TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Bucks vs. Bulls

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Bucksof Bucks, Bulls
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,914,208
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,098,776

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,914,208 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 603 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4924…3782backed Bulls56c515,829$288,864 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$288,864.1387451.5%450 W · 424 L+15.8wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb27…c56ebacked Bucks44c345,997$152,699 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$193,298.7887144.7%389 W · 482 L+14.9wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc31d…4ebebacked Bucks44c208,463$91,724 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116,739.562552%13 W · 12 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x060e…2384backed Bucks46c155,955$71,073 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84,882.338037.5%30 W · 50 L-5.0wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-7.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Bucks59c111,773$66,367 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45,405.971,04549%512 W · 533 L+21.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x18d1…dbcbbacked Bulls55c91,108$50,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50,0009641.7%40 W · 56 L-4.0wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-3.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc8b4…f05dbacked Bulls56c64,536$35,911 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35,910.8366853.4%357 W · 311 L+22.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+7.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Bucks60c46,039$27,404 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,634.735,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Bulls15c39,934$5,835 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,834.621,19032%381 W · 809 L-58.1wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-34.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf6d0…9391backed Bulls62c35,850$22,109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,109.0327247.1%128 W · 144 L-4.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x64b5…7543backed Bucks45c25,568$11,542 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,025.2635235.8%126 W · 226 L+5.1wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+10.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b71…8044backed Bulls56c25,000$13,993 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,993.138939.3%35 W · 54 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+2.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Bulls38c23,020$8,665 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,665.161,00334.7%348 W · 655 L-44.7wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-35.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Bulls55c21,247$11,685 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,684.946,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xead0…f3babacked Bucks46c20,001$9,167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,834.181,12448.6%546 W · 578 L+13.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd9b…414dbacked Bulls56c17,500$9,746 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,746.0951844.4%230 W · 288 L+11.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+8.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Bucks53c16,918$9,032 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,886.071,34129.9%401 W · 940 L-53.8wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-35.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1e3a…4033backed Bulls60c16,667$10,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,00034062.1%211 W · 129 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Bucks42c15,452$6,551 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,901.572,29851.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L+65.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc3c3…eec8backed Bucks42c15,000$6,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,70038248.7%186 W · 196 L+13.9wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+0.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x62fb…4d60backed Bucks42c14,161$5,948 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,213.4235547.3%168 W · 187 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf11…8399backed Bucks32c13,900$4,448 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,451.9937539.5%148 W · 227 L-1.2wins0.00per pick40cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd538…cc31backed Bucks42c13,199$5,544 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,655.4221450%107 W · 107 L-14.6wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-12.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1d56…7486backed Bulls59c13,199$7,787 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,787.4117861.2%109 W · 69 L+11.4wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+14.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd903…bf9dbacked Bucks61c13,068$7,927 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,140.2744654.3%242 W · 204 L+21.5wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+5.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x906f…88b4backed Bucks43c11,724$5,041 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,682.7622453.1%119 W · 105 L+7.6wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x84db…aeebbacked Bulls54c11,095$5,992 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,992.021,37450.1%689 W · 685 L+34.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x03ac…4f55backed Bulls67c11,025$7,442 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,441.736741.4%152 W · 215 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick42cpaid+3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Bulls55c10,813$5,896 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,896.094,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x94d7…bef5backed Bulls1c10,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10025925.9%67 W · 192 L+6.5wins+0.03per pick23cpaid+8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Bucks45c10,000$4,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,499.991,26944.5%565 W · 704 L+32.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Bucks47c9,479$4,459 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,019.553,59150.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L+21.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a22…c3b5backed Bucks44c9,183$4,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,183.4716130.4%49 W · 112 L-6.8wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-23.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1692…831fbacked Bucks51c8,697$4,475 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,221.916051.7%31 W · 29 L0.0wins0.00per pick52cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Bulls42c8,597$3,583 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,582.954,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfce1…9ce7backed Bucks37c8,329$3,082 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,247.1335450.8%180 W · 174 L+12.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x68df…4815backed Bulls54c8,045$4,344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,344.392240.9%9 W · 13 L-2.4wins-0.11per pick52cpaid-21.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4137…586cbacked Bulls66c8,007$5,247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,246.9847043.8%206 W · 264 L-22.2wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-12.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Bucks41c7,496$3,073 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,423.439,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f71…58c2backed Bulls55c7,269$3,998 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,997.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Bucks34c7,194$2,468 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,726.652,04548.4%990 W · 1,055 L-30.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xca3f…8078backed Bulls62c6,769$4,217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,217.1455346.8%259 W · 294 L-6.5wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc94a…9401backed Bulls55c6,640$3,652 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,65240350.1%202 W · 201 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x817b…3c25backed Bulls53c6,535$3,492 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,492.491,04841.1%431 W · 617 L+23.6wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc22f…ae5abacked Bucks46c6,522$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,522.061100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+117.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4818…fde0backed Bulls51c6,000$3,060 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,06051753.8%278 W · 239 L+11.6wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7d43…bc5ebacked Bulls55c6,000$3,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,3009451.1%48 W · 46 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1867…92cabacked Bulls55c6,000$3,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,30045348.1%218 W · 235 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Bulls56c5,976$3,324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,323.912,09147.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L-56.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x019d…2b01backed Bulls48c5,962$2,850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,85029037.9%110 W · 180 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-4.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x88a2…d974backed Bucks45c5,778$2,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,177.785947.5%28 W · 31 L+3.6wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+24%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Bucks40c5,635$2,277 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,358.181,90854.5%1,040 W · 868 L+53.7wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed Bulls53c5,500$2,925 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,92573649.9%367 W · 369 L-5.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7bd8…aeabbacked Bulls57c4,737$2,694 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,694.2830947.6%147 W · 162 L-0.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa07c…11a0backed Bulls56c4,375$2,450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,45018140.3%73 W · 108 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+11.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbde3…4a49backed Bulls37c4,257$1,595 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,595.4427251.1%139 W · 133 L+10.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+7.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfaa5…7cc9backed Bucks42c4,095$1,720 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,375.13855.3%21 W · 17 L+3.1wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x41b7…f6babacked Bucks42c4,000$1,680 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,319.9980146.4%372 W · 429 L-1.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5116…58c4backed Bulls64c4,000$2,560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,559.9976850.3%386 W · 382 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xef26…05babacked Bucks64c3,873$2,495 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,378.1312143%52 W · 69 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8cbb…acb2backed Bulls58c3,600$2,090 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,089.9989050.4%449 W · 441 L+4.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x088e…bc56backed Bulls60c3,286$1,975 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,975.055253.8%28 W · 24 L+3.9wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+23.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe6ee…b3aabacked Bulls52c3,150$1,638 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,63836248.9%177 W · 185 L-6.6wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-3.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2731…43b9backed Bucks36c3,150$1,134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,0163100%3 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+99.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x542c…9536backed Bulls58c3,000$1,740 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,7408348.2%40 W · 43 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2aad…2820backed Bulls68c2,943$2,001 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,001.3210%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5a0c…9db8backed Bucks41c2,800$1,148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,651.9221538.1%82 W · 133 L+7.6wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+20.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Bulls46c2,786$1,269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,269.478,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f99…c209backed Bucks69c2,698$1,850 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$847.7513155%72 W · 59 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x699f…d5c6backed Bucks39c2,628$1,016 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,612.3336950.1%185 W · 184 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-6.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb820…cbe7backed Bucks36c2,541$915 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,626.0958951.3%302 W · 287 L+6.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Bulls54c2,500$1,350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,3501,66752.7%878 W · 789 L+45.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x52ed…8db7backed Bulls63c2,500$1,575 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,574.9739349.1%193 W · 200 L+1.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cf5…6440backed Bucks41c2,440$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,439.4646928.4%133 W · 336 L+2.3wins0.00per pick28cpaid-4.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x4309…7456backed Bulls63c2,399$1,519 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,519.3461336.1%221 W · 392 L-6.4wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-10%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Bucks45c2,397$1,079 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,318.341,82052.1%948 W · 872 L+48.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x92f1…9b81backed Bulls38c2,307$883 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88312533.6%42 W · 83 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfceb…f7c6backed Bulls60c2,268$1,360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,360.22333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.22per pick56cpaid-14.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc922…2618backed Bulls55c2,200$1,210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,21026755.8%149 W · 118 L+12.9wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+10.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9314…d74cbacked Bulls58c2,144$1,244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,243.52520%1 W · 4 L-2.3wins-0.46per pick66cpaid-70.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Bulls55c2,079$1,147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,147.44,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c49…dd2dbacked Bulls65c2,000$1,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,30020048%96 W · 104 L-7.6wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-8.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe405…bf91backed Bulls55c2,000$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,10048448.8%236 W · 248 L-5.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xff5b…c583backed Bulls68c2,000$1,360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,36020847.6%99 W · 109 L-7.6wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-12.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1520…378fbacked Bulls68c2,000$1,360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,359.9920453.9%110 W · 94 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+6.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x17b9…430dbacked Bulls37c1,939$726 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$725.5913040%52 W · 78 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9534…1fe8backed Bucks41c1,920$778 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,142.526247.7%125 W · 137 L+14.2wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+9.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3c80…249abacked Bucks52c1,908$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$908.33450%17 W · 17 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-7.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x06e6…87e6backed Bulls55c1,906$1,048 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,048.4644648%214 W · 232 L-12.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf2c2…4de7backed Bulls55c1,800$990 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99049142.6%209 W · 282 L+12.1wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbf51…4a30backed Bulls56c1,786$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00076746.4%356 W · 411 L-16.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x344b…f7fcbacked Bulls37c1,758$655 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$655.3746940.3%189 W · 280 L-7.0wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-17.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4bd6…918ebacked Bulls18c1,667$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3006811.8%8 W · 60 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick9cpaid-25.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x236d…5e45backed Bulls60c1,667$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0008458.3%49 W · 35 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x15ff…b983backed Bucks41c1,620$665 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$955.83475%3 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.11per pick64cpaid+25.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa046…d2c6backed Bulls64c1,600$1,024 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,024650%3 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick54cpaid+11.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x05e3…4b87backed Bucks63c1,589$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$589.1647856.7%271 W · 207 L+11.6wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcd33…bc9fbacked Bulls63c1,571$990 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$989.73475%3 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick62cpaid+27.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0488…10bfbacked Bulls64c1,550$992 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$992757.1%4 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick58cpaid+2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Bulls58c1,547$895 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$894.822,51249.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L+6.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.