UFC · resolved market
Moreno vs. Erceg
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd214a1768fe97dad6a3386da9427aad1c08587dab91c0b7bb5a03c382d683342
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Morenoof Moreno, Erceg
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $155,897
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $159,742
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $155,897 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 129 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xafba…e61bbacked Moreno | 63c | 43,834$27,430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,403.26 | 352 | 53.1%187 W · 165 L | +27.7wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa47a…fd11backed Erceg | 38c | 34,520$13,036 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,036.33 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93fc…34b6backed Erceg | 31c | 20,511$6,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,400 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01ba…b77abacked Moreno | 69c | 11,000$7,590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,410 | 222 | 59.5%132 W · 90 L | +15.1wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x12af…ff78backed Moreno | 69c | 7,444$5,106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,337.62 | 105 | 42.9%45 W · 60 L | -8.1wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Erceg | 31c | 6,014$1,880 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,880.23 | 358 | 26%93 W · 265 L | -7.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef38…ae8cbacked Moreno | 69c | 5,324$3,674 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,650.5 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3eb…e855backed Erceg | 31c | 5,002$1,543 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,542.62 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a8b…b1c8backed Erceg | 31c | 4,335$1,328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,328.16 | 136 | 50%68 W · 68 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc822…c185backed Erceg | 25c | 4,285$1,064 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,064.36 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4c86…6993backed Erceg | 30c | 4,002$1,214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,214.43 | 235 | 37%87 W · 148 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Moreno | 68c | 4,000$2,720 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,280 | 420 | 42.6%179 W · 241 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Moreno | 70c | 4,000$2,810 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,189.99 | 243 | 56.8%138 W · 105 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3cf…a5d4backed Moreno | 71c | 3,494$2,480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,013.13 | 58 | 70.7%41 W · 17 L | +6.8wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x70f8…d0d5backed Moreno | 71c | 3,379$2,382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$996.8 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b89…693dbacked Erceg | 32c | 3,313$1,060 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,060 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x975b…2d5fbacked Erceg | 4c | 3,024$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.45 | 141 | 29.8%42 W · 99 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -27%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x574e…3ef1backed Erceg | 4c | 2,350$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93 | 60 | 50%30 W · 30 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71cd…912dbacked Erceg | 15c | 2,300$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | +22%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd6…f5f4backed Erceg | 25c | 2,087$529 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$528.55 | 539 | 56.6%305 W · 234 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9fe…366bbacked Moreno | 69c | 2,000$1,380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$620 | 171 | 58.5%100 W · 71 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Moreno | 70c | 2,000$1,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$599.99 | 399 | 59.6%238 W · 161 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad25…7678backed Erceg | 30c | 1,899$565 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$565.12 | 118 | 44.1%52 W · 66 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked Moreno | 69c | 1,266$874 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392.46 | 185 | 60%111 W · 74 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Moreno | 69c | 1,265$876 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388.85 | 180 | 38.9%70 W · 110 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Erceg | 11c | 1,222$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.4 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x879b…9cb2backed Moreno | 71c | 1,219$865 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$353.7 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9602…4d02backed Erceg | 29c | 1,205$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.53 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 60cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked Moreno | 69c | 1,136$784 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.11 | 115 | 40%46 W · 69 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5d2…317bbacked Erceg | 27c | 1,110$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.7 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf587…1419backed Moreno | 70c | 1,045$730 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.93 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 46cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd353…f6acbacked Erceg | 32c | 1,000$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 252 | 51.2%129 W · 123 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Erceg | 31c | 1,000$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.04 | 355 | 39.4%140 W · 215 L | -19.1wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda44…2b09backed Erceg | 31c | 998.99$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.36 | 69 | 43.5%30 W · 39 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf725…136abacked Erceg | 35c | 867.94$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.25 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8a0…0a7bbacked Moreno | 68c | 850$578 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +92.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8d4…c467backed Erceg | 32c | 850$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6142…0634backed Erceg | 32c | 800$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe49…0eccbacked Moreno | 68c | 800$544 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20a8…f004backed Moreno | 63c | 799.58$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.58 | 209 | 54.1%113 W · 96 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9278…cdb0backed Moreno | 68c | 650$442 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fab…f785backed Erceg | 32c | 650$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7dd…1e23backed Erceg | 32c | 625$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 105 | 29.5%31 W · 74 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb652…2db4backed Moreno | 69c | 589.01$406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.59 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1102…af36backed Moreno | 67c | 577.91$388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.88 | 487 | 49.1%239 W · 248 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f0…e173backed Erceg | 34c | 540.12$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.64 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcda6…6668backed Erceg | 32c | 530$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5267…1433backed Moreno | 68c | 530$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.6 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +100.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed Moreno | 64c | 507.56$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.43 | 215 | 54.4%117 W · 98 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…6c47backed Moreno | 68c | 500$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5ef…3253backed Erceg | 32c | 500$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c46…be29backed Moreno | 70c | 485.69$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.71 | 88 | 51.1%45 W · 43 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Moreno | 68c | 452.53$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.9 | 147 | 51%75 W · 72 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fcb…f91abacked Erceg | 30c | 439.68$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd94…0b01backed Erceg | 42c | 422.22$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178 | 69 | 46.4%32 W · 37 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Moreno | 71c | 400$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116 | 248 | 62.5%155 W · 93 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4889…e2d8backed Moreno | 70c | 371.43$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.43 | 356 | 64.6%230 W · 126 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d9…76dbbacked Erceg | 32c | 350.97$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.31 | 186 | 44.1%82 W · 104 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a2…6a88backed Erceg | 28c | 334$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.51 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13aa…895ebacked Erceg | 32c | 324.16$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.73 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.29per pick | 49cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x239a…a0c6backed Erceg | 31c | 322$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.82 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb58…86a4backed Moreno | 67c | 320.52$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.77 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +50%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe545…a68cbacked Erceg | 33c | 301.07$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 141 | 30.5%43 W · 98 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb4c…2f6bbacked Moreno | 65c | 300.33$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.33 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +13%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x024a…decbbacked Erceg | 33c | 300$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +4.2wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7e3d…bf10backed Erceg | 33c | 300$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4132…a5a5backed Moreno | 71c | 295.31$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.64 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0682…4250backed Erceg | 31c | 290.32$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9de1…896abacked Erceg | 30c | 290$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0434…a98cbacked Moreno | 68c | 287.65$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.82 | 264 | 51.9%137 W · 127 L | +23.0wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf3bb…6b62backed Moreno | 70c | 285.71$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.71 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc8…4c1dbacked Moreno | 70c | 285.71$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.71 | 210 | 44.8%94 W · 116 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad8c…8cc3backed Moreno | 72c | 267.42$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.86 | 93 | 52.7%49 W · 44 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f1…bd6abacked Moreno | 71c | 239.42$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.43 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96df…4caabacked Moreno | 71c | 231$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.99 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…16bebacked Moreno | 69c | 215.93$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.93 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +50.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8718…f02cbacked Erceg | 32c | 200$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4351…645dbacked Moreno | 68c | 200$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +82.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7507…fd58backed Erceg | 32c | 200$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…ae91backed Moreno | 68c | 200$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +82.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x095f…41b7backed Moreno | 70c | 193.28$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.98 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd55c…34febacked Moreno | 68c | 183.42$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.69 | 58 | 58.6%34 W · 24 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea81…30b5backed Erceg | 33c | 179.05$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.26 | 283 | 33.2%94 W · 189 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ea…810abacked Erceg | 27c | 179$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.33 | 62 | 45.2%28 W · 34 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe893…f215backed Moreno | 69c | 171.52$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.17 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9edc…b088backed Erceg | 21c | 170$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.35 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60ff…5ec3backed Erceg | 31c | 161.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 100 | 40%40 W · 60 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2467…c702backed Moreno | 69c | 149$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.19 | 100 | 45%45 W · 55 L | +6.1wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7565…da11backed Erceg | 32c | 145.31$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.5 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +2.7wins | +0.17per pick | 39cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5f16…5546backed Moreno | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.86 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x896d…df2fbacked Moreno | 75c | 142.25$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.25 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +51.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed Moreno | 70c | 128.21$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.1 | 325 | 45.2%147 W · 178 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb6…ec60backed Erceg | 33c | 122.88$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 246 | 49.6%122 W · 124 L | +14.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Moreno | 67c | 121.94$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.66 | 143 | 55.9%80 W · 63 L | +7.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4574…ab3ebacked Moreno | 67c | 117.76$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.04 | 287 | 43.9%126 W · 161 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd730…9a24backed Moreno | 67c | 117.13$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.13 | 29 | 75.9%22 W · 7 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 67cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Moreno | 66c | 112.12$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.12 | 184 | 53.8%99 W · 85 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2537…e959backed Erceg | 31c | 109.87$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.06 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54f5…d9c7backed Moreno | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf41c…c9b3backed Erceg | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 97 | 37.1%36 W · 61 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Moreno vs. Ercegthis page
- Cháirez vs. VergaraCháirez won
- Emmers vs. MirandaEmmers won
- García vs. PichelGarcía won
- Godinez vs. PolastriGodinez won
- Martínez vs. OliveiraMartínez won
- Mederos vs. HubbardMederos won
- Medina vs. GautierGautier won
- Rodriguez vs. CostaCosta won
- Rodríguez vs. BorjasBorjas won
- Rosas Jr. vs. MoralesRosas Jr. won
- Torres vs. DoberTorres won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.