UFC · resolved market
Rodríguez vs. Borjas
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x00e513c5c89d71de4051c7681acbf82d013e518d70dc1a0192944ca288e369fc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Borjasof Rodríguez, Borjas
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $139,118
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $143,729
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $139,118 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9137…5ebfbacked Borjas | 40c | 49,613$20,059 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29,553.33 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa47a…fd11backed Rodríguez | 64c | 37,093$23,774 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23,774.37 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe32e…890bbacked Rodríguez | 57c | 35,436$20,184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,183.57 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafba…e61bbacked Borjas | 43c | 32,651$14,081 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,570.48 | 352 | 53.1%187 W · 165 L | +27.7wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x12af…ff78backed Rodríguez | 63c | 12,203$7,660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,659.91 | 105 | 42.9%45 W · 60 L | -8.1wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7784…5b6dbacked Borjas | 40c | 3,552$1,425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,127 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0db…f44ebacked Borjas | 44c | 3,074$1,353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,721.44 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Borjas | 33c | 2,923$965 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,957.66 | 420 | 42.6%179 W · 241 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x024a…decbbacked Borjas | 37c | 2,728$1,007 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,721.2 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +4.2wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5172…0581backed Rodríguez | 10c | 2,400$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 34 | 2.9%1 W · 33 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -73.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x476a…76bdbacked Borjas | 43c | 2,093$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,193.02 | 62 | 62.9%39 W · 23 L | +8.7wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Rodríguez | 55c | 2,000$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100 | 162 | 47.5%77 W · 85 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9267…0f9abacked Rodríguez | 59c | 1,922$1,143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,143.24 | 160 | 49.4%79 W · 81 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70f8…d0d5backed Rodríguez | 67c | 1,845$1,236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,236 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb5d2…317bbacked Borjas | 33c | 1,795$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,194.95 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad25…7678backed Borjas | 41c | 1,750$714 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,036.39 | 118 | 44.1%52 W · 66 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cde…5b98backed Rodríguez | 11c | 1,636$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.96 | 61 | 9.8%6 W · 55 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9fe…366bbacked Borjas | 41c | 1,383$567 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$815.76 | 171 | 58.5%100 W · 71 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Rodríguez | 63c | 1,325$838 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$838.25 | 243 | 56.8%138 W · 105 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Borjas | 40c | 1,325$530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$794.99 | 180 | 38.9%70 W · 110 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x879b…9cb2backed Borjas | 35c | 1,258$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$817.81 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfaa2…93ccbacked Borjas | 40c | 1,225$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$735 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe842…27d6backed Rodríguez | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 101 | 2%2 W · 99 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -76.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb58…86a4backed Borjas | 40c | 962.5$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$577.5 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +50%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea5…2af9backed Rodríguez | 67c | 750.79$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x975b…2d5fbacked Rodríguez | 31c | 701.21$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.07 | 141 | 29.8%42 W · 99 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -27%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd161…4cc1backed Borjas | 35c | 690$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$448.5 | 309 | 64.7%200 W · 109 L | +24.5wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7ccf…2fedbacked Rodríguez | 67c | 662.69$444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$444 | 64 | 62.5%40 W · 24 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Rodríguez | 56c | 599.99$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339 | 221 | 44.3%98 W · 123 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e87…8befbacked Rodríguez | 67c | 597.01$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 63 | 52.4%33 W · 30 L | -5.2wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked Borjas | 40c | 565$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339 | 185 | 60%111 W · 74 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Borjas | 38c | 556.76$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344.48 | 147 | 51%75 W · 72 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Borjas | 39c | 555$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.55 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c87…70d5backed Rodríguez | 62c | 520.31$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked Rodríguez | 29c | 507.79$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.97 | 115 | 40%46 W · 69 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74be…4e55backed Rodríguez | 4c | 500$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Rodríguez | 67c | 450$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.5 | 399 | 59.6%238 W · 161 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Borjas | 34c | 432.77$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.63 | 332 | 53.3%177 W · 155 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9d…c74bbacked Rodríguez | 58c | 376$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.08 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83ce…1778backed Rodríguez | 28c | 311.69$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Rodríguez | 55c | 303.18$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168 | 184 | 53.8%99 W · 85 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa046…00c7backed Rodríguez | 66c | 300$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x931f…d15dbacked Rodríguez | 67c | 298.51$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd3cf…a5d4backed Borjas | 72c | 284.3$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.6 | 58 | 70.7%41 W · 17 L | +6.8wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf587…1419backed Rodríguez | 41c | 250$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.17 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 46cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe545…a68cbacked Borjas | 43c | 232.56$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.56 | 141 | 30.5%43 W · 98 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c72…5c26backed Rodríguez | 65c | 230$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.5 | 104 | 52.9%55 W · 49 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24d2…92c5backed Borjas | 46c | 200$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.16 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Borjas | 58c | 191.07$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.09 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d7…25e9backed Rodríguez | 57c | 158.52$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.36 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 59cpaid | -34%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c46…be29backed Rodríguez | 67c | 150$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.5 | 88 | 51.1%45 W · 43 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1102…af36backed Borjas | 47c | 150$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.5 | 487 | 49.1%239 W · 248 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08f4…7700backed Rodríguez | 17c | 149.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb4c…2f6bbacked Borjas | 75c | 145.82$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.37 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +13%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ea…810abacked Borjas | 34c | 142.99$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.37 | 62 | 45.2%28 W · 34 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0682…4250backed Rodríguez | 46c | 126.61$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd614…1fa3backed Borjas | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 378 | 54.8%207 W · 171 L | +20.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x095f…41b7backed Borjas | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed Borjas | 35c | 100$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 202 | 49%99 W · 103 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4574…ab3ebacked Rodríguez | 58c | 100$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 287 | 43.9%126 W · 161 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd68e…f46bbacked Borjas | 42c | 95.24$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.24 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.6wins | +0.37per pick | 49cpaid | +93.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed Borjas | 39c | 88$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.69 | 80 | 60%48 W · 32 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab43…f7b3backed Rodríguez | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 160 | 58.8%94 W · 66 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Borjas | 40c | 82.36$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.77 | 143 | 55.9%80 W · 63 L | +7.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffc…6988backed Rodríguez | 66c | 75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 85 | 35.3%30 W · 55 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad8c…8cc3backed Rodríguez | 67c | 74.63$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 93 | 52.7%49 W · 44 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0af8…9454backed Borjas | 53c | 65.94$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.94 | 99 | 50.5%50 W · 49 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf41c…c9b3backed Borjas | 36c | 55.66$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.66 | 97 | 37.1%36 W · 61 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed Borjas | 46c | 54.04$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.18 | 215 | 54.4%117 W · 98 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked Borjas | 34c | 50.35$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.2 | 104 | 39.4%41 W · 63 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc104…a5c0backed Rodríguez | 67c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafb7…75f4backed Rodríguez | 67c | 41.88$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.06 | 76 | 55.3%42 W · 34 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…818dbacked Borjas | 45c | 36$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.93 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd79…f93ebacked Rodríguez | 67c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 522 | 52.9%276 W · 246 L | +15.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Rodríguez vs. Borjasthis page
- Cháirez vs. VergaraCháirez won
- Emmers vs. MirandaEmmers won
- García vs. PichelGarcía won
- Godinez vs. PolastriGodinez won
- Martínez vs. OliveiraMartínez won
- Mederos vs. HubbardMederos won
- Medina vs. GautierGautier won
- Moreno vs. ErcegMoreno won
- Rodriguez vs. CostaCosta won
- Rosas Jr. vs. MoralesRosas Jr. won
- Torres vs. DoberTorres won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.