NBA · resolved market
Spread: Bulls (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x800675dc43ceef3c83d9875b2ab567cc18c2106e589b18867f8e2cb24df820c0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Bucksof Bulls, Bucks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,748
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,760
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,748 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Bucks | 46c | 20,216$9,360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,855.99 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Bulls | 54c | 18,538$9,992 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,992.34 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Bulls | 53c | 4,006$2,121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,120.52 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Bucks | 46c | 1,500$690 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$810 | 179 | 31.8%57 W · 122 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Bucks | 46c | 593.22$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.66 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Bulls | 49c | 303.8$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.96 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7140…47e3backed Bucks | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.77 | 126 | 50%63 W · 63 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee20…5b37backed Bucks | 55c | 187.8$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 503 | 47.9%241 W · 262 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Bulls | 53c | 150.94$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 660 | 46.8%309 W · 351 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Bulls | 53c | 75$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.75 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Bucks | 46c | 41.8$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.77 | 938 | 49.7%466 W · 472 L | +36.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc014…1d3cbacked Bucks | 48c | 29.17$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc33…9636backed Bucks | 47c | 23.23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.31 | 192 | 42.7%82 W · 110 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3888…0755backed Bulls | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 250 | 58.4%146 W · 104 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Bulls (-1.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Bulls (-2.5)Bucks won
- Bucks vs. BullsBucks won
- Bucks vs. Bulls: 1H MoneylineBucks won
- Bucks vs. Bulls: 1H O/U 120.5Under won
- Bucks vs. Bulls: O/U 232.5Under won
- Bucks vs. Bulls: O/U 233.5Under won
- Bucks vs. Bulls: O/U 234.5Under won
- Bucks vs. Bulls: O/U 235.5Under won
- Bucks vs. Bulls: O/U 236.5Under won
- Spread: Bulls (-2.5)Bucks won
- Spread: Bulls (-3.5)Bucks won
- Spread: Bulls (-4.5)Bucks won
- Spread: Bulls (-5.5)Bucks won
- Spread: Bulls (-6.5)Bucks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.