UFC · resolved market
Martínez vs. Oliveira
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeb16a0d177dac12a96fe6a025e44214e07b1009d9b4b21315912af662f60a0c7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Martínez of Martínez , Oliveira
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,869
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $49,883
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,869 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Oliveira | 18c | 11,325$2,043 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,043.24 | 358 | 26%93 W · 265 L | -7.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5d2…317bbacked Oliveira | 10c | 3,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Oliveira | 15c | 2,891$429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$428.89 | 420 | 42.6%179 W · 241 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafba…e61bbacked Oliveira | 15c | 2,868$431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$431.21 | 352 | 53.1%187 W · 165 L | +27.7wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad25…7678backed Oliveira | 18c | 1,900$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.92 | 118 | 44.1%52 W · 66 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9267…0f9abacked Martínez | 80c | 1,637$1,309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.3 | 160 | 49.4%79 W · 81 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7455…93adbacked Oliveira | 19c | 1,627$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.26 | 195 | 31.8%62 W · 133 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe842…27d6backed Oliveira | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 101 | 2%2 W · 99 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -76.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa7dd…1e23backed Oliveira | 16c | 765.29$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 105 | 29.5%31 W · 74 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Oliveira | 17c | 555$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.6 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c87…70d5backed Oliveira | 16c | 518.75$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Martínez | 80c | 501.99$401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.02 | 143 | 55.9%80 W · 63 L | +7.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Oliveira | 21c | 500$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.5 | 221 | 44.3%98 W · 123 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Oliveira | 5c | 481.81$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0041…7dccbacked Oliveira | 20c | 470$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -18%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa53a…e4f1backed Martínez | 80c | 400$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 121 | 59.5%72 W · 49 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe545…a68cbacked Oliveira | 26c | 388.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 141 | 30.5%43 W · 98 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x024a…decbbacked Oliveira | 19c | 385.5$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.27 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +4.2wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x74be…4e55backed Oliveira | 17c | 300$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…fc02backed Martínez | 74c | 292.31$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Oliveira | 10c | 286.91$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.04 | 210 | 31.9%67 W · 143 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83ce…1778backed Oliveira | 17c | 209.56$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2730…63eebacked Martínez | 80c | 207.7$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.54 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +2.3wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c46…be29backed Oliveira | 17c | 200$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 88 | 51.1%45 W · 43 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0682…4250backed Oliveira | 17c | 172$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.24 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad8c…8cc3backed Oliveira | 16c | 169.94$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.89 | 93 | 52.7%49 W · 44 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed Martínez | 80c | 167$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.59 | 80 | 60%48 W · 32 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaca6…6b28backed Oliveira | 15c | 126.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72fe…e2cebacked Martínez | 80c | 85$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 90 | 62.2%56 W · 34 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…818dbacked Oliveira | 24c | 54$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb463…aa6abacked Martínez | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34c8…4c9fbacked Martínez | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -3.0wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Martínez vs. Oliveirathis page
- Cháirez vs. VergaraCháirez won
- Emmers vs. MirandaEmmers won
- García vs. PichelGarcía won
- Godinez vs. PolastriGodinez won
- Mederos vs. HubbardMederos won
- Medina vs. GautierGautier won
- Moreno vs. ErcegMoreno won
- Rodriguez vs. CostaCosta won
- Rodríguez vs. BorjasBorjas won
- Rosas Jr. vs. MoralesRosas Jr. won
- Torres vs. DoberTorres won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.