NBA · resolved market

Spread: Bulls (-6.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9f08483a01fa9498534ed5192f5ddbff981f34d67cabf7708bf3457120f8ad55

Rebuilt 20 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Bucksof Bulls, Bucks
Resolved: Dec 28, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $6,926
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $8,329

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,926 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x986c…dbc6backed Bucks	67c	1,329$888 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$440.75	476	51.7%246 W · 230 L	-6.4wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1733…1e15backed Bulls	45c	1,204$542 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$541.64	1,157	47.9%554 W · 603 L	-19.9wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Bucks	55c	1,189$658 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$530.56	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2bd5…26ccbacked Bucks	61c	1,000$610 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$390	516	51%263 W · 253 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Bulls	37c	676.84$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250.32	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa965…3565backed Bulls	33c	500$165 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$165	1,911	45.4%868 W · 1,043 L	+22.1wins	+0.01per pick	44cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Bulls	33c	358.8$119 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$118.94	4,682	49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L	+27.2wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Bulls	33c	297.75$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98.26	6,213	50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L	+53.8wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Bulls	37c	259.99$96 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$95.72	3,668	41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L	-70.7wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-15.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1ec4…defabacked Bulls	50c	240$119 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$119.04	824	40.4%333 W · 491 L	+6.1wins	+0.01per pick	40cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd14…5ab9backed Bucks	63c	106$67 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$39.22	101	43.6%44 W · 57 L	-4.6wins	-0.05per pick	48cpaid	-10.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfda3…f186backed Bulls	40c	100$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-1.5wins	-0.37per pick	37cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Bulls	40c	100$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	2,602	50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L	-20.7wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe47b…1b4bbacked Bulls	44c	100$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44	357	39.8%142 W · 215 L	-25.0wins	-0.07per pick	47cpaid	-18.3%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x5256…24a5backed Bucks	56c	89.11$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$39.21	52	46.2%24 W · 28 L	-3.7wins	-0.07per pick	53cpaid	-13.1%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x20ec…fa43backed Bucks	59c	84.75$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$34.75	610	56.1%342 W · 268 L	-3.3wins	-0.01per pick	57cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d4c…2e02backed Bucks	65c	76.8$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.8	96	60.4%58 W · 38 L	-2.0wins	-0.02per pick	62cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Bulls	25c	75.44$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.06	1,786	53.2%950 W · 836 L	+52.7wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x77c4…d390backed Bucks	59c	68.32$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.32	207	62.3%129 W · 78 L	+6.1wins	+0.03per pick	59cpaid	+5.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Bucks	56c	60$34 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.29	2,091	47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L	-56.6wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x06e6…87e6backed Bucks	56c	59$33 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.96	446	48%214 W · 232 L	-12.6wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-4.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa00f…8e56backed Bucks	59c	55.45$33 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.87	637	45.8%292 W · 345 L	+4.6wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	-14.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x682f…3265backed Bucks	62c	48.39$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.39	1,389	54.9%762 W · 627 L	+16.7wins	+0.01per pick	54cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d6e…148bbacked Bulls	37c	46$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.02	29	44.8%13 W · 16 L	-2.2wins	-0.08per pick	52cpaid	-15.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbea1…1408backed Bucks	57c	34.05$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.64	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	-1.6wins	-0.23per pick	52cpaid	-46.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8e78…fcb4backed Bulls	37c	34$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.58	27	48.1%13 W · 14 L	-1.1wins	-0.04per pick	52cpaid	-9.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfc33…9636backed Bulls	47c	30.45$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.31	192	42.7%82 W · 110 L	-10.7wins	-0.06per pick	48cpaid	-11.7%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5df5…c44cbacked Bucks	60c	20$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8	620	47.3%293 W · 327 L	-7.2wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Bulls (-6.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event