TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Bucks vs. Bulls: O/U 236.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,936
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$4,153

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,936 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xea22…747abacked Over2c1,500$35 inLost-$3567921.4%145 W · 534 L+32.4wins+0.05per pick17cpaid+33.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x37de…f512backed Over5c499.99$25 inLost-$251,39026%361 W · 1,029 L-5.6wins0.00per pick26cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb580…9b95backed Under59c213.29$125 inWon+$88.0918440.8%75 W · 109 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x13fa…3facbacked Over41c203.39$83 inLost-$83.3917931.8%57 W · 122 L+6.7wins+0.04per pick28cpaid+16.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3fa2…6f8cbacked Under58c138$80 inWon+$57.966953.6%37 W · 32 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+7.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe1d9…a94bbacked Under58c116$67 inWon+$48.726154.1%33 W · 28 L+3.0wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+7.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6f6d…d25abacked Over43c100$43 inLost-$43944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x78f7…2c5dbacked Under57c86.8$49 inWon+$37.3238148.6%185 W · 196 L-15.6wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-9.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Under54c74$40 inWon+$342,60250.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L-20.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d28…7a6dbacked Over43c71.64$31 inLost-$30.5193849.7%466 W · 472 L+36.0wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+10.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7bea…6ce6backed Under58c57$33 inWon+$23.944261.9%26 W · 16 L+5.0wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+26.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5df5…c44cbacked Over44c53.98$24 inLost-$23.5762047.3%293 W · 327 L-7.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Under57c50$29 inWon+$21.53,34153.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L+108.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Under55c45.5$25 inWon+$20.513,66841.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L-70.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7f5f…99d3backed Over42c45$19 inLost-$18.92334.8%8 W · 15 L-3.9wins-0.17per pick52cpaid-32%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x7f33…8f17backed Over42c41$17 inLost-$17.224351.2%22 W · 21 L-0.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb9ab…8137backed Over42c34$14 inLost-$14.281957.9%11 W · 8 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x098e…bf0abacked Under59c33.9$20 inWon+$13.91752.9%9 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick60cpaid-5.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3f4f…b4b3backed Over38c33.87$13 inLost-$12.8723438.9%91 W · 143 L+6.3wins+0.03per pick36cpaid+17.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3dcf…4eb4backed Over45c32.98$15 inLost-$14.8487453.3%466 W · 408 L+19.7wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x70df…bca8backed Under62c32.26$20 inWon+$12.2632750.2%164 W · 163 L-10.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x97de…15eabacked Over42c32$13 inLost-$13.444151.2%21 W · 20 L+0.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid+3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9cf9…142bbacked Over42c28$12 inLost-$11.763246.9%15 W · 17 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-7.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x89fe…4293backed Over42c26$11 inLost-$10.921450%7 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Under57c26$15 inWon+$11.152,09147.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L-56.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.