TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Nuggets (-3.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Nuggetsof Nuggets, Lakers
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$9,737

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,737 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe7ca…a175backed Nuggets52c2,000$1,040 inWon+$959.9882442.2%348 W · 476 L-3.7wins0.00per pick43cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Lakers50c1,704$852 inLost-$8526,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Lakers48c1,590$763 inLost-$763.324,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x64db…325bbacked Lakers50c800$400 inLost-$4001,25948.7%613 W · 646 L+1.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1b4d…e246backed Nuggets50c785$393 inWon+$392.529650.3%149 W · 147 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfab8…a7c8backed Nuggets52c442.67$230 inWon+$212.48333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-35.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Nuggets50c440.28$220 inWon+$220.143,28549.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L+5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb64…5e23backed Nuggets62c399.99$248 inWon+$15226530.9%82 W · 183 L+0.8wins0.00per pick31cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x682f…3265backed Nuggets54c278.5$150 inWon+$128.51,38954.9%762 W · 627 L+16.7wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b46…684dbacked Lakers38c196.48$75 inLost-$74.661,64547.5%782 W · 863 L+40.9wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Nuggets52c179.41$93 inWon+$86.759,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Lakers44c152.33$67 inLost-$66.581,27138.3%487 W · 784 L-13.4wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5fd9…3dadbacked Lakers50c150.44$75 inLost-$75.221643.8%7 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick47cpaid+0.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Lakers46c133.53$61 inLost-$61.422,66648%1,279 W · 1,387 L-8.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d46…b09bbacked Nuggets52c130.06$68 inWon+$62.4315857%90 W · 68 L+5.6wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+8.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Lakers48c127.93$61 inLost-$61.411,13948.3%550 W · 589 L+3.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e98…110bbacked Nuggets63c117.19$74 inWon+$43.3630845.8%141 W · 167 L-1.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-10.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc0c1…18c7backed Nuggets57c80$46 inWon+$34.414042.9%60 W · 80 L-9.1wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-13%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa596…ce69backed Nuggets52c75$39 inWon+$369764.9%63 W · 34 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick61cpaid+7.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe7f2…d2d8backed Nuggets52c65.46$34 inWon+$31.423661.1%22 W · 14 L+3.8wins+0.11per pick51cpaid+25.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Nuggets56c57.54$32 inWon+$25.272,20846.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L+42.7wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Lakers35c53.21$18 inLost-$18.371,63341.2%672 W · 961 L+26.3wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Lakers44c52.54$23 inLost-$23.121,42547.7%680 W · 745 L+13.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf8e2…2cc3backed Lakers69c50$34 inLost-$34.2812960.5%78 W · 51 L+10.5wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+20.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6c54…99bebacked Lakers50c50$25 inLost-$252138.1%8 W · 13 L-2.7wins-0.13per pick51cpaid-27.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Nuggets33c44$15 inWon+$29.485,84446.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Nuggets47c39$18 inWon+$20.673,12044.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L-7.6wins0.00per pick45cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa33c…1b33backed Lakers47c38.91$18 inLost-$18.2962844.9%282 W · 346 L-21.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-8.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xeb76…7ffebacked Nuggets52c33$17 inWon+$15.8446447.8%222 W · 242 L+7.4wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x59ed…dbf2backed Nuggets65c23.08$15 inWon+$8.081100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd0f…48fdbacked Lakers48c22$11 inLost-$10.5623350.6%118 W · 115 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b67…e889backed Nuggets57c21.81$12 inWon+$9.3810951.4%56 W · 53 L+0.2wins0.00per pick51cpaid+5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc88c…f67dbacked Nuggets80c20$16 inWon+$42100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick77cpaid+31%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb55b…be21backed Nuggets78c17$13 inWon+$3.742846.4%13 W · 15 L-4.1wins-0.15per pick61cpaid-27.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 29 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.