TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Bulls (-3.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Bucksof Bulls, Bucks
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,504
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,530

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,504 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xee61…debfbacked Bucks54c1,804$970 inWon+$833.939,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Bulls45c1,000$450 inLost-$4504,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe962…663abacked Bulls48c399.99$192 inLost-$19284342.9%362 W · 481 L-39.1wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-11.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x43d7…dca3backed Bucks52c288.46$150 inWon+$138.4615052.7%79 W · 71 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Bucks52c252.74$132 inWon+$121.12,15351.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L+76.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Bulls47c224$105 inLost-$105.286,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4d48…66abbacked Bulls50c200$100 inLost-$10012651.6%65 W · 61 L-5.3wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-11.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x83a3…6292backed Bulls50c140$70 inLost-$7081845.7%374 W · 444 L+9.2wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf4dc…d394backed Bucks55c129$71 inWon+$58.056952.2%36 W · 33 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Bulls48c106.6$51 inLost-$51.173,12044.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L-7.6wins0.00per pick45cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a07…ce91backed Bulls45c106.21$48 inLost-$47.795131.4%16 W · 35 L-9.5wins-0.19per pick50cpaid-44.9%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0x83fc…13ccbacked Bulls46c94.11$43 inLost-$43.2912654%68 W · 58 L+6.0wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+13.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1889…0714backed Bucks52c91.6$48 inWon+$43.9721056.2%118 W · 92 L+10.9wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+15.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf10b…2041backed Bucks52c76.92$40 inWon+$36.9219548.7%95 W · 100 L-6.9wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-7.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Bulls48c74.76$36 inLost-$35.882,51249.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L+6.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Bucks55c73$40 inWon+$32.852,09147.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L-56.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfd07…cb4ebacked Bulls50c50$25 inLost-$2520143.3%87 W · 114 L-12.4wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-13.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x8f6c…ac71backed Bulls45c48$22 inLost-$21.64153.7%22 W · 19 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f91…20ccbacked Bucks55c48$26 inWon+$21.69258.7%54 W · 38 L+9.0wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+19.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa00f…8e56backed Bucks57c45$26 inWon+$19.3563745.8%292 W · 345 L+4.6wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-14.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x48a9…0d53backed Bucks55c39$21 inWon+$17.554957.1%28 W · 21 L+3.4wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+16.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2d3b…bd9fbacked Bulls45c36$16 inLost-$16.21520%3 W · 12 L-4.1wins-0.27per pick47cpaid-53.9%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x373a…668abacked Bulls45c34$15 inLost-$15.33240.6%13 W · 19 L-4.0wins-0.13per pick53cpaid-25.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Bulls46c31.4$14 inLost-$14.442,90238.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L-51.9wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Bulls46c25$12 inLost-$11.52,65749.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L+42.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.