UFC · resolved market
Cháirez vs. Vergara
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6acf5df7175c2dbc4a3cd45b5ea21382d9bc37fb6eefdf9bb6932ac8e08fc138
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cháirezof Cháirez, Vergara
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $52,401
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $64,676
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,401 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe32e…890bbacked Vergara | 29c | 15,612$4,603 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,602.61 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9267…0f9abacked Cháirez | 71c | 8,457$6,004 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,452.5 | 160 | 49.4%79 W · 81 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12af…ff78backed Cháirez | 70c | 8,391$5,864 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,527.31 | 105 | 42.9%45 W · 60 L | -8.1wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe842…27d6backed Vergara | 1c | 6,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 101 | 2%2 W · 99 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -76.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Vergara | 31c | 5,020$1,556 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,556.35 | 358 | 26%93 W · 265 L | -7.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafba…e61bbacked Vergara | 30c | 3,253$966 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$965.87 | 352 | 53.1%187 W · 165 L | +27.7wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad25…7678backed Cháirez | 70c | 1,905$1,327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$578.2 | 118 | 44.1%52 W · 66 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked Cháirez | 71c | 1,491$1,054 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$437.3 | 115 | 40%46 W · 69 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Cháirez | 70c | 1,417$996 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420.77 | 180 | 38.9%70 W · 110 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Cháirez | 72c | 1,400$1,008 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392 | 399 | 59.6%238 W · 161 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked Cháirez | 70c | 1,376$963 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$412.8 | 185 | 60%111 W · 74 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ac…08d5backed Cháirez | 74c | 1,157$856 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.8 | 62 | 48.4%30 W · 32 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb5d2…317bbacked Vergara | 28c | 1,070$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.6 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ccf…2fedbacked Cháirez | 72c | 770.83$555 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.83 | 64 | 62.5%40 W · 24 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7dd…1e23backed Vergara | 30c | 666.67$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 105 | 29.5%31 W · 74 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x879b…9cb2backed Vergara | 31c | 500$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4889…e2d8backed Cháirez | 73c | 438.36$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.36 | 356 | 64.6%230 W · 126 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Cháirez | 69c | 435$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.85 | 332 | 53.3%177 W · 155 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7455…93adbacked Vergara | 29c | 433$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.57 | 195 | 31.8%62 W · 133 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4132…a5a5backed Cháirez | 71c | 375.87$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf587…1419backed Vergara | 30c | 333.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 46cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe545…a68cbacked Vergara | 31c | 327.42$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 141 | 30.5%43 W · 98 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Cháirez | 69c | 319.39$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.92 | 420 | 42.6%179 W · 241 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc822…c185backed Vergara | 27c | 300$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Cháirez | 69c | 299.98$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.99 | 221 | 44.3%98 W · 123 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Cháirez | 72c | 296.38$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.99 | 248 | 62.5%155 W · 93 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Vergara | 14c | 286.95$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccb9…6c31backed Cháirez | 70c | 285.71$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.71 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.18per pick | 64cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc8…4c1dbacked Cháirez | 71c | 281.69$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.69 | 210 | 44.8%94 W · 116 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf35f…c62abacked Cháirez | 70c | 249$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.7 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Vergara | 26c | 228$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.28 | 147 | 51%75 W · 72 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c86…6993backed Cháirez | 73c | 200$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 235 | 37%87 W · 148 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ea…810abacked Vergara | 25c | 192$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 62 | 45.2%28 W · 34 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe85d…15eabacked Cháirez | 69c | 144.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1102…af36backed Cháirez | 69c | 140$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.4 | 487 | 49.1%239 W · 248 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef41…5080backed Cháirez | 74c | 129.85$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.25 | 11 | 90.9%10 W · 1 L | +2.5wins | +0.23per pick | 68cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad8c…8cc3backed Cháirez | 73c | 125$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.75 | 93 | 52.7%49 W · 44 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x095f…41b7backed Cháirez | 70c | 123.62$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.09 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd79…f93ebacked Cháirez | 72c | 110$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.9 | 522 | 52.9%276 W · 246 L | +15.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0682…4250backed Vergara | 31c | 106.45$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2467…c702backed Cháirez | 70c | 103.51$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.05 | 100 | 45%45 W · 55 L | +6.1wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Cháirez | 70c | 101.97$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.59 | 564 | 50.5%285 W · 279 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Cháirez | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 210 | 31.9%67 W · 143 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f1…bd6abacked Vergara | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac53…b74fbacked Cháirez | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24d2…92c5backed Vergara | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4574…ab3ebacked Vergara | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 287 | 43.9%126 W · 161 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed Cháirez | 70c | 81.66$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.75 | 339 | 48.1%163 W · 176 L | -16.2wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed Cháirez | 75c | 70$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 325 | 45.2%147 W · 178 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked Vergara | 26c | 70$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.54 | 104 | 39.4%41 W · 63 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…16bebacked Vergara | 30c | 67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +50.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea81…30b5backed Vergara | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 283 | 33.2%94 W · 189 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb4c…2f6bbacked Cháirez | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +13%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08f4…7700backed Vergara | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Vergara | 26c | 47.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 143 | 55.9%80 W · 63 L | +7.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x96a9…e087backed Vergara | 32c | 46.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafb7…75f4backed Cháirez | 70c | 32.86$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.86 | 76 | 55.3%42 W · 34 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2df5…6c5ebacked Vergara | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cháirez vs. Vergarathis page
- Emmers vs. MirandaEmmers won
- García vs. PichelGarcía won
- Godinez vs. PolastriGodinez won
- Martínez vs. OliveiraMartínez won
- Mederos vs. HubbardMederos won
- Medina vs. GautierGautier won
- Moreno vs. ErcegMoreno won
- Rodriguez vs. CostaCosta won
- Rodríguez vs. BorjasBorjas won
- Rosas Jr. vs. MoralesRosas Jr. won
- Torres vs. DoberTorres won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.