UFC · resolved market
Godinez vs. Polastri
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x16efc886338c14db6a29eb4084ed1006abb72f4521a687a84acf4bdd793859fd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Godinez of Godinez , Polastri
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,111
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,773
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,111 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe505…d18bbacked Godinez | 69c | 5,041$3,468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,572.71 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9267…0f9abacked Polastri | 33c | 3,531$1,165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,164.98 | 160 | 49.4%79 W · 81 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Polastri | 31c | 3,105$973 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$972.55 | 162 | 47.5%77 W · 85 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Polastri | 31c | 2,630$819 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$819.08 | 420 | 42.6%179 W · 241 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Polastri | 33c | 2,050$677 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$676.5 | 358 | 26%93 W · 265 L | -7.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d7…25e9backed Godinez | 67c | 1,914$1,282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$631.55 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 59cpaid | -34%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x70f8…d0d5backed Godinez | 68c | 1,618$1,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$517.65 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3cf…a5d4backed Godinez | 69c | 1,376$947 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$428.93 | 58 | 70.7%41 W · 17 L | +6.8wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb5d2…317bbacked Polastri | 32c | 1,140$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360.8 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe842…27d6backed Polastri | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 101 | 2%2 W · 99 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -76.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Godinez | 68c | 895.9$608 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.09 | 180 | 38.9%70 W · 110 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Godinez | 69c | 880.48$603 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.21 | 355 | 39.4%140 W · 215 L | -19.1wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4889…e2d8backed Godinez | 70c | 714.29$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.29 | 357 | 64.7%231 W · 126 L | +9.8wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Polastri | 31c | 674.54$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.25 | 147 | 51%75 W · 72 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa53a…e4f1backed Godinez | 69c | 600$416 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.25 | 121 | 59.5%72 W · 49 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ccf…2fedbacked Godinez | 68c | 489.71$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.71 | 64 | 62.5%40 W · 24 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb34d…ef8bbacked Polastri | 35c | 485$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.75 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +38%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Godinez | 65c | 462$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.7 | 332 | 53.3%177 W · 155 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Godinez | 67c | 350$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.5 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe545…a68cbacked Polastri | 34c | 294.12$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 141 | 30.5%43 W · 98 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafba…e61bbacked Polastri | 32c | 294.12$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.12 | 352 | 53.1%187 W · 165 L | +27.7wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc8…4c1dbacked Godinez | 68c | 294.12$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.12 | 210 | 44.8%94 W · 116 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Godinez | 68c | 200$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 399 | 59.6%238 W · 161 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf35f…c62abacked Polastri | 33c | 200$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c87…70d5backed Polastri | 35c | 185.71$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Polastri | 31c | 172$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.26 | 143 | 55.9%80 W · 63 L | +7.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a2…6a88backed Godinez | 69c | 172$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.32 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ea…810abacked Polastri | 31c | 156$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.36 | 62 | 45.2%28 W · 34 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab43…f7b3backed Polastri | 31c | 140.3$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 160 | 58.8%94 W · 66 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3989…27b1backed Polastri | 35c | 120$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 130 | 41.5%54 W · 76 L | -9.1wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0682…4250backed Polastri | 27c | 109.35$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4574…ab3ebacked Godinez | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 287 | 43.9%126 W · 161 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad8c…8cc3backed Polastri | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 93 | 52.7%49 W · 44 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1102…af36backed Polastri | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 487 | 49.1%239 W · 248 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcfd…c051backed Godinez | 70c | 71.43$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.43 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaca6…6b28backed Polastri | 19c | 70$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0af8…9454backed Polastri | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 99 | 50.5%50 W · 49 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60ff…5ec3backed Godinez | 69c | 43.48$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.48 | 100 | 40%40 W · 60 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Godinez | 69c | 36.23$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.23 | 564 | 50.5%285 W · 279 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Polastri | 31c | 36.23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.23 | 210 | 31.9%67 W · 143 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Godinez vs. Polastrithis page
- Cháirez vs. VergaraCháirez won
- Emmers vs. MirandaEmmers won
- García vs. PichelGarcía won
- Martínez vs. OliveiraMartínez won
- Mederos vs. HubbardMederos won
- Medina vs. GautierGautier won
- Moreno vs. ErcegMoreno won
- Rodriguez vs. CostaCosta won
- Rodríguez vs. BorjasBorjas won
- Rosas Jr. vs. MoralesRosas Jr. won
- Torres vs. DoberTorres won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.