | 55c | 22.23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.02 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +4.2wins | +0.33per pick | 44cpaid | +86.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b8…8be5backed Verstappen | 79c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 74cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35a6…cb8fbacked Verstappen | 65c | 19.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in F1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Leclerc vs. Verstappenthis page
- Albon vs. SainzSainz won
- Alonso vs. StrollAlonso won
- Hamilton vs. LeclercLeclerc won
- Hamilton vs. RussellRussell won
- Leclerc vs. RussellLeclerc won
- Piastri vs. Norris Piastri won
- Verstappen vs. Norris Norris won
- Verstappen vs. PiastriPiastri won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.