UFC · resolved market
Rosas Jr. vs. Morales
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x016b7f9a7b1cb512bf49ce58ed20916664f892d852725351412616e1a122d3d5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Rosas Jr.of Rosas Jr., Morales
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $87,047
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $111,073
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $87,047 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe842…27d6backed Morales | 4c | 11,161$422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$421.74 | 101 | 2%2 W · 99 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -76.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Morales | 21c | 9,569$1,994 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,993.59 | 358 | 26%93 W · 265 L | -7.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x975b…2d5fbacked Morales | 1c | 7,239$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.07 | 141 | 29.8%42 W · 99 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -27%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xace4…bd19backed Rosas Jr. | 79c | 7,000$5,530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,470 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafba…e61bbacked Morales | 19c | 6,401$1,216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,216.2 | 352 | 53.1%187 W · 165 L | +27.7wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb5d2…317bbacked Morales | 14c | 3,264$472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$472 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Morales | 17c | 2,411$406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405.84 | 420 | 42.6%179 W · 241 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Morales | 10c | 1,797$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.54 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0434…a98cbacked Morales | 18c | 1,500$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 265 | 52.1%138 W · 127 L | +23.9wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Morales | 16c | 1,118$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.95 | 147 | 51%75 W · 72 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked Rosas Jr. | 80c | 1,047$838 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.4 | 185 | 60%111 W · 74 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Morales | 18c | 1,000$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 355 | 39.4%140 W · 215 L | -19.1wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa7dd…1e23backed Morales | 18c | 761.11$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 105 | 29.5%31 W · 74 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Morales | 20c | 599.99$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 221 | 44.3%98 W · 123 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74be…4e55backed Morales | 18c | 473$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.14 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe545…a68cbacked Morales | 23c | 434.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 141 | 30.5%43 W · 98 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c46…be29backed Morales | 21c | 400$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 88 | 51.1%45 W · 43 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ea…810abacked Morales | 15c | 313$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.95 | 62 | 45.2%28 W · 34 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb4c…2f6bbacked Rosas Jr. | 79c | 300$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +13%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7455…93adbacked Morales | 19c | 251.94$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.87 | 195 | 31.8%62 W · 133 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Morales | 16c | 245.65$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.3 | 143 | 55.9%80 W · 63 L | +7.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x60ff…5ec3backed Morales | 21c | 238.1$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 100 | 40%40 W · 60 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Morales | 19c | 210.74$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.04 | 184 | 53.8%99 W · 85 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Morales | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 210 | 31.9%67 W · 143 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x095f…41b7backed Morales | 20c | 160$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72fe…e2cebacked Rosas Jr. | 80c | 160$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 90 | 62.2%56 W · 34 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…9ef1backed Morales | 20c | 119$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Morales | 14c | 116.28$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.28 | 332 | 53.3%177 W · 155 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea81…30b5backed Morales | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 283 | 33.2%94 W · 189 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Morales | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 367 | 45.8%168 W · 199 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb68d…f913backed Morales | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0682…4250backed Morales | 17c | 99.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd730…9a24backed Rosas Jr. | 80c | 98.89$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.89 | 29 | 75.9%22 W · 7 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 67cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb6…ec60backed Morales | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 246 | 49.6%122 W · 124 L | +14.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed Morales | 16c | 83$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.28 | 80 | 60%48 W · 32 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…fc02backed Morales | 20c | 76.72$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.53 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed Morales | 20c | 69.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 339 | 48.1%163 W · 176 L | -16.2wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Rosas Jr. vs. Moralesthis page
- Cháirez vs. VergaraCháirez won
- Emmers vs. MirandaEmmers won
- García vs. PichelGarcía won
- Godinez vs. PolastriGodinez won
- Martínez vs. OliveiraMartínez won
- Mederos vs. HubbardMederos won
- Medina vs. GautierGautier won
- Moreno vs. ErcegMoreno won
- Rodriguez vs. CostaCosta won
- Rodríguez vs. BorjasBorjas won
- Torres vs. DoberTorres won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.