TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Pelicans (-8.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Pelicansof Pelicans, Mavericks
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,054,913

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,054,913 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 307 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6a72…33eebacked Pelicans52c700,000$364,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$336,000.0126253.8%141 W · 121 L+10.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+6.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbddf…c684backed Mavericks48c550,603$264,147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$264,146.7772648.3%351 W · 375 L+30.5wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8a3a…eb9abacked Pelicans51c82,353$42,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40,352.9411457.9%66 W · 48 L+6.7wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+10.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfbf3…b218backed Mavericks48c75,863$36,414 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36,414.2429245.5%133 W · 159 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Mavericks48c62,332$29,971 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29,970.944,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f03…64d6backed Pelicans51c56,221$28,692 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27,529.61,04651.1%534 W · 512 L-0.7wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93ab…9723backed Mavericks49c52,633$25,712 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25,711.960351.4%310 W · 293 L+16.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x12ec…41aebacked Mavericks48c40,990$19,675 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,675.0916039.4%63 W · 97 L-5.8wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x72b4…7d67backed Mavericks49c23,681$11,604 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,603.6930845.8%141 W · 167 L-12.8wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-9.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x84db…aeebbacked Mavericks49c20,408$10,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,999.911,37450.1%689 W · 685 L+34.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x412f…30fabacked Mavericks48c15,600$7,488 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,48835744.3%158 W · 199 L+1.5wins0.00per pick44cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x39d3…9ef0backed Mavericks49c15,296$7,495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,495.0431644.6%141 W · 175 L-7.1wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-5.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc6b1…78fdbacked Mavericks49c13,854$6,788 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,788.466651.5%34 W · 32 L+6.0wins+0.09per pick42cpaid+24.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Pelicans51c12,912$6,549 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,362.611,91549.3%944 W · 971 L+19.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4435…0840backed Mavericks49c10,204$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,00026648.5%129 W · 137 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Pelicans51c10,000$5,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,9002,15351.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L+76.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8cdc…b83fbacked Mavericks49c8,006$3,923 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,92320948.8%102 W · 107 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Pelicans51c6,790$3,488 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,301.959,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Pelicans51c5,872$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,871.871,91054.3%1,038 W · 872 L+25.2wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ade…f5b0backed Pelicans53c5,000$2,650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,3501,55652.8%822 W · 734 L+40.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+10.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x69ff…0d1dbacked Pelicans52c4,876$2,536 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,340.6833146.2%153 W · 178 L-7.3wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-7.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe7ca…a175backed Pelicans52c4,500$2,340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,16082442.2%348 W · 476 L-3.7wins0.00per pick43cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Pelicans51c4,193$2,146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,047.184,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Mavericks48c4,187$2,015 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,014.736,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbe02…5fb3backed Pelicans52c4,155$2,161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,994.2542352.5%222 W · 201 L+5.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb5e9…4044backed Mavericks48c4,100$1,968 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,967.879053.3%48 W · 42 L+3.3wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-0.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7234…1d85backed Pelicans52c4,000$2,080 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,92015844.9%71 W · 87 L-8.5wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-11.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Pelicans55c3,836$2,113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,723.613,66841.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L-70.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked Pelicans51c3,630$1,852 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,778.9279549.7%395 W · 400 L-0.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed Mavericks49c3,169$1,564 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,563.61,19448.8%583 W · 611 L-22.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa2e0…d084backed Mavericks48c3,125$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50022447.8%107 W · 117 L-5.7wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-9.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Pelicans52c3,089$1,606 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,482.721,90854.5%1,040 W · 868 L+53.7wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xabf5…cfebbacked Pelicans52c3,000$1,560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,440.0448054.2%260 W · 220 L+14.0wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf059…6dd9backed Mavericks49c2,980$1,460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,46049246.3%228 W · 264 L-15.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-6.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xce39…04d6backed Mavericks48c2,974$1,427 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,427.437842.9%162 W · 216 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-1.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Mavericks49c2,679$1,313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,312.754,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Pelicans53c2,673$1,405 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,267.822,34648.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L-14.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Mavericks42c2,525$1,057 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,057.238,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x55fb…fe7bbacked Mavericks29c2,400$696 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69610342.7%44 W · 59 L+4.0wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+14.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc51a…a0d9backed Mavericks49c2,245$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,100.0527455.5%152 W · 122 L+15.2wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+9.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc974…b33bbacked Mavericks49c2,203$1,080 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,079.6224942.2%105 W · 144 L-9.6wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-7.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x44a1…bd21backed Mavericks48c2,083$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00026637.2%99 W · 167 L-10.5wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-25.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2e00…eb46backed Mavericks48c2,016$968 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$967.5336351.2%186 W · 177 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9592…a85bbacked Pelicans57c2,013$1,147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$866.1728245.4%128 W · 154 L+7.8wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Mavericks49c2,000$980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9801,02450.8%520 W · 504 L+18.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b4d…ae93backed Pelicans53c2,000$1,060 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9402638.5%10 W · 16 L-1.5wins-0.06per pick44cpaid+34.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf05d…ac5ebacked Mavericks49c2,000$980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98025155%138 W · 113 L+9.4wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x478e…0c83backed Mavericks49c2,000$980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98019346.1%89 W · 104 L-9.6wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-10.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7b47…d615backed Mavericks48c2,000$960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$959.9657950.1%290 W · 289 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x41e0…a8e0backed Pelicans52c1,988$1,034 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$954.44050%20 W · 20 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f12…3e35backed Mavericks48c1,950$936 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9365446.3%25 W · 29 L-0.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-12.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd0e7…b14fbacked Mavericks49c1,903$936 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$935.8934851.7%180 W · 168 L+1.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x57b1…4b99backed Pelicans53c1,887$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$886.810847.2%51 W · 57 L-3.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfedd…32c4backed Mavericks50c1,770$885 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8859655.2%53 W · 43 L+4.8wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+10.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Pelicans71c1,744$1,238 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$505.663,34153.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L+108.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8753…85adbacked Pelicans52c1,667$867 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$800.1664651.7%334 W · 312 L-14.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Mavericks48c1,659$797 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$797.112,16940.8%885 W · 1,284 L-8.7wins0.00per pick41cpaid-14.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe216…7448backed Pelicans52c1,635$850 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$784.6259140.8%241 W · 350 L-7.7wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Mavericks22c1,584$346 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$345.552,94951.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L+119.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Pelicans50c1,558$779 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$779.012,50748.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L+19.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3ede…6c27backed Mavericks48c1,461$698 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$698.2245151.4%232 W · 219 L+10.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe975…9d22backed Pelicans52c1,438$741 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$697.1118055%99 W · 81 L+7.8wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+0.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Pelicans52c1,404$730 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$673.922,07853.6%1,113 W · 965 L+44.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf498…3d66backed Pelicans53c1,393$732 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$661.1711855.1%65 W · 53 L+4.3wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+3.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9eab…7e13backed Pelicans52c1,338$696 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$642.4614152.5%74 W · 67 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7f52…c525backed Pelicans60c1,338$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$537.6714152.5%74 W · 67 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Pelicans51c1,209$614 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$594.883,28549.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L+5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6292…d254backed Pelicans51c1,176$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$576.4720846.6%97 W · 111 L-9.6wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-8.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbc1b…3b5bbacked Pelicans53c1,132$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$532.0824946.6%116 W · 133 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Mavericks48c1,127$542 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$542.054,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x973b…a912backed Pelicans52c1,100$572 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5285947.5%28 W · 31 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-11.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xabde…d41fbacked Mavericks50c1,052$525 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$524.7341947.7%200 W · 219 L-4.1wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb85…8464backed Mavericks50c1,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50040041.5%166 W · 234 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd9c0…4583backed Pelicans52c1,000$520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48013857.2%79 W · 59 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x96bc…7fb4backed Mavericks47c999.99$470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47023644.1%104 W · 132 L-0.3wins0.00per pick44cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x889c…e375backed Pelicans53c943.4$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$443.450954.8%279 W · 230 L+14.8wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x387f…316abacked Pelicans52c885.46$460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$425.021968.4%13 W · 6 L+2.8wins+0.15per pick54cpaid+24.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3542…24f0backed Mavericks48c885.42$425 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4253847.4%18 W · 20 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe414…c341backed Mavericks49c877.55$430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43081349.4%402 W · 411 L+5.5wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe071…2d1abacked Pelicans53c800$424 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37648957.5%281 W · 208 L+2.4wins0.00per pick57cpaid+2.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xcaf5…815bbacked Pelicans52c728.54$379 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$349.5415453.2%82 W · 72 L+4.1wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf10…691bbacked Pelicans52c721.25$377 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$344.2513751.1%70 W · 67 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbeef…5667backed Pelicans52c701.52$366 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$335.5215253.3%81 W · 71 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x53cd…f23ebacked Pelicans53c700$371 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$329.2543544.6%194 W · 241 L-9.4wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-6.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd155…8250backed Pelicans52c684.04$356 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$328.3448852%254 W · 234 L+5.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x666f…9860backed Pelicans53c681.15$361 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$320.226055%33 W · 27 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick51cpaid-0.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5dd8…f9e3backed Pelicans53c666.26$353 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$313.146258.1%36 W · 26 L+2.8wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+7.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7f83…a491backed Mavericks17c656.99$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.2612947.3%61 W · 68 L+12.3wins+0.10per pick38cpaid+19.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xde79…2a1bbacked Mavericks48c625$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30017349.7%86 W · 87 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a51…b2b6backed Mavericks23c615.22$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.7589853.1%477 W · 421 L+21.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+2.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe63d…0545backed Pelicans53c606.63$321 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$285.144560%27 W · 18 L+2.6wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+9.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Mavericks48c577.16$277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$277.041,56247.4%741 W · 821 L-6.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe922…39b3backed Pelicans53c566$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$266.0223553.6%126 W · 109 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x960e…77d6backed Pelicans52c528.85$275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$253.853953.8%21 W · 18 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-7.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9510…16dfbacked Mavericks50c513.69$256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256.1230453.3%162 W · 142 L+8.6wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Mavericks45c513.11$229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229.51,19032%381 W · 809 L-58.1wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-34.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd11a…09eebacked Pelicans52c483.78$253 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$230.7810656.6%60 W · 46 L+6.3wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+6.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc991…abd4backed Mavericks50c476.63$238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$237.6448751.7%252 W · 235 L-1.8wins0.00per pick52cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeddf…a953backed Pelicans52c469.04$244 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225.1436143.5%157 W · 204 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Pelicans69c426.57$296 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.441,78653.2%950 W · 836 L+52.7wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 31 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.