UFC · resolved market
García vs. Pichel
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6fc0f747a1e21a9889854c7391120df7a1a809a6eb5027310ea25485ef35c4d3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- García of García , Pichel
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,805
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,249
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,805 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x01ba…b77abacked García | 78c | 4,703$3,651 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,051.69 | 222 | 59.5%132 W · 90 L | +15.1wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9137…5ebfbacked García | 78c | 3,107$2,428 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$678.53 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Pichel | 23c | 3,050$692 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$691.5 | 358 | 26%93 W · 265 L | -7.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9267…0f9abacked Pichel | 22c | 2,091$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460.02 | 160 | 49.4%79 W · 81 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5d2…317bbacked Pichel | 22c | 2,032$439 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$438.76 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d7…25e9backed García | 77c | 1,626$1,252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$373.98 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 59cpaid | -34%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x024a…decbbacked Pichel | 23c | 1,311$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.38 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +4.2wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Pichel | 22c | 1,111$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.98 | 147 | 51%75 W · 72 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe842…27d6backed Pichel | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 101 | 2%2 W · 99 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -76.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked García | 78c | 976$765 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.5 | 180 | 38.9%70 W · 110 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3cf…a5d4backed García | 79c | 947.61$746 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.31 | 58 | 70.7%41 W · 17 L | +6.8wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd6…f5f4backed García | 78c | 850$660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.15 | 539 | 56.6%305 W · 234 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe505…d18bbacked Pichel | 22c | 824$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.28 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9fe…366bbacked Pichel | 23c | 736$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.64 | 171 | 58.5%100 W · 71 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0434…a98cbacked García | 76c | 610$463 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.84 | 264 | 51.9%137 W · 127 L | +23.0wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcc3b…b99abacked García | 79c | 607.56$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.62 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa53a…e4f1backed García | 79c | 600$472 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128 | 121 | 59.5%72 W · 49 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked García | 77c | 600$465 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135 | 221 | 44.3%98 W · 123 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed García | 77c | 500$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115 | 420 | 42.6%179 W · 241 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb34d…ef8bbacked García | 78c | 500$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +38%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe545…a68cbacked Pichel | 22c | 454.55$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 141 | 30.5%43 W · 98 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Pichel | 12c | 449.89$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.3 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad25…7678backed Pichel | 20c | 408.25$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.65 | 118 | 44.1%52 W · 66 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa7dd…1e23backed Pichel | 25c | 407.35$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 105 | 29.5%31 W · 74 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Pichel | 25c | 261$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.92 | 162 | 47.5%77 W · 85 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…fc02backed Pichel | 20c | 222.39$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.48 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x239a…a0c6backed Pichel | 9c | 210$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf35f…c62abacked Pichel | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ea…810abacked Pichel | 20c | 171$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.2 | 62 | 45.2%28 W · 34 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Pichel | 22c | 163.43$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.88 | 143 | 55.9%80 W · 63 L | +7.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x975b…2d5fbacked Pichel | 11c | 157.66$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.34 | 141 | 29.8%42 W · 99 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -27%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0682…4250backed Pichel | 18c | 140$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Pichel | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc0a…4fe1backed García | 80c | 97$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.4 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x72fe…e2cebacked García | 78c | 94$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.68 | 90 | 62.2%56 W · 34 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed García | 75c | 80$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 399 | 59.6%238 W · 161 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf41c…c9b3backed Pichel | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 97 | 37.1%36 W · 61 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a2…6a88backed García | 78c | 76$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.72 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked Pichel | 22c | 76$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.69 | 104 | 39.4%41 W · 63 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed García | 71c | 70.2$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.46 | 564 | 50.5%285 W · 279 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c87…70d5backed Pichel | 24c | 66.13$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.87 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed Pichel | 22c | 64$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 80 | 60%48 W · 32 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafba…e61bbacked García | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 352 | 53.1%187 W · 165 L | +27.7wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0af8…9454backed Pichel | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 99 | 50.5%50 W · 49 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9edc…b088backed García | 79c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.83 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…818dbacked García | 79c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.94 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- García vs. Pichelthis page
- Cháirez vs. VergaraCháirez won
- Emmers vs. MirandaEmmers won
- Godinez vs. PolastriGodinez won
- Martínez vs. OliveiraMartínez won
- Mederos vs. HubbardMederos won
- Medina vs. GautierGautier won
- Moreno vs. ErcegMoreno won
- Rodriguez vs. CostaCosta won
- Rodríguez vs. BorjasBorjas won
- Rosas Jr. vs. MoralesRosas Jr. won
- Torres vs. DoberTorres won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.