NBA · resolved market

Bucks vs. Bulls: 1H Moneyline

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe4ee9e2f089b47571b41d380a22bfcd1e4f85199cd86e031147e51b2e8d1b2a6

Rebuilt 52 minutes ago.

Winning outcome: Bucksof Bucks, Bulls
Resolved: Dec 27, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $1,354
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $1,404

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,354 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x470e…07c0backed Bulls	54c	184$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.36	73	53.4%39 W · 34 L	+2.6wins	+0.04per pick	50cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9f56…f93cbacked Bucks	38c	156.39$59 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$96.96	46	47.8%22 W · 24 L	+1.3wins	+0.03per pick	45cpaid	+5.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc0e6…71e4backed Bulls	53c	120$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.6	68	39.7%27 W · 41 L	-6.0wins	-0.09per pick	49cpaid	-15.3%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf292…1cc7backed Bulls	54c	74.96$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.48	126	44.4%56 W · 70 L	-4.7wins	-0.04per pick	48cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Bucks	60c	59.85$36 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.23	4,878	48%2,341 W · 2,537 L	+61.9wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x06f4…758dbacked Bulls	54c	45$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.3	33	48.5%16 W · 17 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce9b…0bc0backed Bucks	46c	44$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.76	29	48.3%14 W · 15 L	-0.8wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xddf6…9bd5backed Bucks	46c	43$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.22	25	44%11 W · 14 L	-1.6wins	-0.06per pick	50cpaid	-14%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9430…97cebacked Bucks	46c	39$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.06	36	47.2%17 W · 19 L	-0.9wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-7%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f20…eaf6backed Bucks	47c	32.13$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.13	85	43.5%37 W · 48 L	-3.1wins	-0.04per pick	47cpaid	-13.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x60a6…7ed2backed Bucks	47c	32$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.96	20	55%11 W · 9 L	+0.6wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	+5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xede6…89c4backed Bucks	47c	31$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.43	50	56%28 W · 22 L	+1.7wins	+0.03per pick	53cpaid	+5.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfbba…e95bbacked Bucks	46c	30$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.2	36	41.7%15 W · 21 L	-3.2wins	-0.09per pick	50cpaid	-17.3%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd9a7…261bbacked Bucks	47c	28$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.84	42	42.9%18 W · 24 L	-2.8wins	-0.07per pick	50cpaid	-16.2%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x51e5…9fcabacked Bucks	46c	23$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.42	17	47.1%8 W · 9 L	-1.2wins	-0.07per pick	54cpaid	-11.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdee3…7b2ebacked Bucks	46c	22$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.88	15	40%6 W · 9 L	-2.1wins	-0.14per pick	54cpaid	-27.1%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x62ab…6f93backed Bulls	55c	20$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	9	55.6%5 W · 4 L	+0.2wins	+0.03per pick	53cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d28…7a6dbacked Bulls	54c	18.69$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.09	938	49.7%466 W · 472 L	+36.0wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	+10.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Bucks vs. Bulls: 1H Moneyline

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event