NBA · resolved market
Dejounte Murray: Points O/U 18.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2bf290508e05b802ad9d6c645d51990d5c0ee36e0d4627e0a14f9f293483e68b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,924
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,924 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4dd1…6a87backed Yes | 1c | 2,500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 115 | 65.2%75 W · 40 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b9…4031backed Yes | 32c | 630.19$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c66…0a4fbacked Yes | 30c | 570.27$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.18 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -3.5wins | -0.18per pick | 33cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x985f…7a5bbacked Yes | 27c | 518.79$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.88 | 45 | 60%27 W · 18 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x339a…1eaebacked No | 73c | 501.25$366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.63 | 1,759 | 61.7%1,085 W · 674 L | +127.5wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd529…f0d4backed No | 68c | 464.07$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.5 | 1,085 | 63.6%690 W · 395 L | +86.7wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +13%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd9…bfe8backed No | 71c | 399.99$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116 | 657 | 62.3%409 W · 248 L | +27.9wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 13c | 355$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.15 | 285 | 37.9%108 W · 177 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed No | 69c | 276.29$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.65 | 908 | 63.9%580 W · 328 L | +80.6wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2dbd…dacdbacked Yes | 25c | 221.24$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked No | 71c | 220$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.88 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x033a…ef94backed Yes | 27c | 219.96$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d9…df36backed Yes | 27c | 168.36$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.97 | 400 | 53.5%214 W · 186 L | +14.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 73c | 164.99$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.99 | 970 | 49.5%480 W · 490 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b4…9dc2backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 187 | 42.8%80 W · 107 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…f9d1backed No | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 952 | 60.2%573 W · 379 L | +37.0wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6c2…8f23backed Yes | 30c | 96.29$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad22…014abacked No | 70c | 85$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 270 | 74.1%200 W · 70 L | +30.5wins | +0.11per pick | 63cpaid | +18%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked No | 74c | 78.91$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.52 | 920 | 58%534 W · 386 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd441…87febacked Yes | 31c | 63.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.77 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea04…c30abacked Yes | 26c | 61.54$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5b…b58bbacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 76 | 40.8%31 W · 45 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa528…2499backed No | 74c | 46.09$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.98 | 831 | 58.1%483 W · 348 L | +18.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab0d…6ddfbacked Yes | 34c | 44.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed No | 76c | 43.05$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.53 | 969 | 56.3%546 W · 423 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 29c | 39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 1,132 | 17%192 W · 940 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed No | 69c | 38.23$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 1,433 | 47.2%676 W · 757 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 1,786 | 53.2%950 W · 836 L | +52.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa427…f87fbacked No | 69c | 27.63$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 462 | 55.6%257 W · 205 L | +22.8wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf93e…96eabacked No | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 129 | 49.6%64 W · 65 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 31 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dejounte Murray: Points O/U 18.5this page
- Cooper Flagg: Assists O/U 4.5Yes won
- Cooper Flagg: Assists O/U 5.5Yes won
- Cooper Flagg: Rebounds O/U 6.5Yes won
- Daniel Gafford: Points O/U 9.5No won
- Daniel Gafford: Rebounds O/U 7.5No won
- Dejounte Murray: Assists O/U 6.5No won
- Dejounte Murray: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
- Herbert Jones: Assists O/U 3.5Yes won
- Mavericks vs. PelicansPelicans won
- Mavericks vs. Pelicans: 1H MoneylinePelicans won
- Mavericks vs. Pelicans: 1H O/U 123.5Under won
- Mavericks vs. Pelicans: O/U 237.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Pelicans: O/U 238.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Pelicans: O/U 239.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Pelicans: O/U 240.5Under won
- Mavericks vs. Pelicans: O/U 241.5Under won
- Max Christie: Points O/U 12.5No won
- Max Christie: Rebounds O/U 2.5Yes won
- Naji Marshall: Assists O/U 3.5Yes won
- Naji Marshall: Rebounds O/U 4.5Yes won
- P.J. Washington: Points O/U 12.5Yes won
- P.J. Washington: Rebounds O/U 5.5Yes won
- Saddiq Bey: Assists O/U 2.5Yes won
- Saddiq Bey: Rebounds O/U 5.5Yes won
- Spread: Pelicans (-7.5)Pelicans won
- Spread: Pelicans (-8.5)Pelicans won
- Spread: Pelicans (-9.5)Pelicans won
- Trey Murphy III: Assists O/U 4.5Yes won
- Trey Murphy III: Points O/U 23.5No won
- Zion Williamson: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.