UFC · resolved market

UFC 322: Hill vs. Kline (Women's Strawweight, Early Prelims)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x17ae42221b19cae85bc2cf66c9fdf2f5c19e759f2cf0e1c2ef496b55c1525e7d

Rebuilt 10 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Klineof Hill, Kline
Resolved: Nov 15, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $88,096
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $101,032

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $88,096 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in UFC
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x5139…a8dbbacked Hill	17c	14,578$2,524 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,524.1	89	40.4%36 W · 53 L	+4.9wins	+0.06per pick	35cpaid	+11.9%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Hill	17c	10,401$1,812 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,811.96	72	33.3%24 W · 48 L	-5.0wins	-0.07per pick	40cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd267…9dc6backed Hill	17c	6,000$1,020 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,020	125	41.6%52 W · 73 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	42cpaid	-8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x01ba…b77abacked Hill	17c	5,000$850 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$849.99	222	59.5%132 W · 90 L	+15.1wins	+0.07per pick	53cpaid	+12.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Hill	17c	2,298$391 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$390.74	52	44.2%23 W · 29 L	-2.3wins	-0.04per pick	49cpaid	-17.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed Hill	20c	2,050$410 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$410	358	26%93 W · 265 L	-7.5wins	-0.02per pick	28cpaid	-14.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x29c0…efaabacked Hill	17c	2,039$347 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$346.67	180	38.9%70 W · 110 L	+3.6wins	+0.02per pick	37cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x83b9…6124backed Hill	17c	1,984$341 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$341.48	35	25.7%9 W · 26 L	-4.8wins	-0.14per pick	39cpaid	-43.9%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1e5b…d4ecbacked Hill	17c	1,500$255 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$255	33	15.2%5 W · 28 L	-3.3wins	-0.10per pick	25cpaid	-45.9%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x13fa…3facbacked Hill	17c	1,500$255 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$255	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	-44.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x30ef…70dfbacked Hill	18c	1,400$248 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$247.88	109	28.4%31 W · 78 L	-4.3wins	-0.04per pick	32cpaid	-19.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x50dd…c186backed Hill	17c	1,296$220 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$220.26	65	33.8%22 W · 43 L	-4.3wins	-0.07per pick	41cpaid	-23.7%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd6ce…0772backed Kline	80c	1,250$1,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$250	4	75%3 W · 1 L	+0.4wins	+0.11per pick	64cpaid	+8.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x26cf…c612backed Hill	17c	1,204$205 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$205.18	905	53.6%485 W · 420 L	+46.4wins	+0.05per pick	48cpaid	+8.1%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd04d…d0e5backed Hill	17c	1,000$170 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$170	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	-0.7wins	-0.09per pick	46cpaid	-41.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc1b3…501cbacked Hill	18c	936.97$169 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$168.65	20	45%9 W · 11 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	44cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x83ce…1778backed Hill	9c	872.79$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	72	33.3%24 W · 48 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	34cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb0d7…f9fabacked Kline	80c	865$689 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$175.72	122	62.3%76 W · 46 L	+3.4wins	+0.03per pick	60cpaid	+10.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Hill	16c	685.96$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$109.75	184	53.8%99 W · 85 L	+2.8wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x93db…1773backed Hill	18c	680$122 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$122.4	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.18per pick	18cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd614…1fa3backed Hill	6c	623.69$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.1	377	54.6%206 W · 171 L	+19.6wins	+0.05per pick	49cpaid	+3%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Hill	17c	586$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97.69	149	29.5%44 W · 105 L	-15.2wins	-0.10per pick	40cpaid	-39.4%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x7cf4…20b3backed Hill	18c	555.56$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	35	34.3%12 W · 23 L	-4.0wins	-0.11per pick	46cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0xf40b…d4a4backed Hill	18c	555.56$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.18per pick	18cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2140…6598backed Hill	18c	555.56$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	134	50%67 W · 67 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Hill	3c	525$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.25	93	36.6%34 W · 59 L	-1.1wins	-0.01per pick	38cpaid	-22.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3289…4538backed Hill	21c	500$105 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$105	23	43.5%10 W · 13 L	-1.4wins	-0.06per pick	49cpaid	-21.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x06e8…4675backed Hill	17c	484.53$82 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82.37	88	35.2%31 W · 57 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	35cpaid	-19.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Hill	5c	419.35$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.79	201	39.8%80 W · 121 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	40cpaid	-21.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe3ab…482ebacked Hill	10c	382.86$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38	17	29.4%5 W · 12 L	+0.4wins	+0.02per pick	27cpaid	-21.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdf37…8b49backed Hill	17c	369.98$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.9	31	45.2%14 W · 17 L	-1.0wins	-0.03per pick	48cpaid	-16.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4c86…6993backed Hill	17c	366.75$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.35	235	37%87 W · 148 L	-3.8wins	-0.02per pick	39cpaid	-15.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4375…2c0cbacked Hill	6c	320.17$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.21	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.4wins	-0.21per pick	21cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d01…0ab1backed Hill	15c	300$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	25	40%10 W · 15 L	-0.9wins	-0.03per pick	43cpaid	-28.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x54b5…4b31backed Hill	18c	300$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54	367	45.8%168 W · 199 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1f7b…d405backed Hill	17c	299$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.83	26	30.8%8 W · 18 L	-1.3wins	-0.05per pick	36cpaid	-26%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2f09…4632backed Hill	17c	296$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.32	64	51.6%33 W · 31 L	+2.0wins	+0.03per pick	48cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x390c…75b5backed Hill	17c	294.12$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.17per pick	17cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe922…39b3backed Hill	17c	294.12$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	155	52.3%81 W · 74 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+4.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9781…bc2abacked Hill	18c	277.78$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	9	55.6%5 W · 4 L	+1.2wins	+0.14per pick	42cpaid	+20%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa8fe…01ecbacked Hill	18c	277.78$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.15per pick	15cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x723c…01ebbacked Hill	17c	235.29$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	19	15.8%3 W · 16 L	-3.2wins	-0.17per pick	33cpaid	-65.2%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb575…2090backed Hill	18c	222.22$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	37	37.8%14 W · 23 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	36cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x41b4…de82backed Hill	11c	221.99$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.42	105	22.9%24 W · 81 L	-4.0wins	-0.04per pick	27cpaid	-16%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf903…e028backed Hill	17c	207.47$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.89	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.17per pick	17cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1102…af36backed Hill	24c	199.99$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48	487	49.1%239 W · 248 L	-8.3wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x30b8…f41fbacked Hill	17c	172.96$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.4	77	36.4%28 W · 49 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	38cpaid	+2.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xea9e…d3fbbacked Hill	19c	149.69$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.44	148	27%40 W · 108 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	27cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2eb5…c2adbacked Hill	17c	147.06$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	40	30%12 W · 28 L	-4.0wins	-0.10per pick	40cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb8fd…aae9backed Hill	17c	147.06$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	7	71.4%5 W · 2 L	+1.7wins	+0.25per pick	47cpaid	+56.4%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5cfe…ed69backed Hill	18c	130$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.5	167	36.5%61 W · 106 L	-7.1wins	-0.04per pick	41cpaid	-12.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3916…53c7backed Hill	18c	123.83$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.29	50	38%19 W · 31 L	-1.7wins	-0.03per pick	41cpaid	-18%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Hill	17c	116.4$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.79	43	37.2%16 W · 27 L	-1.2wins	-0.03per pick	40cpaid	-9.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ca2…8c3fbacked Hill	18c	112.17$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.19	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.18per pick	18cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9083…d27bbacked Hill	18c	111.11$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	151	39.7%60 W · 91 L	-3.6wins	-0.02per pick	42cpaid	-13.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6f4…0566backed Hill	17c	100$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	88	40.9%36 W · 52 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	41cpaid	-12.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x73a0…68dfbacked Hill	20c	100$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	15	46.7%7 W · 8 L	+1.4wins	+0.09per pick	38cpaid	+25.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1247…9ce9backed Hill	17c	100$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	38	39.5%15 W · 23 L	-2.9wins	-0.08per pick	47cpaid	-11.2%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x553b…f71cbacked Hill	17c	100$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	10	60%6 W · 4 L	+1.5wins	+0.15per pick	45cpaid	+6.8%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0d52…834ebacked Hill	17c	95.09$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.17	92	28.3%26 W · 66 L	-7.5wins	-0.08per pick	36cpaid	-31.1%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xdfc1…818dbacked Hill	25c	89$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.25	30	53.3%16 W · 14 L	+1.3wins	+0.04per pick	49cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x503b…aa93backed Kline	76c	87.54$67 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.01	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-1.3wins	-0.44per pick	77cpaid	-56.1%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9792…b8eebacked Kline	77c	80.85$62 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.93	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+0.5wins	+0.24per pick	76cpaid	+32%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3d94…92c9backed Kline	76c	76.01$58 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.24	20	40%8 W · 12 L	-2.8wins	-0.14per pick	54cpaid	-41.3%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed Hill	18c	63$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.34	37	56.8%21 W · 16 L	+1.2wins	+0.03per pick	53cpaid	+5.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Hill	20c	60$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.85	194	18.6%36 W · 158 L	-3.4wins	-0.02per pick	20cpaid	-16.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4db2…60a4backed Hill	20c	50$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-1.2wins	-0.31per pick	31cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

UFC 322: Hill vs. Kline (Women's Strawweight, Early Prelims)this page
Fight to Go the Distance?Yes won
O/U 2.5 RoundsOver won
Will Fatima Kline win by KO or TKO?No won
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?No won
Will the fight be won by submission?No won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

UFC 322: Hill vs. Kline (Women's Strawweight, Early Prelims)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event