NBA · resolved market

Bucks vs. Bulls: O/U 235.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x26422e4aebdfc4acb38c707baf9abc0ae87e7b4df1e8eab33ad4950877fd5b81

Rebuilt 6 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Underof Over, Under
Resolved: Dec 28, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $28,876
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $29,042

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,876 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under	50c	8,839$4,420 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,419.5	1,820	52.1%948 W · 872 L	+48.5wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+4.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Over	48c	6,319$3,014 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,013.59	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Under	50c	5,060$2,530 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,530	2,512	49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L	+6.9wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed Over	50c	5,050$2,525 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,525	1,212	48.3%586 W · 626 L	-20.4wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x535b…25a9backed Under	55c	3,636$2,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,636.36	125	55.2%69 W · 56 L	+1.4wins	+0.01per pick	54cpaid	+2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdf43…ae9abacked Over	50c	2,242$1,121 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,121	296	52.7%156 W · 140 L	-8.7wins	-0.03per pick	56cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over	46c	1,684$774 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$774.18	2,736	46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L	-67.4wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xea22…747abacked Over	2c	1,500$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	679	21.4%145 W · 534 L	+32.4wins	+0.05per pick	17cpaid	+33.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa965…3565backed Over	43c	1,500$650 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$650	1,911	45.4%868 W · 1,043 L	+22.1wins	+0.01per pick	44cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8314…0f1ebacked Under	52c	1,294$673 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$621	331	50.8%168 W · 163 L	+1.5wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Under	53c	919.08$483 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$436.16	4,325	47%2,031 W · 2,294 L	-69.5wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9519…3b2ebacked Under	55c	545.45$300 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$245.45	178	56.2%100 W · 78 L	+5.3wins	+0.03per pick	53cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Over	50c	528.03$264 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$264.02	2,361	48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L	-41.8wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd4da…3175backed Over	48c	510$245 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$244.8	715	47.7%341 W · 374 L	-26.9wins	-0.04per pick	51cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x309d…3a8abacked Under	57c	159$91 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$68.37	65	41.5%27 W · 38 L	-5.6wins	-0.09per pick	50cpaid	-18.3%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Under	51c	148$75 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$72.52	1,715	44.5%764 W · 951 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0fad…aa0fbacked Over	14c	144$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.01	238	50.8%121 W · 117 L	+3.6wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x336a…1915backed Over	45c	141.02$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.46	39	43.6%17 W · 22 L	-3.1wins	-0.08per pick	52cpaid	-23.1%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9d28…7a6dbacked Over	45c	111.67$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.19	938	49.7%466 W · 472 L	+36.0wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	+10.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Under	51c	78.43$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$38.43	2,602	50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L	-20.7wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf79e…9a84backed Over	42c	71.87$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.19	220	48.6%107 W · 113 L	-2.1wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x28a2…91a4backed Under	57c	62$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.66	88	52.3%46 W · 42 L	+1.9wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+2.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa60b…c728backed Under	52c	54$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.92	340	53.8%183 W · 157 L	+16.7wins	+0.05per pick	49cpaid	+10.6%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xeff8…1bcfbacked Under	58c	52$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.84	31	45.2%14 W · 17 L	-1.5wins	-0.05per pick	50cpaid	-12.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc789…3907backed Over	43c	38$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.34	33	42.4%14 W · 19 L	-2.3wins	-0.07per pick	49cpaid	-13.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6264…7b6bbacked Under	57c	36$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.48	16	50%8 W · 8 L	-1.2wins	-0.07per pick	57cpaid	-16.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeb01…2783backed Over	44c	36$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.84	47	48.9%23 W · 24 L	-1.2wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	+2.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x864c…735fbacked Over	43c	36$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.48	326	49.7%162 W · 164 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0ee5…96c2backed Under	52c	36$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.28	273	53.8%147 W · 126 L	+11.4wins	+0.04per pick	50cpaid	+9.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb95e…c6d6backed Over	47c	36$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.92	125	45.6%57 W · 68 L	-4.2wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-12.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xebc0…fa41backed Under	59c	35.87$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.71	524	60.1%315 W · 209 L	+35.6wins	+0.07per pick	53cpaid	+32.1%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xacac…bd06backed Over	43c	35$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.05	31	38.7%12 W · 19 L	-3.9wins	-0.12per pick	51cpaid	-24.3%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xaa6d…d6bdbacked Over	43c	33$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.19	21	61.9%13 W · 8 L	+2.2wins	+0.10per pick	52cpaid	+18.4%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x68cc…24adbacked Over	43c	28$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.04	33	39.4%13 W · 20 L	-3.8wins	-0.11per pick	51cpaid	-23.3%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x0068…d7b0backed Over	43c	25$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.75	32	34.4%11 W · 21 L	-6.0wins	-0.19per pick	53cpaid	-34.4%equal weight	38-0.10 edge/pick
0x7219…fcf7backed Over	42c	24$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.08	31	54.8%17 W · 14 L	+1.1wins	+0.03per pick	51cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d61…d43cbacked Over	50c	20$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	288	52.8%152 W · 136 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	52cpaid	+3.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Bucks vs. Bulls: O/U 235.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event