NBA · resolved market

Lakers vs. Nuggets: O/U 237.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbb7f89ccd496ca7945a5055e1b57749f2ae8282f566b0b3ca5d14e6eb26a0890

Rebuilt 17 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Underof Over, Under
Resolved: Mar 6, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $34,581

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,581 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x204f…5e14backed Under	54c	7,319$3,917 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,402.51	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc2a4…c6a4backed Over	47c	6,000$2,820 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,819.91	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.15per pick	48cpaid	-33.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1fa3…ab9cbacked Under	75c	2,684$2,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$683.71	172	46.5%80 W · 92 L	-2.9wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	-4.3%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e29…9e66backed Over	49c	1,926$949 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$948.78	502	41.2%207 W · 295 L	-3.8wins	-0.01per pick	42cpaid	-7.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Under	46c	1,165$535 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$629.9	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd6eb…5402backed Over	59c	975.34$575 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$575	111	59.5%66 W · 45 L	+4.3wins	+0.04per pick	56cpaid	+7.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Over	32c	864.15$277 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$276.53	3,342	43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L	+81.2wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xea22…747abacked Over	18c	816.43$144 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$143.6	679	21.4%145 W · 534 L	+32.4wins	+0.05per pick	17cpaid	+33.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8230…5121backed Over	10c	807.54$81 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80.75	208	37.5%78 W · 130 L	+38.2wins	+0.18per pick	19cpaid	+115.2%equal weight	68+0.16 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Over	55c	802$441 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$441.1	2,078	53.6%1,113 W · 965 L	+44.6wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Over	49c	594.73$289 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$289.08	2,949	51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L	+119.4wins	+0.04per pick	47cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7669…f58cbacked Over	37c	578$214 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$213.86	520	52.3%272 W · 248 L	+31.4wins	+0.06per pick	46cpaid	+19%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5d9e…e0e3backed Under	45c	555.55$250 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$305.55	545	49.5%270 W · 275 L	-5.3wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-9.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa0dc…586cbacked Over	56c	543.42$302 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$302	288	38.2%110 W · 178 L	-17.6wins	-0.06per pick	44cpaid	-14.9%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6d49…e00abacked Over	42c	491.85$208 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$207.8	1,532	42.5%651 W · 881 L	-17.3wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-12.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b46…684dbacked Under	53c	454.81$241 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$213.76	1,645	47.5%782 W · 863 L	+40.9wins	+0.02per pick	45cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5f37…281bbacked Over	46c	434.78$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	73	34.2%25 W · 48 L	-2.5wins	-0.03per pick	38cpaid	-9.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Under	40c	416.84$169 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$248.31	3,902	47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L	-17.9wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Over	46c	282.39$129 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$129.31	2,666	48%1,279 W · 1,387 L	-8.2wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x85b1…4814backed Over	13c	280.82$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.66	20	35%7 W · 13 L	-3.0wins	-0.15per pick	50cpaid	-27.1%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x307d…9163backed Under	63c	262.7$165 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$97.26	273	57.1%156 W · 117 L	+0.9wins	0.00per pick	57cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2a9b…7303backed Over	55c	222.22$122 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$122.22	634	47.5%301 W · 333 L	-19.8wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-7.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe6a5…e95dbacked Over	50c	200$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	312	49.4%154 W · 158 L	-3.8wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3d8e…7fe3backed Under	50c	200$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$100	45	80%36 W · 9 L	+12.1wins	+0.27per pick	53cpaid	+50.8%equal weight	69+0.17 edge/pick
0xfabf…231cbacked Over	47c	154.41$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.12	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	-1.2wins	-0.13per pick	46cpaid	-19%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Under	46c	150.75$69 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$81.51	1,425	47.7%680 W · 745 L	+13.9wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xabfb…12e5backed Over	27c	143.44$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.11	118	26.3%31 W · 87 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	27cpaid	-17.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3dcf…4eb4backed Over	55c	134.55$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74	874	53.3%466 W · 408 L	+19.7wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e98…110bbacked Over	55c	133.93$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.66	308	45.8%141 W · 167 L	-1.2wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-10.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x391d…def1backed Under	42c	126.44$53 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$73.65	288	42.7%123 W · 165 L	+6.6wins	+0.02per pick	40cpaid	-7.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee60…6902backed Under	52c	125.19$65 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$59.95	376	65.4%246 W · 130 L	+62.0wins	+0.16per pick	49cpaid	+31.5%equal weight	67+0.15 edge/pick
0xb870…5a8abacked Over	41c	122.12$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.07	918	46.2%424 W · 494 L	+1.0wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Under	52c	120.75$63 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$58.04	3,341	53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L	+108.9wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Over	49c	118.16$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.9	5,844	46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L	+32.7wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2599…9218backed Under	44c	113.94$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$63.94	117	61.5%72 W · 45 L	+2.2wins	+0.02per pick	60cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x066f…b576backed Under	45c	111.13$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$61.24	1,634	48.1%786 W · 848 L	+5.9wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under	41c	110.22$45 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$64.95	4,682	49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L	+27.2wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa5ab…c3acbacked Under	46c	108.7$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$58.7	159	53.5%85 W · 74 L	+4.3wins	+0.03per pick	51cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x29de…072cbacked Over	47c	107.51$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	168	62.5%105 W · 63 L	+2.6wins	+0.02per pick	61cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Over	57c	105.26$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	2,602	50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L	-20.7wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad31…1c1dbacked Over	51c	102.47$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.26	43	41.9%18 W · 25 L	-3.6wins	-0.08per pick	50cpaid	-17.1%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x41a3…017dbacked Over	49c	100.82$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.4	329	52.9%174 W · 155 L	-11.7wins	-0.04per pick	56cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf9a5…9445backed Over	50c	100$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	45	40%18 W · 27 L	-1.9wins	-0.04per pick	44cpaid	-2.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd6bd…09c9backed Under	43c	100$43 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$57	18	44.4%8 W · 10 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2720…7a59backed Over	49c	100$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-2.4wins	-0.30per pick	43cpaid	-70.8%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7f39…28dabacked Over	51c	97$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.09	113	47.8%54 W · 59 L	-5.0wins	-0.04per pick	52cpaid	-9.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Under	49c	85.74$42 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$43.52	4,878	48%2,341 W · 2,537 L	+61.9wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb0b5…e373backed Over	59c	84.37$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	123	59.3%73 W · 50 L	-5.4wins	-0.04per pick	64cpaid	-7.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xce9d…3c05backed Under	64c	77.68$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27.68	954	52.3%499 W · 455 L	-17.4wins	-0.02per pick	54cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5961…56dbbacked Over	48c	74.56$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.79	378	48.9%185 W · 193 L	+4.7wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+3.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe4d8…19c5backed Over	48c	72.92$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	243	58%141 W · 102 L	-4.4wins	-0.02per pick	60cpaid	-5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b78…c6b5backed Under	52c	72.12$37 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$34.93	1,197	48.9%585 W · 612 L	-14.8wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0e01…7ef0backed Over	57c	69.02$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.34	203	50.2%102 W · 101 L	+2.5wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+4.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9cd7…ec7cbacked Over	58c	68.97$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	53	49.1%26 W · 27 L	-4.9wins	-0.09per pick	58cpaid	-13.3%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe980…57c9backed Over	31c	55$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.85	14	35.7%5 W · 9 L	-1.0wins	-0.07per pick	43cpaid	-16.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x93e3…e590backed Over	44c	52.51$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.1	64	37.5%24 W · 40 L	-4.3wins	-0.07per pick	44cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7f2d…fbf5backed Over	37c	52.07$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.47	903	57%515 W · 388 L	+40.0wins	+0.04per pick	53cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xad57…b8d3backed Under	53c	51.25$27 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.09	65	53.8%35 W · 30 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	-2%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x9952…ceb2backed Under	53c	51.25$27 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.09	71	59.2%42 W · 29 L	+5.2wins	+0.07per pick	52cpaid	+10.1%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Over	35c	50.41$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.62	656	30.2%198 W · 458 L	-86.7wins	-0.13per pick	43cpaid	-42.7%equal weight	36-0.13 edge/pick
0xb6e7…884cbacked Over	58c	49.34$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.62	163	38.7%63 W · 100 L	-11.4wins	-0.07per pick	46cpaid	-8.4%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x29aa…e4eabacked Over	45c	48.8$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.19	21	19%4 W · 17 L	-5.5wins	-0.26per pick	45cpaid	-59.4%equal weight	37-0.12 edge/pick
0x82ca…3135backed Under	48c	47.03$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.54	143	59.4%85 W · 58 L	+3.0wins	+0.02per pick	57cpaid	+2.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeb76…7ffebacked Under	45c	47$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.85	464	47.8%222 W · 242 L	+7.4wins	+0.02per pick	46cpaid	+2.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x197a…d3d1backed Over	45c	44.6$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	82	57.3%47 W · 35 L	+7.3wins	+0.09per pick	48cpaid	+12.9%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe3ca…5ed4backed Over	48c	41.67$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	33	54.5%18 W · 15 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	54cpaid	-12.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Under	49c	40.7$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.91	2,208	46.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L	+42.7wins	+0.02per pick	45cpaid	+2.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb6fc…b24ebacked Over	45c	39.71$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.87	454	45.4%206 W · 248 L	-6.2wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3abf…b143backed Under	53c	36.82$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.25	877	44.7%392 W · 485 L	-1.7wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-13.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x11a7…2c03backed Under	44c	35.71$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20	144	56.3%81 W · 63 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	57cpaid	-8.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x39c6…0ac1backed Under	46c	35.64$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.25	542	46.7%253 W · 289 L	-7.2wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Under	45c	32.12$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.67	2,902	38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L	-51.9wins	-0.02per pick	40cpaid	-5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe825…39b7backed Over	48c	30.99$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.88	29	27.6%8 W · 21 L	-5.4wins	-0.19per pick	46cpaid	-40%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0xfda1…454fbacked Over	44c	30.9$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.59	21	23.8%5 W · 16 L	-4.5wins	-0.22per pick	45cpaid	-49.5%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0xde3f…f730backed Under	55c	29.24$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.06	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.9wins	+0.30per pick	36cpaid	+29.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x16e9…aeefbacked Under	53c	28.38$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.34	35	60%21 W · 14 L	+1.9wins	+0.05per pick	55cpaid	+8.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbf6c…bf5abacked Over	58c	23.52$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.62	40	57.5%23 W · 17 L	+1.4wins	+0.04per pick	54cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa1fb…84abbacked Under	53c	20.94$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.84	4	100%4 W · 0 L	+1.6wins	+0.39per pick	61cpaid	+69%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x178c…1798backed Over	61c	16.28$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-1.7wins	-0.42per pick	42cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9db2…cc8cbacked Under	80c	12.5$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2.5	171	53.8%92 W · 79 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	54cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 29 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Lakers vs. Nuggets: O/U 237.5this page
1H Spread: Nuggets (-2.5)Nuggets won
Austin Reaves: Points O/U 18.5No won
Cameron Johnson: Points O/U 11.5No won
Cameron Johnson: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
Christian Braun: Points O/U 12.5Yes won
Jamal Murray: Assists O/U 6.5Yes won
Jamal Murray: Assists O/U 7.5No won
Jamal Murray: Rebounds O/U 3.5Yes won
Lakers vs. NuggetsNuggets won
Lakers vs. Nuggets: 1H MoneylineNuggets won
Lakers vs. Nuggets: 1H O/U 123.5Under won
Lakers vs. Nuggets: O/U 238.5Under won
Lakers vs. Nuggets: O/U 239.5Under won
Lakers vs. Nuggets: O/U 240.5Under won
Lakers vs. Nuggets: O/U 241.5Under won
LeBron James: Assists O/U 6.5Yes won
LeBron James: Points O/U 19.5No won
LeBron James: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
Luka Dončić: Rebounds O/U 7.5Yes won
Luke Kennard: Points O/U 8.5No won
Nikola Jokić: Assists O/U 10.5Yes won
Nikola Jokić: Assists O/U 9.5Yes won
Nikola Jokić: Points O/U 29.5No won
Nikola Jokić: Rebounds O/U 13.5No won
Spread: Nuggets (-3.5)Nuggets won
Spread: Nuggets (-4.5)Nuggets won
Spread: Nuggets (-5.5)Nuggets won
Tim Hardaway Jr.: Points O/U 12.5Yes won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Lakers vs. Nuggets: O/U 237.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event