NBA · resolved market
Mavericks vs. Pelicans: O/U 237.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x342b52a3319213a33a867888b42b0428bb9df902c4ebfd903b93f4cfe0830324
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $80,083
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $80,083 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 1c | 48,388$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.43 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 47c | 4,668$2,197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,196.73 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Over | 54c | 2,199$1,195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,004.28 | 1,915 | 49.3%944 W · 971 L | +19.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa3…ab9cbacked Under | 48c | 2,099$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 172 | 46.5%80 W · 92 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 55c | 2,021$1,105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$915.65 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 51c | 2,019$1,026 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$992.45 | 2,630 | 36.7%966 W · 1,664 L | -119.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 49c | 1,290$637 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$636.61 | 2,468 | 50.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Over | 52c | 725$378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$347.42 | 2,169 | 40.8%885 W · 1,284 L | -8.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Under | 48c | 646.11$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.11 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 50c | 604$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 46c | 597.23$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.56 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Over | 57c | 525$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.75 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 46c | 484.08$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.3 | 2,400 | 43.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L | -82.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 44c | 396.94$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.42 | 2,949 | 51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L | +119.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9013…e7e0backed Over | 54c | 370.37$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.37 | 403 | 44.4%179 W · 224 L | -23.9wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ae…4df8backed Over | 56c | 362.09$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.32 | 1,044 | 47.5%496 W · 548 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1480…6e8dbacked Under | 44c | 246.31$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.38 | 584 | 50.2%293 W · 291 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Under | 38c | 239.74$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 514 | 38.7%199 W · 315 L | -29.6wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 46c | 228.84$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.03 | 2,208 | 46.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L | +42.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05e0…e2cbbacked Under | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 71 | 53.5%38 W · 33 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f43…c0c2backed Over | 54c | 200$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92 | 234 | 35.9%84 W · 150 L | -9.7wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Over | 61c | 168.47$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.5 | 903 | 57%515 W · 388 L | +40.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x344b…f7fcbacked Over | 56c | 157$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.88 | 469 | 40.3%189 W · 280 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x913b…0852backed Under | 48c | 147.35$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.32 | 421 | 53%223 W · 198 L | +23.3wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked Over | 57c | 140$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.77 | 348 | 51.7%180 W · 168 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa528…2499backed Under | 49c | 137.69$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.53 | 831 | 58.1%483 W · 348 L | +18.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Over | 62c | 134.99$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.29 | 1,151 | 53.7%618 W · 533 L | -41.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked Over | 52c | 134.35$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.49 | 399 | 43.1%172 W · 227 L | -17.1wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb7d…7862backed Under | 44c | 126.53$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.67 | 218 | 43.6%95 W · 123 L | -15.1wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Under | 50c | 111.19$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.82 | 877 | 44.7%392 W · 485 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Under | 10c | 110$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 113 | 54.9%62 W · 51 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24bb…3e49backed Under | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 804 | 40.3%324 W · 480 L | +27.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3fb9…a8b3backed Over | 58c | 97.65$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.65 | 236 | 57.2%135 W · 101 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fea…78b1backed Under | 13c | 85.77$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.29 | 263 | 37.3%98 W · 165 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…c6b5backed Under | 47c | 79.64$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.39 | 1,197 | 48.9%585 W · 612 L | -14.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked Under | 13c | 79.53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 106 | 23.6%25 W · 81 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0307…7ab8backed Over | 65c | 73.14$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.29 | 454 | 52%236 W · 218 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c56…0615backed Over | 60c | 72.64$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.29 | 182 | 42.9%78 W · 104 L | -10.6wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1769…94efbacked Over | 49c | 69.99$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.9 | 109 | 43.1%47 W · 62 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Over | 62c | 69.95$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.73 | 1,384 | 39.4%545 W · 839 L | +4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5767…8cc1backed Under | 44c | 68.18$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,084 | 42.4%460 W · 624 L | -48.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebff…70e5backed Under | 43c | 67.26$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.92 | 655 | 42.9%281 W · 374 L | +17.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8882…c67dbacked Over | 61c | 58.56$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.57 | 52 | 59.6%31 W · 21 L | +4.7wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdff2…3b8bbacked Over | 53c | 54.08$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.42 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dec…60c2backed Over | 52c | 51.46$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.46 | 180 | 52.2%94 W · 86 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Under | 42c | 49.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 693 | 37.8%262 W · 431 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3bfc…8eb3backed Under | 40c | 49.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 139 | 47.5%66 W · 73 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec15…9b0cbacked Over | 57c | 44.23$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.02 | 285 | 36.8%105 W · 180 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 46c | 44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.24 | 5,844 | 46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x849f…0665backed Under | 44c | 43.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 950 | 47.2%448 W · 502 L | -28.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 41c | 40.44$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.66 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Over | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 931 | 45.8%426 W · 505 L | -25.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70fb…d507backed Over | 53c | 36.49$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.15 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf10e…4c13backed Over | 54c | 36.47$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.78 | 209 | 49.3%103 W · 106 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Under | 43c | 27.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Over | 53c | 27.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.05 | 1,532 | 42.5%651 W · 881 L | -17.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb15…f4f8backed Over | 57c | 23.68$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.18 | 82 | 54.9%45 W · 37 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2886…9bb2backed Over | 54c | 22.78$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.48 | 109 | 45%49 W · 60 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Over | 47c | 22$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.66 | 407 | 50.6%206 W · 201 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c1d…1f8fbacked Over | 53c | 21.43$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.04 | 492 | 49.8%245 W · 247 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…61fbbacked Over | 59c | 20.45$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 361 | 54.8%198 W · 163 L | +17.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed Over | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 969 | 56.3%546 W · 423 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 31 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Mavericks vs. Pelicans: O/U 237.5this page
- Cooper Flagg: Assists O/U 4.5Yes won
- Cooper Flagg: Assists O/U 5.5Yes won
- Cooper Flagg: Rebounds O/U 6.5Yes won
- Daniel Gafford: Points O/U 9.5No won
- Daniel Gafford: Rebounds O/U 7.5No won
- Dejounte Murray: Assists O/U 6.5No won
- Dejounte Murray: Points O/U 18.5No won
- Dejounte Murray: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
- Herbert Jones: Assists O/U 3.5Yes won
- Mavericks vs. PelicansPelicans won
- Mavericks vs. Pelicans: 1H MoneylinePelicans won
- Mavericks vs. Pelicans: 1H O/U 123.5Under won
- Mavericks vs. Pelicans: O/U 238.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Pelicans: O/U 239.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Pelicans: O/U 240.5Under won
- Mavericks vs. Pelicans: O/U 241.5Under won
- Max Christie: Points O/U 12.5No won
- Max Christie: Rebounds O/U 2.5Yes won
- Naji Marshall: Assists O/U 3.5Yes won
- Naji Marshall: Rebounds O/U 4.5Yes won
- P.J. Washington: Points O/U 12.5Yes won
- P.J. Washington: Rebounds O/U 5.5Yes won
- Saddiq Bey: Assists O/U 2.5Yes won
- Saddiq Bey: Rebounds O/U 5.5Yes won
- Spread: Pelicans (-7.5)Pelicans won
- Spread: Pelicans (-8.5)Pelicans won
- Spread: Pelicans (-9.5)Pelicans won
- Trey Murphy III: Assists O/U 4.5Yes won
- Trey Murphy III: Points O/U 23.5No won
- Zion Williamson: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.