TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Bulls (-2.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Bucksof Bulls, Bucks
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$183,974
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$184,390

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $183,974 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4924…3782backed Bulls51c176,865$90,145 inLost-$90,145.2587451.5%450 W · 424 L+15.8wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb27…c56ebacked Bucks49c144,444$70,778 inWon+$73,666.4487144.7%389 W · 482 L+14.9wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Bucks49c19,638$9,623 inWon+$10,015.692,29851.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L+65.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Bucks49c7,185$3,543 inWon+$3,642.249,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Bucks50c5,000$2,500 inWon+$2,5001,82052.1%948 W · 872 L+48.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbf51…4a30backed Bulls50c2,000$1,000 inLost-$1,00076746.4%356 W · 411 L-16.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Bucks50c1,491$740 inWon+$751.436,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbe5f…d795backed Bulls50c1,000$500 inLost-$50027051.5%139 W · 131 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6036…d2ccbacked Bucks51c588.98$300 inWon+$288.640648%195 W · 211 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Bucks50c410$205 inWon+$2052,15351.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L+76.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3846…c908backed Bucks50c384$192 inWon+$1922450%12 W · 12 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Bucks49c295$145 inWon+$150.452,79650.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L+27.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6e57…21cbbacked Bucks52c240.38$125 inWon+$115.385655.4%31 W · 25 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+7.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xab9b…d007backed Bulls49c204.08$100 inLost-$1003844.7%17 W · 21 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-0.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd04d…bfc2backed Bulls49c203.92$100 inLost-$99.922,43549.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L+30.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa8f3…e544backed Bucks51c200$102 inWon+$9878652.4%412 W · 374 L+14.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b20…99e9backed Bucks50c200$100 inWon+$10066046.8%309 W · 351 L-16.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-5.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdf60…f8d5backed Bucks50c200$100 inWon+$1009844.9%44 W · 54 L-5.0wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-10.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xeddf…a953backed Bucks51c196.08$100 inWon+$96.0836143.5%157 W · 204 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Bucks44c176.07$77 inWon+$98.63,34243.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L+81.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1488…0672backed Bucks52c144$75 inWon+$69.125058%29 W · 21 L+4.0wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+14.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1600…5a08backed Bulls35c100$35 inLost-$3514127.7%39 W · 102 L-16.4wins-0.12per pick39cpaid-26.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xb0cb…85babacked Bulls49c100$49 inLost-$4952242.7%223 W · 299 L-1.3wins0.00per pick43cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84b8…d83abacked Bulls49c81.63$40 inLost-$401225%3 W · 9 L-3.2wins-0.27per pick52cpaid-50.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Bucks58c73.56$43 inWon+$30.558,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Bulls49c35.5$17 inLost-$17.43,12044.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L-7.6wins0.00per pick45cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc7d0…de52backed Bulls48c33$16 inLost-$15.842548%12 W · 13 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-9.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7500…ae85backed Bulls48c31$15 inLost-$14.882748.1%13 W · 14 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x934a…9096backed Bulls48c31$15 inLost-$14.882437.5%9 W · 15 L-3.6wins-0.15per pick53cpaid-28.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4889…9b17backed Bulls48c28$13 inLost-$13.442751.9%14 W · 13 L-0.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid+1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e6c…9a1dbacked Bulls50c20$10 inLost-$105853.4%31 W · 27 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.