TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Mavericks vs. Pelicans: O/U 241.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$5,875

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,875 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xee61…debfbacked Under47c2,406$1,136 inWon+$1,270.239,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xccf1…25a0backed Over58c943.82$547 inLost-$547.421,52249.6%755 W · 767 L+27.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Over49c812.59$398 inLost-$398.174,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0ac…4ec7backed Under14c644.1$89 inWon+$554.6752230.3%158 W · 364 L+20.4wins+0.04per pick26cpaid+10.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1c0d…2044backed Over49c606.12$297 inLost-$2973548.6%17 W · 18 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+12.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Over43c380.83$164 inLost-$163.912,40043.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L-82.9wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-9.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd473…3febbacked Under52c329.98$172 inWon+$158.3924955.8%139 W · 110 L+0.7wins0.00per pick56cpaid+1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7669…f58cbacked Under57c307.18$175 inWon+$132.0952052.3%272 W · 248 L+31.4wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+19%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8013…5b52backed Under33c251.26$83 inWon+$168.3417554.9%96 W · 79 L+15.0wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+31.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x913b…0852backed Over49c125.17$61 inLost-$60.7542153%223 W · 198 L+23.3wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+8.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Under57c121.72$69 inWon+$52.573,55146.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L+1.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Over47c86.82$41 inLost-$40.994,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2757…55f0backed Under35c79.99$28 inWon+$51.991758.8%10 W · 7 L+1.2wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+18.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6d49…e00abacked Over40c76.53$31 inLost-$30.941,53242.5%651 W · 881 L-17.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-12.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0fb2…eb78backed Over49c71$35 inLost-$34.793354.5%18 W · 15 L+2.8wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+14.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over46c71$33 inLost-$32.664,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd425…603ebacked Over41c60.15$25 inLost-$24.835733.3%19 W · 38 L-5.4wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-25%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xe6c9…4145backed Over40c42.66$17 inLost-$17.063240.6%13 W · 19 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Under33c40$13 inWon+$26.82,20846.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L+42.7wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe824…65b4backed Under53c35.9$19 inWon+$16.8752552%273 W · 252 L+10.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b78…c6b5backed Under50c27.64$14 inWon+$13.791,19748.9%585 W · 612 L-14.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Over48c24.57$12 inLost-$11.771,91549.3%944 W · 971 L+19.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 31 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.