UFC · resolved market
Mederos vs. Hubbard
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x36018f12a904e718464432e8e6c5b1a09a2ca6899310b06f21acd3509fd63918
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Mederosof Mederos, Hubbard
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,396
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,394
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,396 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x975b…2d5fbacked Hubbard | 1c | 4,950$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 141 | 29.8%42 W · 99 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -27%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12af…ff78backed Hubbard | 43c | 3,333$1,433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,433.19 | 105 | 42.9%45 W · 60 L | -8.1wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x01ba…b77abacked Hubbard | 42c | 3,000$1,260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,259.99 | 222 | 59.5%132 W · 90 L | +15.1wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Mederos | 57c | 2,013$1,147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$865.84 | 420 | 42.6%179 W · 241 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1c…4bccbacked Mederos | 57c | 1,640$938 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$702.22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe842…27d6backed Hubbard | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 101 | 2%2 W · 99 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -76.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3cf…a5d4backed Mederos | 58c | 747.05$435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.27 | 58 | 70.7%41 W · 17 L | +6.8wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked Mederos | 58c | 599$347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.58 | 185 | 60%111 W · 74 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc8…4c1dbacked Mederos | 58c | 516.5$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.5 | 210 | 44.8%94 W · 116 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf35f…c62abacked Mederos | 58c | 400$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd79…f93ebacked Mederos | 29c | 362.78$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.02 | 522 | 52.9%276 W · 246 L | +15.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed Mederos | 16c | 350$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.9 | 45 | 33.3%15 W · 30 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Mederos | 58c | 314.22$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.04 | 180 | 38.9%70 W · 110 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd6…f5f4backed Hubbard | 69c | 215.37$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.02 | 540 | 56.7%306 W · 234 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafba…e61bbacked Hubbard | 41c | 160.05$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.45 | 352 | 53.1%187 W · 165 L | +27.7wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcc3b…b99abacked Hubbard | 77c | 156.9$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.81 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0434…a98cbacked Mederos | 56c | 142.94$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.42 | 265 | 52.1%138 W · 127 L | +23.9wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9789…21d1backed Mederos | 59c | 131.2$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.79 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1102…af36backed Hubbard | 31c | 115$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.2 | 487 | 49.1%239 W · 248 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Mederos | 58c | 103.45$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.45 | 564 | 50.5%285 W · 279 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f1…bd6abacked Mederos | 59c | 101.69$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.69 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4574…ab3ebacked Hubbard | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 287 | 43.9%126 W · 161 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x095f…41b7backed Mederos | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad8c…8cc3backed Mederos | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 93 | 52.7%49 W · 44 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x239a…a0c6backed Hubbard | 60c | 71.28$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.49 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Mederos | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.9 | 54 | 33.3%18 W · 36 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0682…4250backed Mederos | 40c | 47.24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.24 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0af8…9454backed Mederos | 58c | 43.1$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.1 | 99 | 50.5%50 W · 49 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Mederos vs. Hubbardthis page
- Cháirez vs. VergaraCháirez won
- Emmers vs. MirandaEmmers won
- García vs. PichelGarcía won
- Godinez vs. PolastriGodinez won
- Martínez vs. OliveiraMartínez won
- Medina vs. GautierGautier won
- Moreno vs. ErcegMoreno won
- Rodriguez vs. CostaCosta won
- Rodríguez vs. BorjasBorjas won
- Rosas Jr. vs. MoralesRosas Jr. won
- Torres vs. DoberTorres won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.