TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Bulls (-5.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Bucksof Bulls, Bucks
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$13,274
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$12,407

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,274 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6d3c…d294backed Bulls47c3,687$1,733 inLost-$1,732.844,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Bulls39c2,646$1,034 inLost-$1,033.798,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x85b8…85e7backed Bucks53c1,736$920 inWon+$815.851376.9%10 W · 3 L+3.6wins+0.28per pick49cpaid+55.1%equal weight61+0.09 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Bulls51c1,704$871 inLost-$8711,91054.3%1,038 W · 872 L+25.2wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Bucks52c1,689$880 inWon+$808.699,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7b23…e20fbacked Bucks59c805$475 inWon+$330.0549938.9%194 W · 305 L-23.4wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-16.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa61f…7993backed Bulls40c500$200 inLost-$20061747.8%295 W · 322 L+4.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Bucks60c488.5$293 inWon+$195.46,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1733…1e15backed Bucks50c488$244 inWon+$2441,15747.9%554 W · 603 L-19.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa852…d55dbacked Bulls42c482.64$202 inLost-$202.365339.6%21 W · 32 L-3.4wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-6.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Bucks58c400.14$232 inWon+$168.064,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe962…663abacked Bulls50c400$200 inLost-$20084342.9%362 W · 481 L-39.1wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-11.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3502…7057backed Bucks59c152.54$90 inWon+$62.5418256.6%103 W · 79 L+7.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+8.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9061…9510backed Bucks61c108$66 inWon+$42.127162%44 W · 27 L+8.4wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+22%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Bulls42c100$42 inLost-$422,65749.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L+42.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe1c0…e672backed Bulls41c100$41 inLost-$41714.3%1 W · 6 L-2.1wins-0.30per pick45cpaid-68.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xfda3…f186backed Bulls42c100$42 inLost-$4240%0 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3eac…67cbbacked Bulls42c100$42 inLost-$4215844.9%71 W · 87 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeff8…1bcfbacked Bucks61c97$59 inWon+$37.833145.2%14 W · 17 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-12.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Bulls42c95.24$40 inLost-$402,60250.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L-20.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc599…2cecbacked Bucks49c90$44 inWon+$45.973445.5%334 W · 400 L+8.9wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc210…39fcbacked Bucks50c90$45 inWon+$4523153.2%123 W · 108 L+6.6wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7d48…b9a1backed Bulls50c70$35 inLost-$3519254.7%105 W · 87 L+5.2wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd5ff…af12backed Bucks53c56.6$30 inWon+$26.613651.5%70 W · 66 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4fb4…8830backed Bulls40c50$20 inLost-$2020241.1%83 W · 119 L-5.0wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x733e…c558backed Bulls51c39.22$20 inLost-$203748.6%18 W · 19 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-5.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x83fc…13ccbacked Bucks62c36.35$23 inWon+$13.7912654%68 W · 58 L+6.0wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+13.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb4f7…1cddbacked Bulls39c35$14 inLost-$13.656741.8%28 W · 39 L-3.9wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-10%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Bulls41c30$12 inLost-$12.31,78653.2%950 W · 836 L+52.7wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3cce…ebfebacked Bulls39c26$10 inLost-$10.143452.9%18 W · 16 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb81d…c6c0backed Bucks61c19$12 inWon+$7.419360.2%56 W · 37 L+10.4wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+22.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.