NBA · resolved market
Cameron Johnson: Points O/U 11.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1829b98c04e01fc8531ba14e8de66e3d3b7a6c409822c1fdcc82226cd1774fa0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,649
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,469
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,649 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4488…579cbacked Yes | 30c | 3,049$913 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$912.78 | 775 | 49.2%381 W · 394 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b45…9723backed No | 74c | 1,785$1,323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$461.75 | 260 | 69.2%180 W · 80 L | +9.6wins | +0.04per pick | 66cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9719…6ffabacked No | 75c | 1,117$837 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.56 | 66 | 69.7%46 W · 20 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed No | 65c | 1,000$650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350 | 908 | 63.9%580 W · 328 L | +80.6wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd529…f0d4backed No | 66c | 897.94$593 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.3 | 1,085 | 63.6%690 W · 395 L | +86.7wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +13%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9f1e…0673backed Yes | 34c | 566.43$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.82 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked No | 73c | 547.71$401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.2 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…4f9cbacked Yes | 25c | 400$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 155 | 43.2%67 W · 88 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed No | 71c | 341.15$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.31 | 288 | 42.7%123 W · 165 L | +6.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7db8…bbcebacked Yes | 34c | 294.65$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +2.8wins | +0.15per pick | 38cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef7…2ed1backed Yes | 28c | 250$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 30cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x345d…4e41backed No | 66c | 226.34$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.96 | 92 | 67.4%62 W · 30 L | +6.2wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe055…aff3backed Yes | 28c | 192.36$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.86 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb48e…d489backed Yes | 32c | 187.86$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa858…3684backed Yes | 23c | 187.23$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22fb…26a7backed Yes | 28c | 178.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -2.9wins | -0.19per pick | 32cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f4…1b58backed Yes | 28c | 164.29$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae9d…d417backed Yes | 25c | 160$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 63 | 54%34 W · 29 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4729…8cfdbacked Yes | 30c | 134.9$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | -4.3wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x045c…02b9backed Yes | 27c | 111.11$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…f9d1backed No | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 952 | 60.2%573 W · 379 L | +37.0wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16ef…3792backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b2…fda3backed Yes | 27c | 88.89$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65d9…c35bbacked Yes | 25c | 77.56$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.39 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5430…c1d3backed No | 67c | 74.78$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.04 | 227 | 74.4%169 W · 58 L | +22.5wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x712b…d2c0backed Yes | 27c | 70.37$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa528…2499backed No | 67c | 68.63$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.65 | 831 | 58.1%483 W · 348 L | +18.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89fa…6ab0backed Yes | 25c | 64$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc32…ea58backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabdd…2d96backed No | 67c | 48.6$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.95 | 602 | 67.3%405 W · 197 L | +46.2wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed No | 77c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 903 | 57%515 W · 388 L | +40.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5df…6136backed Yes | 30c | 36.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed No | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 969 | 56.3%546 W · 423 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked No | 66c | 19.09$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.49 | 920 | 58%534 W · 386 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x185f…3649backed No | 62c | 17.74$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 29 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cameron Johnson: Points O/U 11.5this page
- 1H Spread: Nuggets (-2.5)Nuggets won
- Austin Reaves: Points O/U 18.5No won
- Cameron Johnson: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Christian Braun: Points O/U 12.5Yes won
- Jamal Murray: Assists O/U 6.5Yes won
- Jamal Murray: Assists O/U 7.5No won
- Jamal Murray: Rebounds O/U 3.5Yes won
- Lakers vs. NuggetsNuggets won
- Lakers vs. Nuggets: 1H MoneylineNuggets won
- Lakers vs. Nuggets: 1H O/U 123.5Under won
- Lakers vs. Nuggets: O/U 237.5Under won
- Lakers vs. Nuggets: O/U 238.5Under won
- Lakers vs. Nuggets: O/U 239.5Under won
- Lakers vs. Nuggets: O/U 240.5Under won
- Lakers vs. Nuggets: O/U 241.5Under won
- LeBron James: Assists O/U 6.5Yes won
- LeBron James: Points O/U 19.5No won
- LeBron James: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
- Luka Dončić: Rebounds O/U 7.5Yes won
- Luke Kennard: Points O/U 8.5No won
- Nikola Jokić: Assists O/U 10.5Yes won
- Nikola Jokić: Assists O/U 9.5Yes won
- Nikola Jokić: Points O/U 29.5No won
- Nikola Jokić: Rebounds O/U 13.5No won
- Spread: Nuggets (-3.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Nuggets (-4.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Nuggets (-5.5)Nuggets won
- Tim Hardaway Jr.: Points O/U 12.5Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.