NBA · resolved market

Bucks vs. Bulls: O/U 234.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe396e8099cfd3939b5cb8f58192a09d19e1ade62d22aa2b8cc3feca88f452c24

Rebuilt 10 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Underof Over, Under
Resolved: Dec 28, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $85,824
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $85,798

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $85,824 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x7f2e…2ad2backed Under	51c	16,800$8,568 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8,232	28	60.7%17 W · 11 L	+3.1wins	+0.11per pick	50cpaid	+22.6%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x71ea…a8eebacked Over	49c	16,800$8,232 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$8,232	23	56.5%13 W · 10 L	+1.5wins	+0.07per pick	50cpaid	+13.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9c51…60bcbacked Under	51c	16,500$8,415 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8,085	22	54.5%12 W · 10 L	+1.0wins	+0.05per pick	50cpaid	+10.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x63e2…bb9bbacked Over	49c	16,500$8,085 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$8,085	25	60%15 W · 10 L	+2.5wins	+0.10per pick	50cpaid	+20.6%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x37f1…d157backed Over	49c	16,500$8,085 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$8,085	19	47.4%9 W · 10 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c41…02e2backed Under	51c	16,500$8,415 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8,085	21	61.9%13 W · 8 L	+2.1wins	+0.10per pick	52cpaid	+21.2%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9ae8…c2a8backed Under	51c	10,144$5,173 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,970.56	240	53.8%129 W · 111 L	+12.5wins	+0.05per pick	49cpaid	+11%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xead0…f3babacked Over	49c	10,000$4,900 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,900	1,124	48.6%546 W · 578 L	+13.9wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over	49c	10,000$4,900 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,899.99	1,820	52.1%948 W · 872 L	+48.5wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+4.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2e00…eb46backed Under	51c	4,362$2,224 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,137.23	363	51.2%186 W · 177 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc94a…9401backed Under	51c	3,797$1,937 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,860.57	403	50.1%202 W · 201 L	-3.6wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x43d4…13a2backed Over	50c	2,868$1,434 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,434.15	127	40.2%51 W · 76 L	-2.4wins	-0.02per pick	42cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under	50c	2,554$1,277 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,276.78	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1041…f452backed Under	51c	2,353$1,200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,152.94	269	49.1%132 W · 137 L	-5.8wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Under	52c	1,673$871 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$801.89	1,910	54.3%1,038 W · 872 L	+25.2wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa965…3565backed Over	45c	1,500$680 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$680	1,911	45.4%868 W · 1,043 L	+22.1wins	+0.01per pick	44cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over	44c	1,179$519 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$518.76	2,736	46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L	-67.4wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xea22…747abacked Over	1c	1,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	679	21.4%145 W · 534 L	+32.4wins	+0.05per pick	17cpaid	+33.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe78e…55f0backed Under	50c	1,000$500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$500	346	45.7%158 W · 188 L	+12.9wins	+0.04per pick	42cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Under	51c	787$399 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$388.5	4,325	47%2,031 W · 2,294 L	-69.5wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5fb1…cc29backed Under	50c	690$345 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$345	23	56.5%13 W · 10 L	+2.0wins	+0.09per pick	48cpaid	+8.3%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd092…342abacked Over	50c	600.72$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	462	58.2%269 W · 193 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	58cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfd3f…44f1backed Under	51c	588.24$300 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$288.24	254	52.8%134 W · 120 L	+3.8wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Over	49c	500$245 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$245	2,796	50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L	+27.9wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x10ba…b202backed Over	49c	500$245 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$245	23	60.9%14 W · 9 L	+2.2wins	+0.09per pick	51cpaid	+21.2%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Over	49c	346.15$170 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$170.16	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb820…cbe7backed Over	49c	227$111 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$111.23	589	51.3%302 W · 287 L	+6.2wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa42a…d91fbacked Under	51c	201.96$103 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$98.96	623	47.5%296 W · 327 L	-17.3wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x84df…e3b8backed Over	49c	190$93 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$93.1	19	63.2%12 W · 7 L	+2.4wins	+0.13per pick	51cpaid	+24.3%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Under	48c	190$91 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$98.8	4,878	48%2,341 W · 2,537 L	+61.9wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x41ce…6509backed Under	55c	181.82$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$81.82	280	46.8%131 W · 149 L	-6.4wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-7.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Over	49c	139$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.11	1,667	52.7%878 W · 789 L	+45.5wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x581b…0290backed Under	54c	99$53 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$45.54	64	46.9%30 W · 34 L	-1.0wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	-3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xef2e…8d89backed Under	51c	98.04$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$48.04	334	42.8%143 W · 191 L	-17.9wins	-0.05per pick	48cpaid	-13%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Under	50c	98.03$49 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$49.02	2,361	48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L	-41.8wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Under	48c	83.33$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$43.33	2,602	50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L	-20.7wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Over	49c	75.49$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.99	2,902	38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L	-51.9wins	-0.02per pick	40cpaid	-5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdfaa…79a7backed Under	48c	62.5$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$32.5	342	46.8%160 W · 182 L	+18.1wins	+0.05per pick	42cpaid	+16.8%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfa49…949ebacked Under	55c	53$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.85	61	60.7%37 W · 24 L	+6.5wins	+0.11per pick	50cpaid	+21.3%equal weight	58+0.08 edge/pick
0x9d28…7a6dbacked Over	45c	44.73$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.26	938	49.7%466 W · 472 L	+36.0wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	+10.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe56e…0bb4backed Under	51c	39.22$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.22	242	48.3%117 W · 125 L	-4.0wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0fad…aa0fbacked Over	43c	36$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.48	238	50.8%121 W · 117 L	+3.6wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Under	57c	36$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.48	2,208	46.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L	+42.7wins	+0.02per pick	45cpaid	+2.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0ee5…96c2backed Under	49c	36$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.36	273	53.8%147 W · 126 L	+11.4wins	+0.04per pick	50cpaid	+9.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb95e…c6d6backed Over	49c	36$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.64	125	45.6%57 W · 68 L	-4.2wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-12.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfc33…9636backed Under	54c	34.91$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.06	192	42.7%82 W · 110 L	-10.7wins	-0.06per pick	48cpaid	-11.7%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2342…d7cebacked Over	46c	27$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.42	22	36.4%8 W · 14 L	-3.2wins	-0.15per pick	51cpaid	-27.2%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Under	48c	25$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13	2,657	49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L	+42.1wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x084c…7544backed Under	48c	22.11$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.5	93	45.2%42 W · 51 L	-4.1wins	-0.04per pick	50cpaid	-17.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc789…3907backed Over	46c	22$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.12	33	42.4%14 W · 19 L	-2.3wins	-0.07per pick	49cpaid	-13.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x93ae…ba41backed Over	50c	20$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	45	44.4%20 W · 25 L	+1.9wins	+0.04per pick	40cpaid	+38.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Bucks vs. Bulls: O/U 234.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event