UFC · resolved market
Rodriguez vs. Costa
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x161bdcfcfe8db18f9913e1957d0f7d4d132986c80aea86d4200644edd00406be
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Costaof Rodriguez, Costa
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $60,837
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $71,876
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $60,837 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x12af…ff78backed Rodriguez | 65c | 21,712$14,082 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,081.96 | 105 | 42.9%45 W · 60 L | -8.1wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xafba…e61bbacked Costa | 35c | 18,000$6,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,700 | 352 | 53.1%187 W · 165 L | +27.7wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Rodriguez | 65c | 4,913$3,172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,172.16 | 420 | 42.6%179 W · 241 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3cf…a5d4backed Costa | 38c | 3,544$1,362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,182.25 | 58 | 70.7%41 W · 17 L | +6.8wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x01ba…b77abacked Rodriguez | 60c | 3,000$1,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,800 | 222 | 59.5%132 W · 90 L | +15.1wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5172…0581backed Rodriguez | 5c | 2,400$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 34 | 2.9%1 W · 33 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -73.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Costa | 37c | 2,198$813 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,385.03 | 358 | 26%93 W · 265 L | -7.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x975b…2d5fbacked Rodriguez | 17c | 1,908$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.4 | 141 | 29.8%42 W · 99 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -27%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb34d…ef8bbacked Costa | 35c | 1,803$631 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,172.18 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +38%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x024a…decbbacked Costa | 36c | 1,583$572 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,010.79 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +4.2wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4c86…6993backed Costa | 40c | 1,500$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$900 | 235 | 37%87 W · 148 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3eb…e855backed Costa | 39c | 1,480$583 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$897.2 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9137…5ebfbacked Costa | 41c | 1,256$514 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$742.56 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x476a…76bdbacked Costa | 36c | 1,250$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$800 | 62 | 62.9%39 W · 23 L | +8.7wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd6…f5f4backed Rodriguez | 63c | 1,094$689 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$689.16 | 539 | 56.6%305 W · 234 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Rodriguez | 62c | 1,039$645 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$644.75 | 180 | 38.9%70 W · 110 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad25…7678backed Rodriguez | 59c | 1,028$607 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$606.62 | 118 | 44.1%52 W · 66 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9fe…366bbacked Costa | 40c | 1,020$408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$611.7 | 171 | 58.5%100 W · 71 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe842…27d6backed Rodriguez | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 101 | 2%2 W · 99 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -76.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Costa | 36c | 1,000$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$644.8 | 355 | 39.4%140 W · 215 L | -19.1wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Rodriguez | 64c | 966.35$616 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$616.08 | 147 | 51%75 W · 72 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe505…d18bbacked Rodriguez | 67c | 919.72$616 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$615.62 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5d2…317bbacked Costa | 33c | 910$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$609.7 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Rodriguez | 64c | 881$567 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$566.96 | 332 | 53.3%177 W · 155 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ccf…2fedbacked Rodriguez | 64c | 862$555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$555 | 64 | 62.5%40 W · 24 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70f8…d0d5backed Rodriguez | 68c | 735.29$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4889…e2d8backed Rodriguez | 66c | 678.36$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 356 | 64.6%230 W · 126 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e87…8befbacked Rodriguez | 66c | 609.85$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 63 | 52.4%33 W · 30 L | -5.2wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb58…86a4backed Costa | 41c | 479.11$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.61 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +50%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Costa | 34c | 424.32$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.51 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…fc02backed Rodriguez | 59c | 350$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.5 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9d…c74bbacked Rodriguez | 60c | 320$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d9…76dbbacked Costa | 40c | 320$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192 | 186 | 44.1%82 W · 104 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Costa | 35c | 300$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195 | 399 | 59.6%238 W · 161 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Rodriguez | 66c | 299.99$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198 | 248 | 62.5%155 W · 93 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Costa | 39c | 299.99$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.99 | 221 | 44.3%98 W · 123 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x931f…d15dbacked Rodriguez | 68c | 295.31$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c72…5c26backed Costa | 35c | 285$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.25 | 104 | 52.9%55 W · 49 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked Rodriguez | 61c | 251.19$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.23 | 185 | 60%111 W · 74 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe545…a68cbacked Costa | 41c | 243.9$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.9 | 141 | 30.5%43 W · 98 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ed0…92debacked Costa | 41c | 243.9$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.9 | 122 | 45.1%55 W · 67 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2467…c702backed Costa | 36c | 230.51$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.53 | 100 | 45%45 W · 55 L | +6.1wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa7dd…1e23backed Rodriguez | 67c | 165.06$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 105 | 29.5%31 W · 74 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc8…4c1dbacked Rodriguez | 66c | 151.52$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 210 | 44.8%94 W · 116 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c87…70d5backed Costa | 35c | 142.86$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.86 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60ff…5ec3backed Costa | 36c | 138.89$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.89 | 100 | 40%40 W · 60 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x095f…41b7backed Rodriguez | 38c | 130.95$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.76 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd55c…34febacked Rodriguez | 60c | 129.72$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.83 | 58 | 58.6%34 W · 24 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa2…4d22backed Costa | 40c | 118.46$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.08 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | -5.6wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd614…1fa3backed Rodriguez | 26c | 118.44$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.22 | 377 | 54.6%206 W · 171 L | +19.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed Rodriguez | 59c | 111.55$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.21 | 339 | 48.1%163 W · 176 L | -16.2wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4574…ab3ebacked Rodriguez | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 287 | 43.9%126 W · 161 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa046…00c7backed Rodriguez | 61c | 100$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf35f…c62abacked Rodriguez | 64c | 100$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0682…4250backed Costa | 35c | 100$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaca6…6b28backed Rodriguez | 23c | 96.1$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.98 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Rodriguez | 64c | 93.29$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.51 | 143 | 55.9%80 W · 63 L | +7.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a2…6a88backed Rodriguez | 65c | 92$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.8 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f1…bd6abacked Costa | 35c | 85.71$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.71 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad8c…8cc3backed Rodriguez | 50c | 82.79$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.64 | 93 | 52.7%49 W · 44 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab43…f7b3backed Costa | 40c | 82.5$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.5 | 160 | 58.8%94 W · 66 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x239a…a0c6backed Rodriguez | 57c | 80$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.6 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed Costa | 58c | 78.88$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.91 | 215 | 54.4%117 W · 98 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ea…810abacked Rodriguez | 63c | 78$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.14 | 62 | 45.2%28 W · 34 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked Rodriguez | 65c | 69$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.62 | 104 | 39.4%41 W · 63 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1102…af36backed Costa | 40c | 60$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 487 | 49.1%239 W · 248 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf41c…c9b3backed Costa | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.82 | 97 | 37.1%36 W · 61 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc063…99cfbacked Rodriguez | 61c | 58.46$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.66 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -5.7wins | -0.20per pick | 61cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x84f8…0ff2backed Costa | 35c | 57.13$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.13 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f7…ac2cbacked Rodriguez | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 63 | 60.3%38 W · 25 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1236…c5d7backed Rodriguez | 46c | 28.19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4146…01a2backed Costa | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd8…5ddcbacked Rodriguez | 61c | 24.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Rodriguez vs. Costathis page
- Cháirez vs. VergaraCháirez won
- Emmers vs. MirandaEmmers won
- García vs. PichelGarcía won
- Godinez vs. PolastriGodinez won
- Martínez vs. OliveiraMartínez won
- Mederos vs. HubbardMederos won
- Medina vs. GautierGautier won
- Moreno vs. ErcegMoreno won
- Rodríguez vs. BorjasBorjas won
- Rosas Jr. vs. MoralesRosas Jr. won
- Torres vs. DoberTorres won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.