World Politics · resolved market
Will Venstre win the third most seats in the Danish Folketing in the 2026 Danish general election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x17a419d9fb33090bec9da9bd6a5c47ac48877b51458b85c42d4e244494e53b09
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,974
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,974 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x629b…995abacked Yes | 51c | 4,667$2,374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,293.85 | 432 | 43.1%186 W · 246 L | +29.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6967…84bfbacked Yes | 69c | 2,150$1,483 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$666.97 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -3.4wins | -0.19per pick | 46cpaid | -60.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9e88…301cbacked Yes | 11c | 1,026$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$916.25 | 83 | 21.7%18 W · 65 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa220…5c87backed No | 69c | 865.93$597 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$597.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdae3…32f9backed Yes | 31c | 865.93$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$597.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +222.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5085…d8a4backed No | 7c | 559.38$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.62 | 45 | 33.3%15 W · 30 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4619…3f91backed Yes | 75c | 434.26$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.45 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 44c | 423.91$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.57 | 106 | 52.8%56 W · 50 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 34c | 285$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.1 | 91 | 23.1%21 W · 70 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +42.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d7e…a7b0backed Yes | 37c | 209.39$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.94 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e4…471abacked Yes | 19c | 209.39$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.94 | 150 | 22.7%34 W · 116 L | +8.6wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +43%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 19c | 200$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162 | 284 | 34.2%97 W · 187 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed Yes | 42c | 184.31$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.76 | 76 | 31.6%24 W · 52 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -27%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 33c | 156$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.13 | 449 | 21.2%95 W · 354 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 74c | 149.03$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.79 | 154 | 46.8%72 W · 82 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98d0…f14abacked Yes | 23c | 144.8$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.16 | 149 | 47.7%71 W · 78 L | +6.9wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe0b3…b1ccbacked Yes | 35c | 143.47$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.47 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +74.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b62…438cbacked Yes | 27c | 130$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.9 | 125 | 56.8%71 W · 54 L | +12.5wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed No | 66c | 128.69$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.76 | 170 | 37.6%64 W · 106 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xece7…3673backed Yes | 30c | 123.56$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.01 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 74c | 117.99$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.94 | 82 | 52.4%43 W · 39 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2aba…e2c6backed Yes | 73c | 108$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.7 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39a5…87f2backed Yes | 27c | 107$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.11 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed No | 12c | 101.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | +5.4wins | +0.14per pick | 12cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc2be…66b0backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 17c | 99.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.18 | 990 | 17.2%170 W · 820 L | -148.8wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe82b…52b4backed Yes | 27c | 99.28$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.73per pick | 27cpaid | +270.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89db…a31dbacked Yes | 45c | 97.1$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +124.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 45c | 88.01$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.79 | 394 | 14%55 W · 339 L | -71.9wins | -0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed Yes | 77c | 86.13$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.38 | 78 | 33.3%26 W · 52 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 19c | 82.31$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.97 | 444 | 28.8%128 W · 316 L | -67.6wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 26c | 81.94$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.64 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3de…e227backed Yes | 18c | 79.39$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.1 | 239 | 21.3%51 W · 188 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 80c | 77.66$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.13 | 549 | 34.6%190 W · 359 L | -37.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 58c | 65$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 260 | 52.3%136 W · 124 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 59c | 60$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.4 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0478…b49ebacked Yes | 64c | 58.34$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.17 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 70cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56b6…d3eebacked Yes | 73c | 50.29$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.58 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc93e…786abacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5421…449cbacked Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 42 | 64.3%27 W · 15 L | +6.7wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0121…f82cbacked Yes | 77c | 47.72$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a27…2fdcbacked Yes | 30c | 47.59$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e7…4cdebacked Yes | 27c | 47.4$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.65 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.4wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1955…e6e8backed Yes | 42c | 38$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.04 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 57cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 63c | 37.31$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.68 | 182 | 46.2%84 W · 98 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 57c | 24.11$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.74 | 142 | 50%71 W · 71 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34a1…0847backed No | 77c | 21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.08 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9e…9ec0backed No | 76c | 14.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Venstre win the third most seats in the Danish Folketing in the 2026 Danish general election?this page
- Will Danish People’s Party win the third most seats in the Danish Folketing in the 2026 Danish general election?No won
- Will Denmark Democrats win the third most seats in the Danish Folketing in the 2026 Danish general election?No won
- Will Green Left win the third most seats in the Danish Folketing in the 2026 Danish general election?No won
- Will Liberal Alliance win the third most seats in the Danish Folketing in the 2026 Danish general election?No won
- Will Moderates win the third most seats in the Danish Folketing in the 2026 Danish general election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.