TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Mavericks vs. Pelicans: 1H O/U 123.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,512
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,839

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,512 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xcd92…50a5backed Under51c610.81$312 inWon+$299.31668.8%11 W · 5 L+2.9wins+0.18per pick51cpaid+36.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8fd4…676ebacked Over49c532.83$261 inLost-$261.091464.3%9 W · 5 L+1.6wins+0.11per pick53cpaid+20.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9013…e7e0backed Over51c196.92$100 inLost-$10040344.4%179 W · 224 L-23.9wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-13.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xeda0…7dffbacked Under49c140.92$69 inWon+$71.8728537.9%108 W · 177 L-4.5wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-12.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9794…32c9backed Over49c77.98$38 inLost-$38.212050%10 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a32…0086backed Over48c71.54$34 inLost-$34.341,33251.2%682 W · 650 L+7.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5628…abbcbacked Under52c40$21 inWon+$19.287049.3%429 W · 441 L+1.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a76…b30fbacked Over55c36.07$20 inLost-$2021642.1%91 W · 125 L-15.6wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-15.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under50c30$15 inWon+$151,78653.2%950 W · 836 L+52.7wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked Under44c27.66$12 inWon+$15.4926353.6%141 W · 122 L+10.7wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+3.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under50c26$13 inWon+$13.134,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb21b…c396backed Under52c20$10 inWon+$9.6520%1 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.33per pick53cpaid-61.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 31 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.