UFC · resolved market
Medina vs. Gautier
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8a24b278d569cdfc5d7355648b9cbe37cc98d0ddb45b99a3cf2426b16bab3d2a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Gautierof Medina, Gautier
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,547
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,060
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,547 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Medina | 22c | 7,146$1,542 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,541.5 | 358 | 26%93 W · 265 L | -7.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Gautier | 77c | 1,742$1,341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400.63 | 332 | 53.3%177 W · 155 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Gautier | 79c | 1,466$1,158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.77 | 420 | 42.6%179 W · 241 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Medina | 16c | 1,320$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.18 | 147 | 51%75 W · 72 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d7…25e9backed Gautier | 77c | 1,135$869 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.69 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 59cpaid | -34%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Medina | 11c | 1,028$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.49 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe842…27d6backed Medina | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 101 | 2%2 W · 99 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -76.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad25…7678backed Medina | 20c | 787.93$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.59 | 118 | 44.1%52 W · 66 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5d2…317bbacked Gautier | 79c | 755$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.8 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Medina | 23c | 689.97$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.59 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Gautier | 80c | 633$506 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.6 | 180 | 38.9%70 W · 110 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe545…a68cbacked Medina | 23c | 433.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 141 | 30.5%43 W · 98 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3989…27b1backed Medina | 21c | 200$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 130 | 41.5%54 W · 76 L | -9.1wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa53a…e4f1backed Gautier | 80c | 200$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 121 | 59.5%72 W · 49 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ea…810abacked Medina | 15c | 180.83$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.13 | 62 | 45.2%28 W · 34 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Medina | 16c | 120$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 143 | 55.9%80 W · 63 L | +7.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf41c…c9b3backed Medina | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 97 | 37.1%36 W · 61 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Gautier | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 367 | 45.8%168 W · 199 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8a3…cd82backed Gautier | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb4c…2f6bbacked Medina | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +13%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60ff…5ec3backed Medina | 19c | 78.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 100 | 40%40 W · 60 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0682…4250backed Medina | 18c | 66.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaca6…6b28backed Medina | 21c | 63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Gautier | 77c | 57.95$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 221 | 44.3%98 W · 123 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd614…1fa3backed Medina | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 377 | 54.6%206 W · 171 L | +19.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…fc02backed Gautier | 76c | 33.33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef41…5080backed Gautier | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 11 | 90.9%10 W · 1 L | +2.5wins | +0.23per pick | 68cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Medina vs. Gautierthis page
- Cháirez vs. VergaraCháirez won
- Emmers vs. MirandaEmmers won
- García vs. PichelGarcía won
- Godinez vs. PolastriGodinez won
- Martínez vs. OliveiraMartínez won
- Mederos vs. HubbardMederos won
- Moreno vs. ErcegMoreno won
- Rodriguez vs. CostaCosta won
- Rodríguez vs. BorjasBorjas won
- Rosas Jr. vs. MoralesRosas Jr. won
- Torres vs. DoberTorres won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.