UFC · resolved market
Emmers vs. Miranda
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7f14b9b5b2c4c95b11693fa7ed811d78fbc9ea58344dbd44692712534c1e6349
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Emmers of Emmers , Miranda
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,559
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,307
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,559 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x024a…decbbacked Miranda | 19c | 12,164$2,301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,301.18 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +4.2wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xafba…e61bbacked Miranda | 18c | 6,000$1,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,080 | 352 | 53.1%187 W · 165 L | +27.7wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Miranda | 20c | 3,610$706 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$705.9 | 358 | 26%93 W · 265 L | -7.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Miranda | 17c | 3,000$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510 | 420 | 42.6%179 W · 241 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdebb…eedbbacked Miranda | 17c | 1,914$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.37 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc3b…b99abacked Miranda | 18c | 1,005$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.98 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe842…27d6backed Miranda | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 101 | 2%2 W · 99 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -76.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Miranda | 20c | 700$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.9 | 399 | 59.6%238 W · 161 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c87…70d5backed Miranda | 20c | 145.8$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.16 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd6…f5f4backed Emmers | 61c | 105$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.75 | 539 | 56.6%305 W · 234 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x095f…41b7backed Miranda | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2467…c702backed Miranda | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 100 | 45%45 W · 55 L | +6.1wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0682…4250backed Miranda | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Emmers vs. Mirandathis page
- Cháirez vs. VergaraCháirez won
- García vs. PichelGarcía won
- Godinez vs. PolastriGodinez won
- Martínez vs. OliveiraMartínez won
- Mederos vs. HubbardMederos won
- Medina vs. GautierGautier won
- Moreno vs. ErcegMoreno won
- Rodriguez vs. CostaCosta won
- Rodríguez vs. BorjasBorjas won
- Rosas Jr. vs. MoralesRosas Jr. won
- Torres vs. DoberTorres won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.