F1 · resolved market
Piastri vs. Norris
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8ec5d92933f23776d96eb034cbdb313e9860fbc08db017501bbe35869da63f72
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Piastriof Piastri, Norris
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- F1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $174,344
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $174,247
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $174,344 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in F1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in F1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xade3…c17dbacked Piastri | 63c | 59,071$37,215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21,856.27 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 67cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x279c…53cfbacked Norris | 37c | 59,071$21,856 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21,856.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e9b…49b7backed Norris | 52c | 26,762$13,916 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,916.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a35…9feabacked Piastri | 48c | 26,762$12,846 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,916.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd986…1320backed Norris | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe411…04c5backed Piastri | 51c | 732.73$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362.37 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ad…d11dbacked Norris | 49c | 400$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196 | 51 | 37.3%19 W · 32 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…0635backed Piastri | 51c | 382.48$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.99 | 159 | 32.7%52 W · 107 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89c6…7961backed Norris | 36c | 343.32$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.66 | 34 | 20.6%7 W · 27 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Norris | 35c | 333.85$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.85 | 213 | 37.6%80 W · 133 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa31…3b4bbacked Piastri | 65c | 307.69$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.69 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 54cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6eb1…b027backed Piastri | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb6…8f5dbacked Norris | 7c | 150$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | -2.7wins | -0.11per pick | 23cpaid | -65.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb37…ff74backed Norris | 51c | 110$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.1 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06a9…3b80backed Piastri | 49c | 110$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.1 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 39cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41f0…3eebbacked Piastri | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c43…fb9bbacked Piastri | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.1 | 112 | 50%56 W · 56 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06a9…1a49backed Norris | 53c | 38.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 83 | 38.6%32 W · 51 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1781…a0ecbacked Norris | 36c | 32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc835…65dabacked Norris | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…b218backed Norris | 53c | 19.51$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc922…2618backed Piastri | 63c | 18.92$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.29per pick | 58cpaid | +51.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in F1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Piastri vs. Norris this page
- Albon vs. SainzSainz won
- Alonso vs. StrollAlonso won
- Hamilton vs. LeclercLeclerc won
- Hamilton vs. RussellRussell won
- Leclerc vs. RussellLeclerc won
- Leclerc vs. VerstappenLeclerc won
- Verstappen vs. Norris Norris won
- Verstappen vs. PiastriPiastri won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.