F1 · resolved market
Hamilton vs. Russell
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7e22492732a32332d5a230521db58e114026f436bc15a038c2a04b859fa5a406
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Russell of Hamilton, Russell
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- F1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,924
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,784
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,924 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in F1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in F1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x975b…149bbacked Hamilton | 45c | 1,024$461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$461.5 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +41%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ee6…6887backed Russell | 55c | 1,000$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b94…2129backed Russell | 58c | 930$539 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Hamilton | 43c | 775.78$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.58 | 213 | 37.6%80 W · 133 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89b7…9c41backed Hamilton | 42c | 775$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5529…77b2backed Hamilton | 42c | 665$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda6f…cb9cbacked Russell | 58c | 435$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52a3…0b73backed Russell | 58c | 325$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9afd…5408backed Hamilton | 42c | 260$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa31…3b4bbacked Russell | 56c | 258.98$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.83 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 54cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc1da…e76cbacked Russell | 65c | 248.71$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.15 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +70.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Russell | 53c | 230$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.1 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.7wins | +0.20per pick | 45cpaid | +53.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6c56…7a5fbacked Russell | 58c | 230$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb6…8f5dbacked Hamilton | 44c | 229.92$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.17 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | -2.7wins | -0.11per pick | 23cpaid | -65.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x89c6…7961backed Russell | 69c | 228.25$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.76 | 34 | 20.6%7 W · 27 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…0635backed Hamilton | 34c | 227.16$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.25 | 159 | 32.7%52 W · 107 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06cb…3e31backed Hamilton | 42c | 225$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f1…bd6abacked Russell | 57c | 219.3$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.3 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec01…6592backed Russell | 57c | 200$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46a6…8c21backed Russell | 55c | 199.98$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.99 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x426e…5922backed Hamilton | 47c | 145$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2e…2358backed Russell | 30c | 142.86$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +4.4wins | +0.24per pick | 48cpaid | +53.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x616f…6012backed Hamilton | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | -3.6wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaeed…074bbacked Hamilton | 45c | 138.86$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.49 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x06a9…1a49backed Hamilton | 46c | 130.66$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 83 | 38.6%32 W · 51 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b0d…1744backed Hamilton | 47c | 104.01$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.88 | 84 | 27.4%23 W · 61 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +91.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed Russell | 57c | 88$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.84 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9861…da54backed Russell | 58c | 70$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x360a…4f30backed Hamilton | 42c | 65$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a86…80efbacked Russell | 56c | 62.5$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.18per pick | 56cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffc5…3b2fbacked Russell | 65c | 62$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…d526backed Hamilton | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d75…41dcbacked Russell | 57c | 53.75$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.11 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +57.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c06…62e3backed Hamilton | 31c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c43…fb9bbacked Russell | 55c | 42.74$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.23 | 112 | 50%56 W · 56 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…65fdbacked Hamilton | 45c | 34.65$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.59 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f2…825bbacked Russell | 61c | 32.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Hamilton | 42c | 32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 123 | 25.2%31 W · 92 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35a6…cb8fbacked Hamilton | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c57…eb35backed Russell | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in F1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Hamilton vs. Russellthis page
- Albon vs. SainzSainz won
- Alonso vs. StrollAlonso won
- Hamilton vs. LeclercLeclerc won
- Leclerc vs. RussellLeclerc won
- Leclerc vs. VerstappenLeclerc won
- Piastri vs. Norris Piastri won
- Verstappen vs. Norris Norris won
- Verstappen vs. PiastriPiastri won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.