NBA · resolved market
Lakers vs. Nuggets: O/U 238.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x46f4fe377af8cbd3773f40bb32c92250397d7d2855ca121b5e838344ca4c23e2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,500
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,500 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe5ef…9e7abacked Under | 45c | 5,060$2,277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,783.04 | 252 | 48.4%122 W · 130 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 54c | 4,264$2,320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,320.26 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Over | 52c | 1,923$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.96 | 2,753 | 50.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L | +47.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea22…747abacked Over | 7c | 1,441$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.18 | 679 | 21.4%145 W · 534 L | +32.4wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39c6…0ac1backed Under | 46c | 1,404$646 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$758.16 | 542 | 46.7%253 W · 289 L | -7.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…6a15backed Over | 56c | 979$548 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$548.24 | 97 | 42.3%41 W · 56 L | -10.0wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -19%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Over | 52c | 833$433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$433.16 | 2,078 | 53.6%1,113 W · 965 L | +44.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04d2…4c2cbacked Under | 47c | 787.23$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$417.23 | 174 | 54%94 W · 80 L | +6.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 55c | 736.87$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405.28 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 45c | 590.32$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.68 | 1,562 | 47.4%741 W · 821 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dd0…ee95backed Under | 47c | 531.91$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.91 | 61 | 37.7%23 W · 38 L | -5.3wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Over | 38c | 438.56$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.72 | 288 | 42.7%123 W · 165 L | +6.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd23…e31fbacked Under | 46c | 388$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.52 | 473 | 54.8%259 W · 214 L | +14.2wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44f0…432cbacked Under | 46c | 359.5$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.13 | 401 | 46.9%188 W · 213 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 46c | 355.73$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.03 | 2,949 | 51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L | +119.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c39…20eebacked Under | 45c | 221.5$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.83 | 358 | 43.6%156 W · 202 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…c6b5backed Over | 57c | 210.01$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.18 | 1,197 | 48.9%585 W · 612 L | -14.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b46…684dbacked Under | 55c | 206.54$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.42 | 1,645 | 47.5%782 W · 863 L | +40.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 54c | 203.06$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.35 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Over | 39c | 200.75$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.67 | 1,532 | 42.5%651 W · 881 L | -17.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea78…a74ebacked Under | 45c | 156$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.8 | 565 | 47.8%270 W · 295 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Over | 51c | 114.27$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.23 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Over | 56c | 108.1$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.54 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 47c | 99$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.47 | 1,634 | 48.1%786 W · 848 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Over | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 970 | 49.5%480 W · 490 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 43c | 94.49$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.86 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Over | 43c | 90.45$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.67 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Under | 61c | 81.75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.75 | 954 | 52.3%499 W · 455 L | -17.4wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f39…28dabacked Under | 55c | 81.13$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.51 | 113 | 47.8%54 W · 59 L | -5.0wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7509…d031backed Over | 54c | 80$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.4 | 208 | 47.1%98 W · 110 L | -9.5wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6912…2aabbacked Over | 56c | 79.82$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 77 | 44.2%34 W · 43 L | -5.8wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x33c9…5124backed Over | 54c | 74.07$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 503 | 51.5%259 W · 244 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7895…896cbacked Over | 45c | 67.16$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe276…a85bbacked Under | 46c | 66.64$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.99 | 125 | 52%65 W · 60 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Over | 56c | 65.89$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.9 | 454 | 45.4%206 W · 248 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Under | 46c | 52.28$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.23 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93e3…e590backed Over | 42c | 52.22$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.93 | 64 | 37.5%24 W · 40 L | -4.3wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3729…d2e5backed Under | 45c | 44.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.02 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b41…01c7backed Under | 46c | 43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.22 | 538 | 39.4%212 W · 326 L | -26.8wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9b…7303backed Over | 52c | 41.16$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 634 | 47.5%301 W · 333 L | -19.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb870…5a8abacked Under | 48c | 40.83$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.23 | 918 | 46.2%424 W · 494 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d08…2142backed Under | 62c | 40.32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.32 | 658 | 72.8%479 W · 179 L | +46.1wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…110bbacked Under | 45c | 39.6$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.78 | 308 | 45.8%141 W · 167 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e01…7ef0backed Over | 54c | 32.72$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.67 | 203 | 50.2%102 W · 101 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Under | 48c | 32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.64 | 464 | 47.8%222 W · 242 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Over | 39c | 31.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 118 | 26.3%31 W · 87 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeef0…db6fbacked Under | 45c | 31.11$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.24 | 45 | 33.3%15 W · 30 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Under | 46c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.1 | 591 | 41.8%247 W · 344 L | -26.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b3a…1440backed Over | 55c | 23.13$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 65 | 41.5%27 W · 38 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43be…119fbacked Over | 47c | 22.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde3f…f730backed Under | 48c | 21.23$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.04 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 36cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa488…91c3backed Under | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | -4.2wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2482…a721backed Over | 57c | 17.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 76 | 46.1%35 W · 41 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 29 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Lakers vs. Nuggets: O/U 238.5this page
- 1H Spread: Nuggets (-2.5)Nuggets won
- Austin Reaves: Points O/U 18.5No won
- Cameron Johnson: Points O/U 11.5No won
- Cameron Johnson: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Christian Braun: Points O/U 12.5Yes won
- Jamal Murray: Assists O/U 6.5Yes won
- Jamal Murray: Assists O/U 7.5No won
- Jamal Murray: Rebounds O/U 3.5Yes won
- Lakers vs. NuggetsNuggets won
- Lakers vs. Nuggets: 1H MoneylineNuggets won
- Lakers vs. Nuggets: 1H O/U 123.5Under won
- Lakers vs. Nuggets: O/U 237.5Under won
- Lakers vs. Nuggets: O/U 239.5Under won
- Lakers vs. Nuggets: O/U 240.5Under won
- Lakers vs. Nuggets: O/U 241.5Under won
- LeBron James: Assists O/U 6.5Yes won
- LeBron James: Points O/U 19.5No won
- LeBron James: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
- Luka Dončić: Rebounds O/U 7.5Yes won
- Luke Kennard: Points O/U 8.5No won
- Nikola Jokić: Assists O/U 10.5Yes won
- Nikola Jokić: Assists O/U 9.5Yes won
- Nikola Jokić: Points O/U 29.5No won
- Nikola Jokić: Rebounds O/U 13.5No won
- Spread: Nuggets (-3.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Nuggets (-4.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Nuggets (-5.5)Nuggets won
- Tim Hardaway Jr.: Points O/U 12.5Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.